Stormchaserchuck1

The surface is very warm in that pattern.. warmer than 500mb implies. Here's the March correlation (opposite)

GFS ensembles trended warmer today.. On March 3-4 on the 12z GEFS, the 570dm line goes north of Toronto! The big difference is the NAO-domain.. yesterday they were showing signs of blocking in the long range.. today, there is +NAO in the medium range, and neutral in the long range.. Agrees with my Natural Gas analogs, which I posted about yesterday.

The PDO actually has a high correlation with the EPO-WPO (even with lead time) Here's a post

I think you underestimate the EPO/WPO.. when they are +, they are some of our worst Winters. Yeah, -PNA's can be wet.. but precip plus temps in EPO patterns is the highest of all patterns (+snow), by a pretty good margin! I said before 1 reason they didn't show up in your research, is because the average cycle of a flux there is 7-12 days at a time, The PNA and NAO regions last much longer (can go 30-40+ days, which makes them more visible).

The differences between weak and stronger ENSO events, are because there's more happening all the time than just ENSO. A small sample size gives skewed results because of coincidence, or it lining up with other factors. Weak Nina's were always cold in the composite, until a few years ago, when they started to go warm. If it's a modoki Nino, the stronger the better... you will say, well, 91-92, but that's a total of 0/1 all time.. I think we want forcing out of the western-ENSO regions to amplify above it a +PNA and maybe -EPO.

I don't think it was a true disaster because we had 4 Stratosphere warmings (if you include the one projected to come in March). The QBO does not effect the surface directly, all of its linear correlations are weak. It's an upper atmosphere oscillation. I did pick the -QBO/Nino, and record global precipitation in the Fall to have high totals in the snowfall forecast. I did not really think we would be that cold, but I thought our opportune times (When -NAO's came in El Nino) could give us big storms (in contests you do not want to not be near the majority). I underestimated the effect of the PDO, and that the global pattern is very stagnant right now (High pressure systems).

Because models had been showing that for a while, I think it was already factored into the price. The Natural Gas market was jumping way before these models came within range. I think there was always potential for a near average mid-late March, and in my opinion that's what the move today was about.. Again though, long range weather forecasting methods should be able to beat that, ideally, or normally... that's the challenge given lol

I would say the can was kicked today.. Natural Gas fell 8%, I've found a high correlation with March above average temperatures in the NE. There does seem to be a lot pointing to a -NAO though, I think if the -PNA sustains past March 10th, a -NAO will develop with it. 12z GEFS has a nice west-based -NAO starting around the 8th, but let's see if that holds..

12z GEFS has the Aleutian High pressure going strong at 384hr, Alaska trough too.. no signs of a pattern change in the Pacific.

After the next few weeks, the Pacific is going to look nothing like that. You underestimated the PDO. You'll score really high in the Atlantic.

I don't mind having troughs digging into the SW, US, to be honest. That sets us up for future Winters. I made a prediction a long time ago The warmth has actually gone extreme in the last 2 Winters, so I think we have knocked a good amount of this "5 year variable" out, although I still wouldn't be surprised if the average of the next 3 Winters is above average in the same area. I found on micro and macro-scales, pressure in the SW leads us.

I was just noticing how common this PNA pattern is Feb 22-Mar 5, since 2013. I came up with 7 analogs (64% of dataset). and the roll forward into March carries a >+200dm -PNA! https://ibb.co/JkDgZ6J But the analogs also develop a west-based -NAO (which agrees with Stratosphere warming +time). Actually gives the NE almost a below normal March. https://ibb.co/yyJxPgw

Believe it or not, the lowest year on record (since 1948) was 1995-6

[url=https://ibb.co/71S37rT][img]https://i.ibb.co/rwQBn5L/1.gif[/img][/url] [url=https://imgbb.com/]fast picture upload[/url] [img]https://i.ibb.co/rwQBn5L/1.gif[/img] [url=https://ibb.co/71S37rT][img]https://i.ibb.co/71S37rT/1.gif[/img][/url] no?

I recently had 3.4MB cleared free space and it was such a help! People could easily see what I was talking about in discussions, instead of having to click on the links (I estimate by the "likes" when I post a picture of snow or something that about 40% of people reading the post click on the link to go to the image). Does anyone know of a good site to embed images from? Imagebb doesn't work for some reason.

Here is what the El Nino was doing before the Winter..

TNA data: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/tna.data Tropical Northern Atlantic Index Anomaly of the average of the monthly SST from 5.5N to 23.5N and 15W to 57.5W. 2023 0.47 0.22 0.64 0.78 1.04 1.41 1.41 1.36 1.43 1.32 1.09 1.17 We are, by a pretty good margin, the highest on record for this index [2023]. 2nd place was year 2010, and here is that season: 2010, 19NS, 12Hurr, 5 MH +1 year, 2011: 19NS, 7Hurr, 4 MH Using that Jun-Dec 2023 was so extreme, the most extreme 7-month period on record going back to 1948, I rolled that forward the coming Atlantic Hurricane season: The warmth usually spreads out. Sea level pressure: 500mb High pressure north of the original TNA area:

La Nina in general supports patterns that are associated with long track storms across the Atlantic basin vs easily recurving out to sea. If you look at Atlantic hurricane tracks by year, there is a pretty big difference historically between La Nina and El Nino years. A lot of El Nino storms recurve, and some La Nina storms recurve, some don't. It's not a perfect correlation though. I don't really know if warmer SSTs in the SE N. Atlantic would be a big enough factor to favor more recurves, it's probably a small difference.

I think we had satellite technology going way back into the 1970s and 80s. There is maybe 0.4-0.8 storms per year that are named now, that weren't named several decades ago. I know as a kid in the 1990s, I was always watching every little swirl, and they almost always were named. The uptick in 1995 was more a matter of Atlantic SSTs getting warmer, vs new guidelines.

The MJO went through phases 3-4-5 the only time it was cold this Winter, Jan 11-21. The rest of the Winter was mostly warm for the CONUS

They get I think 1/3 to 1/2 of the storms we do.

lol I love all weather.. a reason I wouldn't move up north is they don't get much of a severe wx season. The further west you go, toward maybe Buffalo though.. but not SNE, it's pretty much snow and that's it. depressing Springs.

I still think that's just La Nina cold.. not enough examples to make conclusions about the AO. After 20-25 examples, I think that would look more neutralized.

Really? It must have updated.. weird because they go back to 1948. Must be cold 80% of the time.

Here's the Nino 3.4 +12 months Default is + so warmer general Hemisphere 500mb.. somewhat the same Pacific pattern. +AO is probably the biggest variable and that carries a max correlation of 0.18, which could be near random with 75 years dataset.