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MDScienceTeacher

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  1. MDScienceTeacher
    The cycles depicted above are caused by variation in the earths orbit and the resulting impact on solar radiation. That’s an external force that is so much greater than manmade C02 emissions. It will be interesting to see if the current warming has any impact on glacial interglacial cycles but to say that they are not germane any more is foolish. Anything generated by the earth follows the laws of conservation of mass.. this generally limits the level of impact human beings can have on climate. Solar radiation on the other hand will likely trump anything that comes from the earth itself.
  2. MDScienceTeacher
    yup.. I could tell the improvement without even comparing it to the previous run. This will probably be one of those deals where rates will dictate the change over and if we get a stronger ULL it will help to mix in the cold air aloft earlier.. Nice to see the euro actually trend in our favor for once..
  3. MDScienceTeacher
    Do you have a sounding?
  4. MDScienceTeacher
    It we cool to see Flacco , Ray and Lamar each on stage tonight!
  5. MDScienceTeacher
    This is Definitely a trend on the euro
  6. MDScienceTeacher
    If you were in central pa the gfs and euro are pretty locked in. The only difference with the gfs is that the 850s crash a lot earlier and we get in the comma head for a few hours with some heavy/ dynamic snowfall. At this point I am thinking a day out on the slopes at liberty might be a safe bet.
  7. MDScienceTeacher
    Not sure if anyone has it faster but the low is maybe 50 miles further south at 84 hours
  8. MDScienceTeacher
    I am pretty sure the vast majority of that is the first storm.
  9. MDScienceTeacher
    To me it looks more like variation in the timing more then anything else.
  10. MDScienceTeacher
    Not a member above the mason dixon. It is less than 5 days and it hasn’t shown a run without any snow in the ma in like 10 runs. I have never in my life seen the euro trend toward the gfs when we need it to. Maybe just maybe this will be the miracle and the euro caves here in about 30 minutes
  11. MDScienceTeacher
    And we have this going for us.
  12. MDScienceTeacher
    If you go back to 12z yesterday it is a huge shift in the right direction so I am happy with this. What we can’t have is the 2 meeting in the middle.. so we basically have 0 wiggle room and are relying on the euro to continue its shift. Fun times for sure.
  13. MDScienceTeacher
    I would not worry about it too much. We have seen thunder snow with these types of setups in the past.. as long as we get the rates I am pretty sure the cold air aloft will mix down
  14. MDScienceTeacher
    Um guys.. not sure if anyone is getting this faster.. but the GFS looks like it might go off again.. could be wrong. but that 1039 HP isnt really budging.
  15. MDScienceTeacher
    If memory serves, the first PSU storm was Dec 26 2011.
  16. MDScienceTeacher
    lol
  17. MDScienceTeacher
    If the storm track and strength remains the same as what was shown on the 18z I will take my chances with the thermals. There is a lot of potential with this one.. I would not be surprised if we were looking at a warning level event heading in the to weekend.
  18. MDScienceTeacher
    Me too. The last time we saw a progression like this I think it was Commutamageddon (Jan 2011). Ground temp were really warm leading up to the event too, but the developing upper level low pulled in so much cold air that the streets caved in about 10 minutes after start time. There is a lot of cold air aloft to work with.. I am hoping this one trends in the right direction.
  19. MDScienceTeacher
    I think that was storm #1. A lot of people forget that every county in the state of md (except Worcester) was under a blizzard warning for the second storm… I don’t know if that will ever happen again
  20. MDScienceTeacher
    Pulitzer Prize worthy
  21. MDScienceTeacher
    It is alive and well on the euro (albeit too warm)
  22. MDScienceTeacher
    It is pretty interesting to look at the progression of the Individual members on the GEFS.. look at the confidence on the 50-50 at 318 hours..
  23. MDScienceTeacher
    In am not criticizing. It was worth a posting and I am excited about the potential. I am just pointing out that we are in our climatological high point of our snowstorm chances and the only thing we get on the operational models is a 480 hour mega hecs
  24. MDScienceTeacher
    My nephew just called me and said.. you gotta see the extended euro. I said it’s a fake storm.. then he said.. “if stormchaserchuck is excited then I am excited”
  25. MDScienceTeacher
    I can’t believe we are looking at 480 hr snow maps. This has to be a new low.
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