Stormchaserchuck1

Really strong -PNA on todays 12z GEFS. +300dm, 594dm ridge in a few days. This is, not coincidentally, as ENSO subsurface is cooling again. We will have a near record breaking Aleutian ridge for March-Sept 2024, as ENSO subsurface has been near "Moderate Nina" range the whole time. Next 7 months (correlation is opposite):

It got down into the 40s here last night, and it will be close to that again tonight. The air also feels crisp, cold. I've seen a lot of lightning bugs dying. While we are still not technically in -AMO, I do agree with raindancewx that a colder pattern is coming forth, and this can't really be seen yet by global SSTs, but using cold-phase analogs may be a good way to go. I do think that if not by the Winter, then by the Spring there will be a cold pool somewhere. The problem is that the indicators are still pointing toward unfavorable indexes, but we'll see how that goes.. I have linked the +NAO, which has been near record breaking this year with -EPO, so that may be how it shows itself in future months. 18z GEFS has a pretty strong -PNA/-PDO for the next 15 days, but sometimes when things are changing the previous state will flare up. I'm also suspicious of that Aura we saw in May. It seems that every color on the color spectrum was hit.

We've definitely hit a 3 year anomaly here. 2 years ago we had 14NS in La Nina, last year we had 21NS in Strong El Nino. The longer term might have had a larger correlation that it should be.. we never did >12 NS in Moderate+ El Nino since 1948 until last year.

I'm going to get into the 40s tonight (5.5 weeks from the hottest day on average of the year)!

Fwiw, Phoenix has had 100 straight 100 degree days. The only three times it ever did it over 50 days were 1993 (76), 1989 (64), and 1935 (61) [donsutherland in the climate change forum] These are cold December's in the composite Feb 1936 lol #4 and #5 in December Edit: I see it's a progression. Well those are the top years for the record at that point. I'm sure we've had plenty of >20 days in the last few decades.

Since 2013, and more since 2019 (I would say 0.30 correlation since 2013 and 0.40 correlation since 2019), -nao has coincided with -pna/+epo and +nao has coincided with +pna/-nao. I bet you will see this tendency again this coming cold season. I only fear with the NAO, that we have exhausted all of the +NAO already this year, as it made a pretty good leap over the past few years. Sometimes it will bounce back around on the monthly scale. Dec 2021 was a good example of this.. +600dm RNA, broke the record by quite a bit, then January '22 featured the opposite pattern, despite a La Nina. A cold 10mb vortex though could amplify High pressure where the Polar Cell and mid-latitude Cell's meet. similar to how it gets warm right before a cold front passes. Put them together I guess.

It's probably because March's correlation with the PNA is near neutral While January has a pretty high correlation If MR models show a snowstorm in January and the PNA is strongly negative, I am going to be posting about it trending warmer at getting like 12 weenies on here lol

I'm all over it. +QBO/La Nina gives us about a 75% probability of having a cold 10mb for the Winter, which is actually a high percentage. I just think that strong PV downwells to amplify RNA conditions, as it has done that for the last 15 years. Of course there is some chance of a Stratosphere warming, but I am less keen on a -NAO of late, because it is not dominating the pattern like the Pacific is.

Add to it the fact that 5 of the last 6 Winter's have been +WPO And it's been super unfavorable, from 3 different uncorrelated areas.

The Pacific is the most extreme ocean and that spot north of Hawaii, south of the Aleutians is a big region for ridges or troughs.. more global High pressure could possibly been seen there, but I think we are like 80-90% in a pattern. La Nina's have happened 14-8 since 1998 (15-8 if this year is La Nina), and that doesn't count the 0.2-0.3 skew for overall warmer waters.

Per the CPC's NAO measurement, since Winter 11-12, 44/52 (84%) Winter months (DJFM) have been +NAO! That's 44-8. In that time, 19/20 >1.11 NAO months have been positive (95%)! Since 13-14, 16/16 Winter months with NAO >1.11 have all been positive. Dec has been +NAO 11 of the last 13 years (85%) January has been +NAO 12 of the last 13 years (92%) February has been +NAO 12 of the last 13 years (92%) March has been +NAO 9 of the last 13 years (72%) The CPC does weigh heavily on the south part of that index, as I've found out (we've had some Greenland blocks but there remained high pressure near the Azores, they call that +nao). And we've had strong -PDO since 2016. So, the Atlantic and Pacific have both been unfavorable together by actually a pretty good standard deviation. Add to it the fact that climate change has been associated with more precipitation/global precipitable water, and I would say that our problems in the Winter with snow have probably been something like 10-15% global warming. A lot of the warm forecasts in this regard are more based on consistency than the average global temperature.

Half of the PDO measurement measures cold water, over the Gulf of Alaska, and Bering Strait.. it's a 50/50 index. so I don't think you can say CC is part of the PDO. The index from 2020-2024 is actually the lowest 4 year stretch ever recorded. The problem is this pattern No other 7-year consecutive time period even comes close to +120dm anomaly. #2 was -NAO Jan 1964-1969, and that was 1-month covering 6 years. That period registered at +95dm.

The Winter looks probably bad.. but it does feel like something long term is shifting. Natural Gas right now is near record lows, and my Winter NAO formula is coming in very +. The good news is history says the EPO/WPO usually shifts, and we are coming off of 5/6 +WPO Winters and a very +WPO Dec-Aug so we might have some -EPO periods (they usually last 7-12 days).

Yeah, we are probably going to need help from the Pacific this Winter, and that's not looking very likely with the La Nina about to approach Weak range. At least the subsurface is moderating.. What we do have going for us is that 5/6 Winters have been +WPO and history says that's more likely to flip.. nothing scientific about that, it just has a historical tendency to fluctuate back and forth. The monthly QBO number should be out in a couple of days, and that will tell us how positive this phase is going to get. A lot of factors are pointing to a warm Winter.. I would say 4/4 with the wild card being the N. Pacific High possibly extending north. I know the Futures market is betting on a warm Winter, if someone thinks it's going to be cold, this would be a nice time to buy.. The PDO really correlates to our weather in the Fall.. this cool down in the East lately is actually because of shorter wavelengths as the Pacific warm pool is holding a High pressure and we have a GOA low.. if this Pacific pattern happened in the Winter, it would be warm. La Nina/+QBO in the cold season does support a stronger 10mb vortex, which imo translates to +AO and RNA. That's why I was hoping ENSO would stay warm, but it's made a little bit of a move in the last few days.

I also don't know why I have to wear a name tag.. the board was dead, no posts.. so I made like 10 posts in 2 minutes. Got tagged 3 years ago and worn it since lol. It seems petty.. no one even posts in OT.

Wow! Big time lag in global ACE (173 vs 250). That's like 70% while the Atlantic had been running 180%. Thanks If I had known this, I would have gone more conservative on the season lol

Also, the only two times since 2010 the N. Atlantic SST Winter NAO predictor was this positive was 2018 and 2013. We had 15 NS and 14NS, and 2 MH, 0 MH in those years. I said before, if there is a correlation between ACE and -NAO in the Winter, maybe there is a chicken/egg equation there.. I think it's probably because global factors hold a state that is correlation, not because of the actual storms, but because the same things leading to X have the same result..

How had cyclones in other parts of the world been doing vs the Atlantic? I thought I read somewhere it was 125% vs 175%. We had been running above even the SST curve..

I don't think the AMO is going cold because we have 5 NS half way through the season. Atlantic SSTs are still very warm. In the Caribbean and GOM, they have borderlined record warm since the Spring. I plotted the AMO going back to when it's warm phase began in 1995, then smoothed it out. It seems that a rising phase is still underway. Remember, we averaged 9-10 NS/yr for a very long time, 100 years.. through warm and cold phases AMO's. so that we're sitting at 5 NS still here in August has us actually a little bit ahead of the long term average. It just shows how favorable the pattern has been, and I think a large part of that is the 65% La Nina events vs El Nino since the AMO went + in 1995. Look at what we have going on now in the ENSO subsurface.. Neutral

You really think so? Just using global warming or persistence, there is a 3/4 - 4/5 chance that January '25 will be warmer than average.. There exists some skill in ENSO, the PDO, and even S. Hemisphere conditions over their Winter rolled forward.. not super high predictability, but you can definitely manage some skill. I think the signs for the hurricane season drying up were there when the cap was not breaking for anything in the East in the Spring and Early Summer. 9 NS/yr for 100 years is also quite a datapoint, so sometimes the longer term average comes back to prevail.

It's funny that this is happening just as the SOI goes solidly positive for the first time in 18 months.. I'm convinced that there is some kind of "take" on weather, for example: If the stock market has up indicators, everyone buys it up and drops its price lower.

I don't think it's because of the +NAO the season has been slow. The clues came in May-July when the east coast, US was super dry, and the cap was not breaking for anything, despite very hot temperatures. That seemed to be a pattern that carried across the Atlantic. Also, two years ago we had 14 NS during a La Nina, so that was a trend break. There was expected to be a pretty strong La Nina for the hurricane season this year, and what we have is Neutral, so all that's really going for it is the warm SSTs and you know that that is a very general factor. It doesn't look like Weak La Nina conditions will develop for the 2nd half of the season, although the subsurface ENSO is in Weak-Nina range.

It's rare. These correlations aren't perfect, but what we've seen lately is the normal 0.30-0.40 correlation with the PDO, being about 0.60. I think we have a warm Sept-Nov coming for the CONUS, as there is a really strong correlation with the PDO in the Fall season. Going back to 1948, it has a >0.60 correlation in NW Canada (+EPO)! Having a -2 to -3 pdo should set the tone for some above normal ridging going forward.

Highest temperature even recorded in Australia in the Winter today, 106F. This is after the great -4 to -5 AAO. I think the same pattern is present, and for some reason these negative AO and AAO events are accompanied by warmer temperatures in the mid latitudes +days. I say that to have an average to good Winter in the east, we absolutely need the Pacific in tune.

We're getting it up there though.. I think it will probably finish in the top 25th percentile. I do get a little nervous though when it is a H5 pattern carrying the thing.. so you could basically say +NAO leads +NAO, but if there was relative strength in the Atlantic subsurface/SSTs, it would have higher value I think. +NAO Winter looks probable, but I would probably forecast a bit lower than the index comes out (even though the CPC has been really weighing +nao events high since 2013, 16/16 of Winter months >1.11 have all been +NAO!). It's likely the CPC again has a higher nao number than the H5 pattern this Winter.