Stormchaserchuck1

Models have had an active STJ for the timeperiod.. looks nice if it holds

ensembles got better

Give you the dream pattern

-NAO's aren't usually so wet.. 2nd time this year. Bodes well for our future imo.

Straight up blizzard for the Great Lakes in about half of these ensemble runs.

Let's initialize this <492dm AK vortex.

Nice cross-polar anomaly ridge.. -EPO, +PNA, west-based -NAO, active STJ. All good but the heavy -PNA next 10 days does still render the forward pattern a little weak.. We have been over-initializing current conditions to the models full run so let's see what happens as we get closer.. right now I like it. 50/50 low

Healthy March precip pattern

You might really need some time for this to clear. This is a very warm pattern.

I wouldn't be surprised if this entire -NAO occurs with equally bad Pacific until it breaks.. That +EPO projected for March 1-3 is really strong. Models give a small window around March 10th of a -epo connecting with -nao ridge, but if the Pacific gets good, we might expect a +nao to coincide. (I have a -NAO signal until March 19th, but maybe that will be wrong if the Pac is good.) I think we look a little bit better overall for March 8-19, but it will be interesting because the NAO-Pacific inverse correlation shows no signs of going anywhere, at least in the medium range, at the start of this -NAO.

We don't even have perfectly unfavorable conditions today.. just an Aleutian ridge.

12z GFS ensembles shows a really strong +EPO March 1-3. If it verifies this strong, we could be in the 60s again. certainly not liking the mean trough passing under the west-NAO, it will trend north imo.

I love how this looks with a 50/50 low. Snowstorms in +EPO's aren't happening this Winter.. I highlight the western trough, because that is the point in rising-out-of-NAO that usually produces a snowstorm.

D-0. I tested time lags and found no definitive result vs 0-d.

I like the pattern. EPO shifts out of it's horrid state March 7-8, then you know that research has been done that coming out of a big -NAO block, we usually get a snowstorm rising out of it.. With a +PNA low, and northern Canada hook up of the ridge, I think it may be that trough over the west that we need to watch. or even the threats following, I have a decent N. Hemisphere signal until March 19th.

Looks like we're trying to pop a +PNA as this Aleutian block/ridge fades. I like that big piece of energy in the west rolling under the west-based -NAO block with an above-average STJ in play. ^pacific and atlantic ridges almost hook up here. let's see if it holds.

EPO has trended so warm lately that it might see-saw then. I've seen it happen before. Doesn't mean that a storm won't avoid us when/if that happens.. I like that EPO-timing of our lifting out of west-based -NAO block, and active STJ, too bad it will be the 2nd or 3rd week of March.

+EPO alert Feb 25-March 4. Expect temperatures to bust warmer as we get closer.

1 down, 4 to go. I think we'll have more of an El Nino/+PNA in those 4 Winter's, but when it's not we could bake. Also, the SW is finishing colder this Winter for the first time in a long time.. good news for us for colder eventually back east (SW, US).

I've actually been watching these maps daily since the late 1990s, and I've never seen 6 different areas of shaded purple, at different times. (It almost does 7 and 8 over Alaska and western Russia) http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_12z/ensloopmref.html

Still a strong D-0 correlation between PNA and subsurface ENSO This is really different from rapid developing El Nino. Remember in 2021 and 2022 we had the same warmth below Nino 4. The big determinant is where we are on March 9th/10, imo. We have -PNA until then so let's see if the subsurface cools more... We are back to below average mean 165W->e. Similar actually to last year at this time, although I don't know that we go so deep in March.

They were trying to trim down my energy at a certain point. Fight it. No one can take any little thing from you..

Highest ACE cyclone hitting Madagascar since 1980.. Really nice conditions over Atlantic tropics today, and next 3 days.

Beautiful day in the 60s ^Looks like the Atlantic is getting pretty favorable for a good hurricane season

Volatile. -NAO trends stronger, Pacific ridge trends stronger.