Stormchaserchuck1

Man, what a La Nina-pattern on LR models right now. Mild September.

02-03 was the real Winter, 4 months of constant snowcover. I remember seeing the grass 3 days after each of the 3 blizzards in 09-10, That's all. I feel we are in a similar pattern to 09-10, as it is 94F in N. Virginia with a pretty good -NAO today.

I personally didn't like 09-10 so much because the snow melted so fast. We were due for a record setting snowfall in the right pattern since low pressures have gravitated off the coast since year 2000, but these Pac warm air blips quickly following a trough had our blizzards mostly melted in ~3 days. I know most people here love numbers, but these quick variations back and forth with the pna (like today) would give us some warmer air the Wintertime post-storm to melt newly fallen snow. Just initializing out. In other news, Nino 3.4 has just broken +1.5

A trough definitely doesn't support it, as we have a stronger one setting up now, veering Franklin out to sea. The -PNA at Day 15 is still taking shape on models, but it looks like it could pair up with +NAO, which again is a EC, US ridge signal (at day 15+).

Days like today where it casually makes it to 84F, makes me nervous about the Winter. Snow could possibly melt fast, although I think troughs could produce snowstorms.. edit: the pattern is more -PNA today, like March 2023. We need to erase these Aleutian-ridge blips completely going into the Winter, because that is the more constant force right now (-NAO's = Pacific warm air everytime).

With a +NAO (1.32) too...

It happened in 65-66. They seem heavily biased to what happens "in the now", as Day 15 models are showing a strong -PNA developing.

15-day GFS ensembles are going all out -PNA though, which may put a ridge over the SE, US in time for a part of peak season. If a ridge sets up over the NE/SE Canada, that makes Gulf and SE landfalls more likely.

Ben Noll is the top contributor in this thread. It does help to know ENSO mechanics, instead of relying solely on analog-climo for facts. I can't wait to see the string of posts about a +4 Dec and -2 Feb (I have a colder Dec signal). The mechanics of ENSO should work more evenly all winter..

Here you go guys https://ibb.co/gSN5F7W Let's hope this continues into Winter. The 15-day GFS ensemble does show a -PNA, which makes the medium/long term closer to neutral, backing my ~0.4c El Nino subsurface index.

Since 2013, we have had +NAO Winter's almost every year. Since 2016, we have had -PNA almost every Winter. Fix these indexes, and it will be cold enough to snow.. Our "swimming upstream" will come from -PNA, if the ENSO subsurface doesn't stay warm. legit El Nino/-QBO should break the pattern.

I would argue that "bad El Nino's" were not actually an El Nino pattern..

I like that the MEI agrees with subsurface about how weak the Nino really is right now.

Yeah, see how this warming is correlating to +PNA too in 3-11 days! https://ibb.co/0cVDN9G This, I really strongly believe is the key to the Winter (how the subsurface does).

It would be weird if the LR seasonal models miss it this much.. Jan contract of Natural Gas is trading at 3.9, which is closer to average.

I think it's hopeful that our trough/ridges lately (Winter) are connected to ENSO. We don't want to see the El Nino weaken, especially in the subsurface..

That has happened in the past, but usually a GOA low, or low pressure where the NPH (North Pacific High) is, correlates to a downstream trough over the east coast. 97-98 and 72-73 both had subsurface negative anomalies, and I can prove that "bad El Nino's" were just -PNA patterns, because of La Nina-like subsurfaces..

This Aleutian low is from El Nino. https://ibb.co/0BJfyXS How would you guys like to see that Pac pattern in the Winter?

Nino 4 is +1.1, Nino 3.4 is +1.3..

Nice +PNA digging in. Seems to be El Nino related.

Ravens have less than 1:20 Super bowl odds. Good bet? I think their RB's are underrated.

Really nice +PNA coming up, with ENSO subsurface warming. If we can stay very warm below Nino 3.4, the Winter should be full of +PNA troughs. If the ENSO subsurface goes toward neutral/negative, we hit something less +PNA-like.

Yeah, I see on the ensemble mean a +PNA trough captures it. Pattern seems to be supported by the Pacific.

I'm surprised no one talking about Franklin. A lot of 12z GFS ensembles have it close to hitting the coast.

Major hurricane when it's near the Mid-Atlantic/New England is very interesting, especially considering where it already is. Some 12z GFS ensembles have a 500mb low pulling it toward the coast.