MDScienceTeacher

Yeah that is the best explanation I have seen.. ever about this... and it makes sense to me. The one thing that really stands out over the last couple of years is that we haven't been able to pad our stats with the early December event.. (remember the Dec 5th series?). It is purely anecdotal but it just feels we don't snow in December any more. On a positive note, I do think we are getting close to our typical climatological window where we see 2-4 weeks of solid storm tracks and persistent cold air. What happens during this period will be crucial in determining whether or not we score or we are left to hoping for a late season miracle while fighting sun angle.

LOL. climate crisis has nothing to do with shitty storm tracks. When low pressure is tracking through Indiana, its wont snow here, no matter how cold it is. ETA.. Actually I take this back.. I really dont know enough about the interplay between our warming climate and atmospheric synoptic patterns.. but yay fantasy snow!

It has been so warm.. with the dominant SE ridge. When we start seeing cold air sinking in to our area, seeing that big boundary layer is not surprising. I like the look!

Over the last coupe of weeks I have noticed that there has been a ton of speculation and debate about Lamar Jackson's ability to play and how this relates to his risk appetite given the fact that there are literally 100s of millions of dollars on the line. I dont know how hurt he was or is, but I do know he was walking without a limp on the side line for the past several weeks. Great football players play hurt. This is actually one of things that make a leader and a champion. I am not a Pittsburg Steelers fan.. but Ben.. he would have been out there. I mean shit.. I am pretty sure Huntley played though a serious injury on Sunday. The thing that I dont understand about this whole thing is that if you look at the "rhetoric" around this whole situation.. if you imply that Lamar Jackson weighed his upcoming contract while determining whether or not he should play, then you are somehow wrong or insensitive. Or somehow accusing him of doing something that he is not doing. This is rubbish. Think about it for a second... he did the normal human nature thing. If you could get a $200 million contract by not playing and not risking getting hurt.. you are probably gonna do just that. If you had the chance to win a super bowl and that was most important thing... more important than the money... then your out there playing. He chose the money.. most people would and I dont blame him.

Oh wow! Thanks... For some reason my browser didnt give me the latest run.. yeah everything is looking a lot better!!!

Pivotal goes out 240 on the hi res.. and the first storm keeps getting colder.

I am usual the last person to be a debby downer. But I wouldnt be so confident about mountains. Especially not in the Mid Atlantic region. Until We see a major shift in the storm track and overall temp profiles across the nation, I am going with this solution from the euro.

2014 and 2015 featured many clipper systems. Some of them producing really good snowfalls for our region. A lot of people forget that January 2015 featured some of the coldest temperatures our region has experienced in recorded history.

Warm atlantic is always a poor excuse of non snow...if the track is good and we have strong hp...it will snow Exactly. This is what I keep telling people. If the storm track continues to set up to our west with transient HP systems its not going to snow.... Until this changes, there is no reason to worry about water temps or warmer background temps.

We will get them back.. history tells as this much. I think we just need a more favorable storm track and better timing with the cold air. Look at the period before Christmas.. it doesnt get much colder than that. In December. Period. We also had an extended period of blocking. We just need timing and little luck. We are on an epic losing streak. I wouldnt be surprised if the tables turn in a few week and we get several decent snowfalls.

I really dont understand how there is 0 cold air around on the GFS with that big hp and the bombing low to our NE. lets see what the euro does in the temps department.

Well the operational GFS was way north. It literally almost cut. That is if we are talking about the second threat (1/13-1/15)

Oh I just realized that you are on the eastern shore.. didnt you guys have a top ten season last year?

For years, all I would care about would be the big time snow events. If the long range model wasnt putting out 12+ inches, then I didnt care. Over the years however, I have learned that this is a losing proposition and promotes misery in my life. I think I finally have gotten to the point where I would be happy with just some snow. Or maybe more frequent smaller storms. Getting wrapped up in the KUs and BECS and HECS and Bombs etc is a tough business to be in..

I dont think this is a big one at all... but if you like simple straight forward user-friendly 4-8 inch area wide snow storm... this might be our best bet.

Also.. dont believe what the GFS is spitting out in terms of that bombing low pressure over the canadian maritimes. Here is the GFS for the first system. Look how insane that is: Here is the Ensemble for the same time period: The ensemble favors the second system and keeps it from getting squashed/ suppressed to our south

There is a ton of agreement 174 hours out that a big storm is going to set up along with a trough over the eastern half of the country. Look at the agreement in the clustering of lows over Colorado. Thats our storm for the 1/14 - 1/15 period: Now look at the 500 MB height anomaly a couple of panels later: The trajectory of the isobars (WSW to ENE orientation) out in front of the upper level low steers that the storm just to our south. The low pressure out in the Atlantic also forces things to our south and reinforces cold air. It's a nice look IMHO.

I have been reading this discussion all morning. Is this the farthest things go back with reasonably reliable data?

It's my number 1 in terms of dynamics - ie thundersnow, rates, accumulation over a short period. Just an insane event.

I have been reading up on Anafront snow events and the key ingredient is the speed and direction of the forward motion of the front along with the wind direction behind the front. With a slower moving front and wind direction behind the front oriented perpendicular to the cold front, there is a local zone which can still produce enough "lift" in the atmosphere to produce precipitation. I would need someone who knows what they are talking about to explain better, but my suspicion is that the blocking to our north and east slows the system down enough to produce the anafront anomaly.

This

This is a completely different set up. In 2011 the upper level vort passed just to our south making it a nearly perfect vort passage. There was crazy dynamics with that storm.. but it was a more of a "standard" set up with a storm passing just to our south. This is anafront snow. And in order for anafront snow to work a lot of things need to come together perfectly. Many times the models will over due these ingredients and show accumulating snow for our region but once it comes we wind up seeing only flurries on the back side of a front.

The difference in the set up btw the GFS and the Euro can be seen clearly here at the five day mark. Look at the low pressure aloft over the North East Canada: This feature looks to steer the upper low diving south out of Canada all the way down in to Northern Alabama. At the same time on the euro, there is ridging out in front of the upper level low which allows the storm to cut. The 12Z/ 18Z GFS basically looked the same wrt to the overall upper air pattern.. definitely not a step towards the euro imho.

I cant believe that just happened