Stormchaserchuck1
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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1
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Just really pretty muted. If anything the orientation of precip is more La Nina like for +QBO. You are going to get some colors when it's only 64 years, random. -
Be careful connecting QBO to STJ, as the QBO is a Stratosphere wind oscillation. The correlations with the troposphere run pretty low, AO-correlation being the highest.
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Subsurface is looking like we're going to pop a +9c soon on TAO/Triton. It's warming currently as the Kelvin wave moves east. That would put us ahead of 1997.
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02-03 had plenty of examples.
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It was my first snowless Winter as a kid. Thankgoodness I didn't know about ENSO yet or I would have really realized the potential that could have been, especially with -NAO January. I think the AO will be more negative this coming Winter, which is good- widespread cold at times.
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I was just mentioning that your analog composite of <-60dm for DJFM is probably too low. I used 6 straight months of -PNA as an example. That doesn't mean I expect the PNA to be negative, just that there are competing forces right now.
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Yeah last Winter we had something like the 4th longest streak since the 1800s where Baltimore had >6" on the ground (22 days or something). I love that - 8" of snow and 3" of ice on top there for almost a whole month of the Winter! That storm was really anomalous to the overall pattern last Winter. I'm glad it was timed at the beginning of the pattern.
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Well I can at least say with high confidence that it won't be a DJFM <-60dm anomaly in the N. Pacific. In these different times, analogs only go so far (our historical database is somewhat limited to larger cycles). It will certainly be interesting to see what goes on in the N. Pacific this Fall/Winter with the SOI as a top-5 negative event since the 1800s. The SOI being positive relative to ENSO was correlating with -PNA, but now that's not the case this year.
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I had my biggest Winter last year since returning from CA in 2017, 24" here. -AO was the reason for that: but it was a dry pattern. In normal precip we could have done better. Kind of disappointing the last 2 Winters have been cold with below average snowfall.
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If I had to make a Winter prediction it would slightly lean towards above average snowfall. The reason is the AO may be negative a lot of the time, and that combined with El Nino STJ can really produce some big storms. On the other side the Pacific is not looking El Nino like at all, -PNA dominates, so we could be looking at a Winter overall above average temp wise with possibly average to above average snowfall.
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Might be a coincidence because QBO is a Stratosphere index, but +QBO/El Nino has the highest correlated above average Dec I have ever seen. We are going to be strong in both signal this year.
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We have had a long term -PDO/La Nina pattern, call it a decadal pattern 1998-2025. It seems to have strengthened since 2016, and now in 2026 it's diverging from the S. Hemisphere/equator and the Northern Hemisphere. Up until now you could have said it was either, ENSO or PDO. The Southern Hemisphere Hadley Cell expanding during the time makes me think it was more of a decadal ENSO phase. But now with the N. Pacific significantly diverging from the SOI/ENSO SSTs,,, maybe it's something else related to the PDO. Or my personal theory is cold northern Arctic Summers could have a lot do with it. We also had 100-year low Solar 2001-2020. The max during that time was weakest since the early 1800s.
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Everyone was saying 1998-2025 SOI was such that it is probably biased positive now. This is about as respectable as a downward drop as you will see. Here's the last 2 days.. 90-day and 30-day are both below -20 now. 26 Jul 2026 1011.41 1015.60 -31.64 -25.66 -20.20 25 Jul 2026 1011.59 1015.45 -29.61 -25.54 -20.06 This is turning into a top-5 -SOI event since the 1800s, so yeah it's probably not biased positive with AGW.
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Really liking to see this -SLP 60-90N pattern for the whole Summer so far. Since 2012 that has reversed to Winter AO almost everytime. -AO with Nino STJ could be the fuel to give us big snow chances. However, without a monster low in the N. Pacific it may be more about timing and "threading the needle".
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I'm impressed at how much further west the subsurface warm pool extends vs 1997. This could mean two things: 1) There is more fuel for this Nino to go stronger - and perhaps stronger in Nino 3 2) The "Strong La Nina snap-back" for 27-28 may not be as probable as some may think.
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Yeah, you know what's going on. I'd give the % chance of something like that happening like 5-10% right now.
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@40/70 Benchmark I was going to say, be careful predicting a <-60dm N. Pacific trough for the DJFM mean. The Pacific has done nothing like that for a while, July will be the 6th consecutive month with -PNA.
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I can't believe how dry last Winter was in the STJ areas! I've been thinking maybe RONI should be -1.0 to -1.5 vs ONI.
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I was going to say AMO is the only thing you didn't cover besides Asia Mountain Torque lol You could focus on S. Hemisphere Winter pattern in relation to current El Nino too
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-H5 over Greenland may be a little too cold for the Winter I think. I have found that since 2012/13, the Summer SLP state 60-90N has reversed for the Winter AO almost every time! This worked out great last Winter. We have seen +AO pretty much every day since May and models have it for the next 15 days. I think this favors -AO tendency in the Winter.
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You are talking about SSW's, but if you include everything, total cold season 10mb (SSWs are probably like 10% of total composite) El Nino/-QBO trumps
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Very nice write up Ray! Good work. You should put that link in your signature. I was hoping for Winter forecast maps at the end of your post I see why you always refer to your outlooks, because you put so much thought into them! The only thing I would like to say is that in the mean -QBO/El Nino has the most 10mb warming, not La Nina/-QBO.
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0.54. 50% chance of DJFM NAO being within +0.54. I devised that in 2005, and since then have been 11-10 vs the std, so about where was originally estimated. 16-5 at getting the sign, + or - correct. Problem this year is I'm not going to be able to make exact numbers without Daily Climate composites. Maybe someone has a site of SSTAs for the whole period May-Sept?
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If I get into the 50s tonight, that will be something like 4/6 days in the 50s at the hottest time of year! Also Billings, MT just hit 111 a few weeks ago, breaking their all time high of 108.
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August historically has a pretty good correlation with ENSO's peak later in the year. It's expected to become the strongest on record by Dec and here's the preceding Augusts: There is some -NAO in the mix but right now it's looking like this usually highly correlated month will not be anything special below-average-wise. PNA has been negative 6 straight months including July, and that is the source of the problem.
