Stormchaserchuck1

CPC is predicting a widespread drought starting late Summer everywhere but tropical Florida After I think the warmest Dec-Jun on record for the CONUS, look at this current July forecast: https://ibb.co/Hxqg6yx https://ibb.co/YZX9q97 https://ibb.co/qWS9LZV

1980 had the earliest Cat 5 for a while when Allen reached it on August 5. That season had 9 Hurricanes, 2 MH. 2005 then did it in July, when Emily did it on July 16. That season had 28 NS, 15, Hurr, 8 MH. Camille did it in mid-August 1969. That season, in the middle of -AMO had 18 named storms, 12 Hurricanes, 3 MH. Dean: August 18, 2007. 15 named storms, 6 Hurricanes, 2 MH. Not really any other examples before late August. Andrew was next, Aug 23-24, 1992. That was an El Nino year.

I think we'll have quieter periods when the MJO becomes unfavorable. But you do see the linear correlation here between SSTs and Storms. With -3c holding in the ENSO subsurface, I think we will get 15-16 named storms at the minimum..

The early season Cat 3+ storms were: Emily 2005 (7-17) 160mph Dennis 2005 (7-10) 145mph Audrey 1957 (6-27) 145mph Unnamed 1926 (7-26) 140mph Alma 1966 (6-8) 125mph Bertha 2008 (7-8) 120mph Unnamed 1916 (7-5) 120mph Unnamed 1916 (7-14) 115mph Unnamed 1945 (6-23) 115mph Able 1951 (5-21) 115mph Anna 1961 (7-21) 115mph Bertha 1996 (7-6) 115mph Average for these seasons 15.3 NS/yr (long term average is 9-10) 8.8 Hurr/yr (long term average is 5) 4.7 MH/yr (long term average is 2-3) (if there were 2 storms in the same year, I used that year twice.)

Apr-May-Jun SOI average comes in at -2 The highest monthly reading we've actually had since March 2023 is +3.96.

Since 1995, we have seen a Cat 1+ develop before July 15, 11 times. I know it's not saying much, but that's only 42% of the time. The average for those seasons is, 16.5 NS, 8.7 Hurr, 3.8 MH.

Subsurface and the surface are far apart.. but the global pattern is more like the subsurface, saying we are in a Weak Nina, than the surface saying +Neutral. I've researched this back long ways, and found the subsurface has greater correlations to the global pattern than surface SSTs, so if there are differences between the two, I lean toward subsurface being the greater variable. It's holding -3c anomalies in the central region at -200m, and that has organized a bit in the last day or so... so let's see if these -3 to -4c readings in the central subsurface continue to hold like they have been since February.. A Strong La Nina peak does not look very possible. Almost all of those years had more La Nina stuff happening right now.

I've seen your research before about how rare -NAO's have been lately. I've done my own research that shows that 16/16 of the Winter months (DJFM) since 2013, with a NAO >1.11 have all been positive! Also I found that the Winter NAO has been positive something like 37 of the last 43 Winter months. The big differences started in the early 2010s (2013-2024). There was something I was reading that showed Atlantic sea levels rising/falling 2011-2022 to fit a perfect +NAO progression. But the CPC's measurement is weird. We have had some strong Greenland blocks lately, and not very negative NAO readings. I think they heavily weight the mid-latitude region at about 40-45N that runs from the east coast to the central-north Atlantic. That region has been warmer, making that part of their NAO measurement positive, despite high pressures in the Upper latitudes at the same times. This has especially occurred since the Winter of 2018-19. You might just want to run H5 anomaly maps and make your own NAO index.

I don't think we really have enough data.. and there are all kinds of different things that happen with the sun that effect us in different ways. I did correlate Jupiter's movement in the sky with the NAO before, it was pretty strong at its peak, like +30%. I think the actual correlation with Solar Max to +NAO is probably lower than the +0.2 to +0.3 those charts show. I would think it may even fuel a High pressure over Greenland, and a more volatile pattern.

Yeah, since 2018-19, -NAO's have been more warm than cold. I've noticed a -NAO/-PNA or +EPO and +NAO/+PNA or -EPO correlation of about 0.40 during that time. Going back to since 2013, it's been about 0.25-0.30.

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA +1.4, +1.4, +1.2, +3.5, +1.4, +1.1, +3.4, +0.6, -0.5

Month-by-month of La Nina/+QBO vs El Nino/-QBO looks like this: Nov Super warm Nov may even out the Dec composite, since it only goes back to 1979 Jan Feb Mar I always think La Nina is a colder weather pattern, since it has to do with colder waters.. if you ran it out like 200-300 years.. so maybe we'll have some -EPO periods this Winter, they usually last 7-12 days at a time.. but Feb and March for the last 7 years have been especially RNA. I don't see that trend not continuing:

May-Sept.. we are 40% of the way through Here is Sept SST correlation with Jan-Feb NAO

May-Sept SST correlation with following Dec-Mar NAO (strong) (shown below is +NAO correlation. -NAO would be opposite). Current SSTs

Since 1979, +QBO/La Nina minus -QBO/El Nino: 10mb 500mb US surface air

Yeah, here is the 76-year correlation between Solar Flux and the Winter NAO.. Nov-Feb being the strongest correlation: Here's the 76-year regression average: SLP Nov-May: all-year

GFS ensemble mean now pinches off a 594dm ridge over the Aleutian islands of Alaska July 5-6.. should be record breaking if it verifies. Looking like a very hot July in the N. Pacific, which is usually has something to do with La Nina impacting.. Subsurface continues to look like a Weak Nina though

38% of the way through it's +0.05.. I do think we could have some -NAO periods this Winter, but that's because it's had such a big correlation to the -PNA in the last 11 years. If the central-Atlantic warmth migrates north to off the coast of New Foundland though, it could run the index more positive since it runs out to Aug-Sept, and +TNA often migrates to +AMO from the Winter to that time... Edit: We are really blasting this thing + right now. https://ibb.co/styNwm6 I was looking at the 5/1-6/25 composite.

Subsurface has a higher correlation to the N. Pacific pattern than ONI, RONI, Nino 1, 2, 3.. but since 1999 the relative value (RONI) has correlated more with the Hadley Cell/Mid-latitude Cell, by even as much as -0.5/6 difference (ex: ONI is -0.6, global pattern acts like it's -1.2).

shipping aerosols? lol

Why do you think Strong El Nino's are followed by 3+ years of La Nina's? Even the strongest relative La Nina (1988-89), was followed by 7/8 years of +ENSO conditions. There seems to be a reversal that is more powerful than the actual event. At least since satellite era ~1940s.

Strongest correlation, believe it or not, to a May - July RNA that should be record breaking, is a -NAO signal for Winter [map is default positive so neg PNA is opposite correlation] I've been saying that -NAO/-PNA or +EPO and +NAO/+PNA or -EPO is correlating: since 2013, and more so since 2019 (correlation is about 0.40, or 70%), so this fits if we are to expect a -PNA this Winter... here's the regression

Still just a monster N. Pacific ridge here.. subtropical jet making it up to Alaska https://ibb.co/q7ggFZy Then hr384 on the ensemble mean has another round of -PNA https://ibb.co/88Cpx49 My guess is that subsurface-ENSO will strengthen cold anomalies during this time in July. They are pretty weak right now, looking like a Weak or low-end Moderate surface La Nina peak.

This 25-year period from 1998 to 2024, and still ongoing.. is an interesting case study for the La Nina-global-pattern that has taken hold. The Hadley Cell reaction, both in the northern and southern hemisphere's is record breaking. Not a coincidence it's north and south of Nino 3.4, which is the strongest ENSO region for effect. I would guess it has something to do with the Sun and astronomy. I was thinking the Solar Minimum that we were going through 2000-2022 had something to do with it, but it seems to be continuing through recent sun spikes and Aura's making it far south. It is also possible that the 1997 El Nino event was so extreme, that an attempt to not have more extreme "global warming" events was made, and that could also explain why every Strong Nino is followed by 3+ years of La Nina's since the satellite era.. I don't know..

The GFS ensemble mean currently has a >+250dm Aleutian island ridge for July 5-6. That is the average of all ensembles, which is a ridiculous size ridge for the middle of Summer. If it verifies, it will be a continuation of the May -PNA state that was record breaking.. All these things roll forward to a warm Fall in the eastern 1/2 of the US, as the Fall is the season where the PDO has the strongest correlation with the N. Hemisphere 500mb pattern, and High pressure in the N. Pacific ocean during the Spring and Summer strengthens the -PDO leading up to that time..