Jump to content

Stormchaserchuck1

NO ACCESS TO PR/OT
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    5,610

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    It's still a macro-pattern, that means more activity with fewer systems. Seem pretty fitting going into an El Nino winter. Watch the central-ENSO subsurface, this has been cooling, and if that region continues not to warm the El Nino will have less effect in the Winter, despite what happens at the surface.
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah, the air is too saturated. Im watching cumulus building to the north but it's nothing like the last few days (Harford Co) edit: nevermind, the storm is really going. Probably close to 1" of rain.
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    low to mid 90s today across the area with -NAO. The pattern is N-S is elongating a trough or ridge, through Hadley Cells (15N-80N). I think in the Winter a -NAO will be hard to lock cold, but a stronger El Nino could overpower. This -NAO = warmth thing is really unbelievable because it is happening so often.
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    90F here, Sunny. You can tell the air is saturated though.
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    ^That's a good post. I'm worried about the cold pool developing in the central-subsurface too. The mid-July -PNA may be with an enhancement of this. It's been a tough area to stay constantly warm since the Winter, with a few short term cooler pushes having happened since March, overall a weaker +.
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    Nice -PNA, 594dm block ~7/14. These correlate with a cooler central-subsurface. After a series of +pna's, I wonder if this is evening out, giving less credence to El Nino effecting the N. Hemisphere pattern. It may seem like I'm doing heavy play-by-play, but there are some strong constants right now in the global pattern that I would like to see break.
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    Some rain with 2nd cluster of clouds. Areas that didn't see so much so far might do better tomorrow. I like this front moving across the Midwest ~7/8.
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    Some booms to my SSE (Harford county), nice building cumulus, partly sunny. It just rained 3 hours ago. We are drought busting like crazy. For now on, take months of below average rainfall as instability in the Spring/Summer. Although, if it wasn't El Nino, I don't know that we would be getting this.
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    7-7/8 looks interesting with a trough cutting into/through the midwest.
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    3 years prior to 57-58, we had the most negative monthly PDO on record until last year. It was a transition time/event break point.
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    Global SSTs, chicken and egg. I do know that when a warm/cold front move by, the SSTs warm/cool thereafter. ENSO Is SST, but I wouldn't put much weight on other areas unless it's extreme, or a deviation from upper level pattern.
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    3 year -ENSO followed by 2-year +ENSO, 4th year being an El Nino, also includes 02-03 and 14-15. (4) years since 1950 forward and backward: 57-58, 86-87, 02-03, and 14-15, not a bad list of years if I'm right about our continuation probability next year. edit: 76-77 qualifies and minus 54-55. That's a lot of weak events though. You might want to phase out the Weak Nino's. 86-87 and 14-15 are El Nino, -QBO matches out of the list.
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    I've found 1957-8 and 1986-7 could be good Winter analogs, Both were the start of 2 year El Nino's, which I see as a possibility if this one doesn't go too strong (it's about potential energy). They also both came off 3-year La Nina/-Neutral.
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    Another beautiful night, still, peaceful. orange moon. Love it after it rains
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    If the precip drought continues, we could be looking at the potential for some boomers going into the Winter (as that would signal it's a macro pattern).
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    The +AMO may be something that starts with 15 La Nina's/8 El Nino's, and have more El Nino's vs La Nina's at the end (if it's extended), I fail to see the strong correlation there.
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    The N. Pacific has responded moderately, by giving us less -pna's, and a few +pna's recently, but D15 models show an Aleutian ridge, which could correlate with some subsurface cooling. If this continues through late July, I can't see us getting past a Moderate peak. https://ibb.co/7kGNKpG https://ibb.co/0j72JfM
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    This isn't too impressive, The Western region in recent La Nina's match what we are seeing in Nino 3.4, heading into July We have had these Kelvin waves in recent Springs, anyway Having warm subsurface starting the previous Oct-Nov has been my par for "what could have been a strong event".
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    It's beautiful outside.
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    Round 3 incoming. It had cooled off to the 60s around 6pm, now humid again with distant thunder.
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    This is a good example of the relative minimum's we are still experiencing at a time of global warming. This event remains uneven with the string of La Nina's, and global warming as a whole (if everything were to catch up).
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    Massive lightning bolt shots just to my east. Edit: sirens then the storm cooled down.
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    Cell to my south is really lighting up. Many flashes (1/1-2 seconds)
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    I have nice, smooth Mammatus clouds overhead in Bel Air, cell building to my south. Edit: some CC lightning next to a blue sky. Wish it were dark.
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    The last 2 El Nino's / -QBO's were 14-15 and 09-10, that's the 2 on record in the last 25 years. Last Winter was La Nina/ +QBO (opposite). Extend it to 1979 and you have 86-87 and 91-92. I've contested that a surface +NAO could work better for us these days than -NAO's, but that's another story.
×
×
  • Create New...