Stormchaserchuck1

In the old pattern October would have been well above average. We didn't max very high in the Summer, and it seems like Fall is on track for normal to below. 18z GFS ensembles have a +PNA developing about October 9th and we would likely be below average around then or after.

I wish I still lived in Mt. Shasta California. Around this time of the year the top of the mountain gets blasted with it's first major snowfall while everyone else sees rain. It's pretty easy to climb to the top. This is when I would set a tent at the top of the mountain and do mushrooms or something lol

I miss KA>

Yeah, everyone knows I'm banned from PR.

Starting about October 9th, there is a real nice signal for +PNA from 18z GFS ensembles http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSHGTAVGNH_18z/ensloopmref.html This is, as ENSO subsurface is starting to warm rapidly https://ibb.co/1nrDtgp (I have in the past correlated ENSO subsurface conditions with + and - phases of the PNA in 0-time. The +PNA being show on 18z GFS ensembles days 12-15 is broad and deep, would reflect some stronger ENSO coupling to the N. Pacific pattern, and possible subsurface strengthening.)

It was looking hopeful last Winter and Spring that we were turning to more +PNA, now it seems like -PNA is coming back...

SSTs are somewhat secondary to atmospheric conditions, and the El Nino has not yet taken control, getting out of the Weak-Moderate impacts/effects limbo range.

It's hard to imagine the -2.5 PDO will overpower with stronger El Nino conditions now developing in the subsurface. If the subsurface continues to warm to 7c and holding, we should have constant variations of +PNA. Less than 7c subsurface and I say we are still in "Weak Nino" impacts.

Should be an interesting Winter. Aleutian low's and high's have been going back and forth, but this is a pretty good +PNA signal in the extended http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSHGTAVGNH_12z/ensloopmref.html

Subsurface is warming actually pretty rapidly right now https://ibb.co/1nrDtgp

I agree with Terpeast's assessment that we are >25-30% likely to see a blizzard this winter or "major snowstorm (>18")" (minus wind). STJ is really juicy starting last December. If we can get that GOA low or +PNA to sit for 10-15 days, it's bomb's away. I don't see the Fall pattern breaking this wetter than average tendency in the pattern. The only problem I see is N. Pacific low's could be transitory.

The last El NIno with -QBO before that was 09-10. Then 91-92, 86-87.

I think we are in a "SE High pressure tendency for amplification"-state so a -PNA would really not be good for any snow right now. +PNA or -EPO is almost definitely needed for snow chances, so it is a good thing we are in an El Nino right now (The Atlantic has proven not able to overcome bad Pacific conditions since about 2013- (Pacific is about 4x greater correlation for cold than the Atlantic in that time so legit El Nino here is what's needed)). Both the High's and the low's are amplifying.

Yeah, it's because of -PNA conditions. We don't want -PNA in the Winter. It's weird that it would correlate with a SE trough in the beginning anyway.

The pattern is definitely wet. I can envision a GOA low or +PNA coinciding with developing coastal/SE low's. I saw that trend last Winter, and it has continued until now, and going forward. -PNA's I think would be drier in the Wintertime.

LR +PNA came in stronger today, 3 contours. https://ibb.co/9pDwnWQ In October, I start looking to see if ENSO is impacting the cooler season wavelengths. In this case, it's yes, but I still think that the ENSO is acting like a Weak event.

We now have a west-based +PNA projected to show up for early October, which is more El Nino-like. https://ibb.co/k9rmC0s

-QBO increases 10mb warming, as does El Nino, so together they are a good 10mb warming signal. These Stratosphere warmings often downwell to -AO.

Not looking like we are breaking +1.6 Strong Nino ground in the North Pacific right now for sure. It's acting like a Weak El Nino, if anything at all. MEI is probably the closest measurement to what's happening in the 500mb pattern.

Going to get a yucky PDO number after the N. Pacific pattern in September. We are not doing better than splitting -PNA's and +PNA's right now. With Nino 1+2 possibly peaking, it's not like a stronger wave of El Nino is on the way, possibly.. That may depress some of the +PNA potential for the Winter, giving us something like neutral or mixed. It's still early though, I just think this pattern needs to change and it's not, and we may need a stronger variable like a re-up of El Nino. MEI at +0.3 or something is a good reflection.

This is a strong -PNA for the next 15 days.. since the El Nino developed in May, we have an even split of +PNA's and -PNA's.

The 00z NAM at 84hrs is considerably south of the 18z GFS at 90hrs. That's a strong trough moving into the NE though. Animation: https://ibb.co/rcBwKjD

Strong El Nino and Strong -QBO is about a 1/25 year type happening. Obviously, there is a chance that it doesn't connect perfectly, but it should be interesting https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u30.index

Heading for a deeply negative QBO Winter.

The thing is already Cat 4. ^That model doesn't show it hitting Cat 4 for another 60 hours. We do ultimately have a +PNA trough sticking in, but it's still pretty far south at 17N, and until it reaches 20N, that's when climo takes it away. 20N/60W is a huge point for it to pass NE or SW from for hits, a NE pass goes out to sea 90% of the time.