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78Blizzard

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  1. 78Blizzard
    Here are a few samples. https://twitter.com/Brendeaaa/status/1168221965473210368/video/1
  2. 78Blizzard
    Outer rain bands approaching West Palm Beach area. https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=AMX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
  3. 78Blizzard
    Most models, including the hurricane models, show the turn already beginning by now, with the eye going N of Grand Bahama Island. Only the Euro had the eye going across the island part way, but turning NW before getting to Freeport. Then we have the modeled stall to consider around Freeport. If that doesn't happen, then all bets are off. I have relatives in Naples, so they look fairly safe there.
  4. 78Blizzard
    This thing had better not continue westward from Freeport or there will be a lot of panicking by not just the public, but also the NHC. It's only 70 miles from Freeport to West Palm Beach. The average track error is 70 miles in this time frame.
  5. 78Blizzard
    I have never seen such general model agreement on the track going out 5-6 days, although some of the hurricane models are a bit further west.
  6. 78Blizzard
    What's really hilarious are the little run to run differences in the GFS track at 5-6 days out. If this were January, this run would show a cutter after an OTS on the previous run, lol. I know winter dynamics are different than early September dynamics, but still.
  7. 78Blizzard
    It takes people's minds off the tariffs that went into effect today.
  8. 78Blizzard
    He's not a weather nut like the rest of us.
  9. 78Blizzard
    Euro further west with a direct hit at Cape Hatteras with a strengthening system after weakening further south.
  10. 78Blizzard
    Sounds to me like TWC is putting their chips on the Euro ensembles, with not one of their members showing it hitting FL. That, despite their warnings that FL is not totally out of the woods. I wouldn't be surprised to see that cone shifted slightly west at the 11 pm advisory.
  11. 78Blizzard
    18Z hurricane model HWRF further sw last two runs now, with inner eyewall over Cape Canaveral and then inland west of St. Augustine and west of Jacksonville. Comes ashore as a weak CAT 2.
  12. 78Blizzard
    I've never seen a track like the GFS follow the contour of the coastline all the way from south FL up through Cape Hatteras without making landfall anywhere. It's almost like the coastline is an impenetrable wall. I'm not buying it. This run puts the Cape & Islands into the outer fringe. Any further movement west and north could be interesting. The previous run had it moving more ENE much further south, now the movement is to the NE.
  13. 78Blizzard
    The 12z hurricane models, HWRF and HMON, have definitely trended back to the west and south. And the interim 6z run of the Euro has also. In fact the HMON now has a landfall just north of FL in Brunswick, GA and hugging the coast right up to Savannah. Be interesting to see the 12z Euro.
  14. 78Blizzard
    It's still progged as a CAT 2 in NE FL on Wednesday evening. Very slow moving. If that high to our north is slow to move out later in the week, this could come closer to us as it deteriorates in cooler waters.
  15. 78Blizzard
    Yeah, I remember attending the Blue Hill Observatory 125th anniversary with my son in late January, 2010 on a brutal cold day here. Paul Kocin and Dr. Louis Uccellini were following the big storm hitting the mid Atlantic while they were giving their lecture.
  16. 78Blizzard
    Just shoveled the front walkway and measured 18 inches. That area is not subject to drifting like the driveway, so an accurate figure. Could have lost an inch due to compaction since it wasn't measured during the storm. Also, there is a band about to come through with another one now flaring up further west, so could add another 1 or 2 inches to that.
  17. 78Blizzard
    One side of my long driveway is lined with about 20 5' global arborvitaes that are really hanging down. Will have to go out to brush them off after dinner. Happens this way in these heavy snowfalls.
  18. 78Blizzard
    Visibility here now 1/4 mile or less. Really dumping.
  19. 78Blizzard
    The guy across the street snow blowed his driveway about an hour ago, and judging from the sides of the paths we already have over a foot here.
  20. 78Blizzard
    Heaviest here now since this AM.
  21. 78Blizzard
    It looks like that band further west is consolidating with that death band, so there may not be much of a lull between them by the time it gets here.
  22. 78Blizzard
    We're ripping now as that band has finally arrived.
  23. 78Blizzard
    Yeah, it's halted its E movement so that we can't quite get into the meat of that band. Just on the edge.
  24. 78Blizzard
    But the east edge has finally made it here and things are ramping up again.
  25. 78Blizzard
    We are in a screw hole here right now.
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