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MDScienceTeacher

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  1. MDScienceTeacher
    Right. And on the gefs as a result the low pressure tracks over Georgia and out over benchmark. Based on the overall run to run consistency of the blocking to our north and northeast I don’t expect much to change over the next several days. It’s gonna come down to how the minute details play out like how strong the hp is to our north and the timing of when and where the low bombs out to our south.
  2. MDScienceTeacher
    Per the op, sub 990 low going over Central VA under an air mass that has been historically warm means temp issues. Not saying it couldnt happen, we have the 50-50 low so that should help to fight the warm air, I am just saying dont invest too much in to this storm until we get closer. One silver lining is that the GEFS shows a much different track, with the low pressure bombing out after it exits the coast:
  3. MDScienceTeacher
    Here are the individual Ensemble Members for the 7th. This is noticeably north of the previous three runs. Good Cluster of lows. Not sure if it will be cold enough.
  4. MDScienceTeacher
    Yes. Volcanic activity (large and small scale) can lead to significant exothermic processes. Definitely enough to have an impact on world wide climate. I dont think people realize just how much energy it takes to skew the earths natural Glacial-Interglacial Cycles, things like volcanic activity, sun spots and astroid strikes are all capable of changing the earths weather patterns. But honestly, we are probably just in a slump and we will wind up getting a 50 inch season sometime very soon.
  5. MDScienceTeacher
    Right.. I dont know if anyone remembers this but the weather channel used to have a segment called "A look ahead" where they would show the jet stream pattern up to 7-10 days in the future. It was a great segment and they used it to warn people ahead of time for snow storm potential. That was probably my earliest memories of following weather models.
  6. MDScienceTeacher
    That storm would have been rain during peak climb.. even in to Vermont and New Hampshire. There wasn’t an antecedent cold air mass anywhere on the eastern seaboard. With the same set up you would get the same outcome. Maybe elevation would do a little better but I don’t think people realize how much warm air was pulled in from the that storm.
  7. MDScienceTeacher
    Also I don’t understand why someone has any more confidence in a 264 hour h5 map then they do a surface map at the same tome period. I get it, models are more skilled with longer waves but fantasy is fantasy and anything over 192 hours is fantasyland
  8. MDScienceTeacher
    When you say "We don't have profiles like New York" does this mean that New York Meso station obs have vertical sampling? And how do they achieve that? Balloons? Just curious.
  9. MDScienceTeacher
    surface only?
  10. MDScienceTeacher
    Is this what you are talking about?
  11. MDScienceTeacher
    High tide is Midnight Sunday night in to Monday. This coincides with the highest winds. Could be a moderate storm surge event for the lower western shore.
  12. MDScienceTeacher
    Are you actually tracking this? I mean its neat to look at and it is cool to get a real deal southern stream system to move through.. but this has been a rain storm ever since it showed up on the models like 7 days ago.
  13. MDScienceTeacher
    Threading the needle implies that there is some level of cold air in place. This is just not that case with the current pattern.
  14. MDScienceTeacher
    LOL.. 2 meter temp change run to run. They know who their users are.
  15. MDScienceTeacher
    What did January 2011 look like a a few days before? Didnt that one sneak up on us too?
  16. MDScienceTeacher
    @Ji is this one exciting enough for you?
  17. MDScienceTeacher
    The 384 hour GFS is never correct. It can get lucky but never correct. I would recommend picking a time where you can legitimately start taking model out put seriously (like <168 hours ) and dont look at anything after that .
  18. MDScienceTeacher
    Yikes. I know you didn’t see hardly any measurable snow last year and this was far and away the lowest snowfall totals in since records were kept in northern md. The last 20 months have been tough. I think we will be fine though. I would be shocked if our area doesn’t bounce back to the historical average with a season or two producing above average snowfall.
  19. MDScienceTeacher
    let’s do this! Btw Isn’t this a legitimate look? Red over Greenland and blue in the Atlantic?
  20. MDScienceTeacher
    I just spent 45 minutes comparing the last 4 runs of the 264 hour + GFS. it’s gonna be a long winter.
  21. MDScienceTeacher
    The next storm turns nw directly in to Delmarva
  22. MDScienceTeacher
    Tropical is a high bar.. at least it used to be before NHC started naming ever cluster of thunderstorms producing a gust over 38 mph.. that being said the Mediterranean is not capable of producing tropical storms. This is why these storms are not tracked as such.. The reality of the situation is that the Infrastructure didnt hold in Libya... in order to understand why we would need to go in to the geopolitical realm and thats a no no here.
  23. MDScienceTeacher
    Sometimes you need to live a little and let it rip! In 2013 I went to see Fun. at Merriweather. There was stalled out severe storm that dumped for an hour straight. Lightening everywhere. They kept playing. I was in the field the whole time. That was the most memorable concert experience of my life...
  24. MDScienceTeacher
    Not trying to downplay what is for sure to be a major disaster with catastrophic flooding in the Southwest.. but Watching WX Twitter go nuts over Hurricane Hillary is amusing.... post after post describing this is some sort of once in a life time event.. you only have to look back to last year to Hurricane Kay with a 100 mph wind gust in San Diego County.
  25. MDScienceTeacher
    What does 1.10 ± 0.16 C mean? Is this the Average Global Temp anomaly for the month of June?
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