Stormchaserchuck1

The subsurface doesn't have much, if any subsurface negative anomalies now (<0). It was proved earlier in this thread that ENSO events graduate over a longer period of time than 1 year, vs the belief that they change like a magnet one year to the next. I've said before that some of the big events of the past had opposite subsurface conditions, creating a different pattern like Pacific warmth across the country. That there are little to no negative subsurface anomalies now tells me: 1) There is more general tendency for +PNA vs -PNA going forward. 2) We are less likely to have a La Nina next year, and it could continue going neutral to ENSO positive. There is still time for negative anomalies to develop, but some of the El Nino years that flipped the following year already had negative subsurface at this time.

In the Winter, that would probably be snow if it were the same pattern.

Now the +PNA is more impressive.. models were backing off for a while. It would be nice to see a pattern last for more than a short time though..

Looks like that is close to Jebman! I would chase it if I still lived out West, in northern CA. Drive up north of Ashland, on the beautiful coast.

You captured the core +PNA there. Compared to what models were showing, it's much later developing, and not as strong. They originally had Oct 8-9 as the start of it, now it's a sheered out at that time. It's in prime position for 3-4 days then it breaks down. I have to think the PDO making a run a -3 right now, which is near record, has somewhat of a reason why it trended less impressive.

Nice little -13.58 and descending QBO to go along with our Winter El Nino. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u30.index You can see if this is impactful ahead of time, as Stratosphere warmings lead -AO's by 15-45 days (depending when in the Winter it occurs). (time sensitive) ^last Winter we had a cooler Stratosphere PV and it was +QBO/La Nina.

This El Nino continues acting like a Weak event (global pattern). The MEI is hitting it right now, and is probably the best measurement to use to assess real conditions.

Real +PNA doesn't get going until Oct 16th now, and then it appears short-lived.

I also have to say that since models settled, the coming +PNA looks pathetic. It is sheared and veered into GOA low/+EPO, then it actually sets up for 3-4 days then collapses. I bet the -PDO played some role in what models showed for this time to what actually happened.

Right, I've actually found a slight opposite correlation (75 years of data).

You can backtest it. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table. I was doing Oct >1 =DJFM

Until we have a few dry months then they take all that green precip off.. lol

Oct NAO has negative correlation to DJFM. It's the only month of the year/12 where that is the case. PNA has +correlation.

Actually, the NAO in October is inversely correlated to the Winter. It's the only month of the year where there is a negative correlation. The coming pattern has 4 cold waves around a Greenland High, so as per data that's not really a great signal.

I've had a lot of less than 5.5" storms since then, but pretty unbelievable that that record has held through 5 years. Power of La Nina/peak -PDO. Average here is 32"/yr.

Pretty amazing to see the -PDO change the modeled look of +PNA for the next few weeks. It looks like around Oct 16th, it's finally able to re-center south of the Aleutian islands, as there is enough wear and tear at that point, and let's see if that holds.

They basically just initialize MR/LR models out... there is a good cold pattern setup coming and they apply that to the 4-6 week range.

Nov 15th, 2018 was my last big snowstorm with 5.5". no storm has topped that since. 18-19 was a Weak Nino.

Really nice signal for a +PNA Oct 14-19, it should correlate with a trough over the EC. The Oct 9 signal for the start of +PNA has been pushed back due to the low becoming more +EPO-like, I think because of the -PDO.

There is no cold water in the ENSO subsurface below Nino 4 and Nino 3.4. I've done research that shows the subsurface at -200m correlates to the N. Pacific pattern. Winter's that were Strong El Nino's that had warm patterns, had subsurface cold water in Nino 4 and Nino 3.4. You can do it from another angle, El Nino's that became La Nina's the following year, had worse Winter pattern the year of the El Nino vs El Nino's that did not become La Nina's the following year. Because there is no cold water in the subsurface of the western ENSO regions, we are less likely to have a La Nina next year. This is applicable to the Winter.

September 12th is middle of the season. It's hard to imagine we only get 2 more storms from here, unless we go in a below average pattern.

Models are really strong on +PNA starting around Oct 9th, which is generally a cooler than average pattern here. Right now GEFS has it lasting through at least Oct 15.

It looks like we're going to hit that October El Nino correlation with +PNA. I'm telling you guys, it's a pretty good correlation when ENSO subsurface is turning warm/cool, we have an associated +PNA/-PNA.

Orioles are actually pretty lucky to have #1 in the AL.. there are 3 teams with 100+ loses, 1 about to do 110+ loses.

ENSO subsurface usually correlates with the pattern. Last Winter it didn't.. still in the Spring, it looked like we were heading toward a +PNA 4-year evening-out. I just think it's veered more -PNA recently. Natural gas last Winter fell from 10.0 to 2.8 (market was surprised by the Nina conditions).