Stormchaserchuck1

The PDO has a high EPO/WPO correlation, and if we see an Aleutian island High all Summer, it will be very difficult to get a -EPO/-WPO in the Winter. I do agree that we are kind of due for it, but the stronger trend is the strengthening Aleutian island ridge (-PNA) over the last few years. It may be that times we had +pna last Winter, we will be -pna next Winter, but I'm not sure on when a -EPO would set up.. they usually run only in 8-14 day cycles, vs PNA/NAO, which run 10-45 days.

I am curious to see if there is a -PNA correlation. There might be, as when the Earths magnetic defenses weakened around 2013, then again in 2019, there was more -PNA.

Models have a strong -PNA for the next 15 days, and it's kicking into gear just as the La Nina surfaces (on schedule if not slightly ahead). This is something to watch as we progress through the Summer as last year we did not see +pna with El Nino and that carried into Winter.

Their measurement does intersect the two (PNA and EPO) Here is PNA H5 https://ibb.co/L1HKSSJ US Air Temps https://ibb.co/KFnBqTh EPO H5 https://ibb.co/q1hjXGx US Air Temps https://ibb.co/FqRBgF5 As you can see, the EPO does have a pretty strong opposite-correlation in the N. Pacific (what I am calling the PNA region). That is why the CPC PNA has only a weak correlation with air temps over the NE, but EPO has a strong correlation. It's not that Alaska is super important (although it is), but the PNA south of where they measure is the sweet spot for correlated temperature impact.

I saw a firefly two nights in a row! This is early?

Do you know how much snow Boston has received vs average 2017-18 to 2023-24? If it's less than 50% that's a huge bad omen for areas south on the east coast going forward through the next few years and maybe decades.

Yeah, nice -PNA setting in on models which should warm us up by the last few days of May. There is a lot of general warmth in the N. Hemisphere on these models, which I have seen happen a few times after we have a cold pattern in the east. https://ibb.co/z2bzyDx Also, high global precipitable water (Sept 2023 - March 2024) supports a warmer globe for up to +12 months after, which could mean we are headed for a warmer Summer.

Anyone care that we were told there will never be northern lights south of Canada, and this one made it to Australia lol I don't care what they call the strength of the storm,, we didn't see this aura in 2003. Either the Earth's magnetic defenses are weaker or the Sun is stronger. I think it's the first. Fits what I've been saying for the last few years on here about the Sun feeling hotter, and why they chemtrail. Not sure if it has anything to do with greenhouse gases. When it felt like the temperature dropped 10 degrees in the sun during the eclipse that was like.. whoa

The La Nina mechanics don't really matter so much what we came out of, or how long it's been in a state. The one factor that may be, is that the globe is typically warmed up by El Nino's and cooled by La Nina's. That could take a year or couple of years after the fact to neutralize. I found that a year after Global precipitable water was high (Sept 2023 - March 2024 was #1 on record by 120%) the globe maintains a warm temperature effect..

Since the AMO turned + in the Atlantic mid-latitudes, the PDO has had a tendency toward negative. In the last few years, we hit -3 on the monthly, which was the strongest -PDO since 1954. With AMO still roaring positive and now a La Nina developing, it's really difficult for the PDO to go negative for the Winter.. we needed the Strong Nino to do that job, and we had one the highest relative -PDO/ENSO Winter's on record. It may take quite a few years to go back to true positive, although a 1-2 year blip like 2013-15 isn't impossible.

18z GEFS has a pretty strong -PNA pattern starting around May 17th. Hard to say that it will sustain, but sometimes when it starts and we are cooler on the EC, the later part of the -PNA pattern is above average to way above average.. something to look for if it sustains into June. I've done some research linking ENSO subsurface with the N. Pacific pattern at 0-time, but in the age of weather derivatives it's harder to say if that is the reason for the correlation (my opinion).

Nice job Ray.. I don't agree that the PNA was +0.55 for the Winter.. there was an Aleutian High most of the time, and +EPO/+WPO. I think their measurement runs into the EPO domain, counting Alaska and the Gulf of Alaska.. I see it as a -PNA Winter, especially since the North America part included a SE ridge and NW trough. The one time the EC got cold in January was because of -NAO.

I'm surprised you aren't mentioning La Nina. It's developing pretty quickly, with < -4c anomalies in the subsurface, and a -2c pool surfacing in Nino 3.

Here is the historical Solar Flux correlation with Dec-Feb US temperature (we are going to be at the + side of this next Winter). https://ibb.co/z7d6kbD

Kind of odd that we are getting this cold over the next few days with +EPO (correlation is opposite). https://ibb.co/TtxMtMj Fits my theory that we are getting more cold with +NAO's these days than -NAO's. For the upper latitude pattern, cold air seems to be going more N->S, than W->E. This has been the case since 2013, and more so since 2019.

Again, the strong -PNA conditions being shown by LR models support a warmer end to May https://ibb.co/F7ZCqDD (map default is positive, so -PNA is opposite)

We also now have a pretty strong cold pool of water developing in Nino 3. These deep-pocket starts usually precede Moderate+ events. https://ibb.co/qspXSjq

Not to hype this season further because there are a lot of factors that involve tropical cyclones: African dust, etc, and for the longest time of several decades we did average in the Atlantic 9NS/year. But last year we did see 20 named storms in Strong El Nino. That blew out previous El Nino stats, for all El Nino's (Weak-Mod-Strong): TS Hurr MH 1951 12 8 3 1953 14 7 3 1957 8 3 2 1963 10 7 3 1965 10 4 1 1968 9 5 0 1969 18 12 3 1972 7 3 0 1976 10 6 2 1977 6 5 1 1979 9 6 2 1982 6 2 1 1986 6 4 0 1987 7 3 1 1991 8 4 2 1994 7 3 0 1997 8 3 1 2002 12 4 2 2004 15 9 6 2006 10 5 2 2009 9 3 2 2014 8 6 2 2015 11 4 2 2018 15 8 2 2023 20 7 3 1953, 1969, 2004, and 2018 were all Weak El Nino's. So the record for Moderate+ El Nino's before last year was 12 named storms (1948-2022). The warmer water temperatures, which were a leap above previous years, did play a role last year.

Here's another view of that deep cold pocket developing in Nino 3. https://ibb.co/qspXSjq

Since I moved back east from the west coast in 2017, we have yet to have 1 normal snowfall Winter.

I've been watching the Great Falls, Montana radar, and they are getting hit hard! Says it's 37 degrees, but that's really heavy snow if it's cold enough.

Pocket of -2c in Nino 3. https://ibb.co/HCT4knc

We have been lucky with cooler Summers over the last few years/decades. You have to think that drier/hotter conditions will eventually prevail.

Anyone know how to make images appear on this board?

23/13/6