Stormchaserchuck1

Good post. Very interesting. It looks like a phase started in 2013 with the EA. I have said many times that I started noticing an Atlantic-Pacific correlation in 2013, where cold season -NAO's were coinciding with more -PNA/+EPO and +NAO's were coinciding with more +PNA/-EPO. I theorized that it has something to do with the Summer Arctic ice melt, and us not breaking through 2007-2012 levels relative to the global warming. It's like the NAO is "capped" and the potential energy is spilling into other parts of the globe (just my theory). Also 1998 was a big jump up in the EA and that is exactly when the -PDO phase started. The most linear chart I have ever seen, with less flux, is Germany winter snowfall from 50-60 years ago to present. The line almost fits a perfect -30 degree angle. I wonder if the EA index will ever have a negative phase, it appears to be at highest levels all time in 23-24. Upper latitudes should match mid-latitude warming, but that hasn't happened so much lately. AO and NAO and EPO blocks were still higher in the 50s, 60s, 80s, etc. While we keep seeing record breaking ridging 30-50N. I think the NAO not going to record high levels in its blocks is allowing the SE ridge to occur underneath of it, and ridging in Europe, because the base pattern should favor more extreme upper latitude blocks and it's not occurring, if that makes any sense.

July has been a big trend month around the 91-20 average. The West coast has been extreme. Here is July 81-90 vs 91-20, on the front half of the trend Now here's 2021-on vs the 91-20 average That's a +5-6F difference in the West coast ridge in July, the most unanomalous month of the year. 0z EPS through the first half of July has the same pattern occurring. Following Winters around the same base period (91-20) [minus 81-90, plus 21-25] look like this, which is relevant because the same global trend in the July pattern is likely to occur this year

Would you take them 1/6.5? I agree that potential injuries are the greatest variable to them not performing on top of the league.

I would think so.. maybe someone can has a Twitter thread or something. 42c is 107F.

Looks like it maxes out over France.. I bet bluewaves 500mb anomaly record maps show historic ridging there.

Ravens tied with the Eagles and Bills for #1 super bowl odds currently! Bills don't have WR's, so I don't know why they are so high.. probably a weak division. Eagles have so much talent on that team, I would place them at number 1.. but the Ravens really improved their defense this offseason, and extended Derrick Henry and Bateman, which means they are probably doing good.

A bit of a reverse-Atlantic tripole SST pattern, which at this time of the year has a pretty strong correlation with later in the season. I'm actually surprised that surface SSTs have such a strong correlation with hurricanes compared to other factors, but the most active years minus least active years show this clearly.

Strong +NAO driven heat wave for Europe. 595dm making it to Paris, France

Invest is up to 40%.. the wave is currently over the Yucatan, but should be going into the Bay of Campeche soon.

Maybe something in between the two is better. Of course we only need a 2 week pattern to possibly get average snowfall for the year, with the Atlantic Ocean right there. I do think there is a weak: Summer +NAO/following Winter -EPO correlation in play.. but the EPO usually only lasts in 7-12 day cycles, so maybe a warmer general Winter, with some smaller timeframes of opportunity?

PDO actually has a higher and warmer lead time correlation than ENSO for the Winter in much of the eastern US.. starting in about July. SE ridge more amped in PDO composite July-Oct lead Aug-Nov lead Since 2012, the PDO correlation signal has actually strengthened a little beyond this composite. Is it a little surprising that its pattern correlation strength actually matches ENSO? What we have going on with the PDO now is similar to if it was a -2 La Nina.

decent -PDO in the Fall + global warming probably gives us a 85% chance of an above normal temperature Winter. of course last year broke that

This air temp correlation is actually high for something that is not over-lapping. Negative PDO is opposite of this map (but both phases are considered in the composite)

More on how the Winter PNA correlates with the PDO the further into the year you go

More on how the Winter PNA correlates with the PDO the further into the year you go This air temp correlation is actually high for something that is not overlapping.

Yeah.. I was under my 5th severe warning of the year.. nothing close to severe so far. 2x it barely even rained. I think Baltimore does a little better with storms than I do, a few degrees in temp apparently makes a difference. This year it's ended up being more rain up here than lightning..

I would say that all the analogs from 16-17 on have 2x the weight of one's before it. Recent, non-strong ENSO probably 3x (18-19, 19-20, 22-23, 24-25)

More data is always better.

Science and education are two things you need an organized body for... you can cut the rest. They seem to be doing the opposite.

I think Gawx has done research correlating the Solar cycle with ENSO states. I think he found out that there might be a few year lag for highest correlation.. he posted it in ENSO threads in previous years (or maybe I am thinking of the NAO). Thanks for the solar data by the way, that is actually really hard to find!

2003-2022 was definitely a low sunspot time, lowest 20-year period since before the 1900s I think. It may have something to do with the higher than average La Nina frequency during that time. This cycle was a big shift up. I'm actually surprised that the numbers aren't higher because of how many times the Aurora moved towards the tropics.. I don't think that has ever happened before.

-PDO is intensifying and could come in around -3 for July if there are no major changes. We average about 3 more named storms/yr in the Atlantic in -PDO vs +PDO. It also favors a pattern in the last Summer/Fall that supports more Gulf of Mexico landfalls.

Will be interesting to see if we see a change in the Pacific pattern over the next 1-2 years. Solar cycle +12 months Solar cycle +24 months I do think there is higher likelihood for El Nino in 26-27 and/or 27-28

Good thing it's not Winter.. this is quite a streak of bad indices: June will be the 5th month in a row with +NAO 4th straight month of +AO 4th straight month of -PNA The roll forward-combined of these three over a 4-month period looks like this for the following Winter (DJFM) (colored is 53-55% probability): And now June will be the 9th straight month of +SOI.. this tells me that the atmosphere is not in a state of major change. Recent analogs could be better ones going forward.