78Blizzard
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Everything posted by 78Blizzard
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I will say this about that 18z GFS run - that is one cold Canadian air mass near the end of that run, with temps in C Manitoba getting to -50°F to -55°F at night and not getting above -20°F for days at the beginning of March.
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James, are you out there...?
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Exactly, and I can attest to that here as well.
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Toss the NAM. Thermals aloft too warm. Use the Euro and Ukie thermals.
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Vendor model error on that map. H700 temps above freezing during the height of the qpf, so that much actual snow is not falling in much of SNE.
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Ukie is colder aloft for the Thur-Fri system.
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While we torch up here, down in Houston in the next couple of days they may break their all time low records, 5°F in 1930, and their low max of 20°F in 1899.
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Maybe if we continue to show how bad a model that is, they might replace it sooner, lol.
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GFS says winter is over, at least for SNE.
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The 18z GFS has 850 Thurs-Fri temps of 10°C to Buffalo and almost to the N NY/Canadian border.
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At hr60 and hr66 on the GFS @ 850 they are 4C and 7C warmer than the 12z Ukie @ hr66 and hr72, at least for my hood. We will see which is correct, if either .
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18z RGEM warmer still from 12z.
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Not going to happen. Time for CMC to retire the RGEM.
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What's interesting about the Ukie is that after that 0z warm burp run last night, it went back to what it had shown for the most part in the prior 4 runs.
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Warm has been the trend tonight.
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It's warmer aloft.
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We used to say that about the NAM, too.
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Don't bother looking at the RGEM.
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For 2/16 it's the battle of the titans - Ukie vs the Euro.
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This looks more like climo from the 0z goofus:
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When was the last time (if ever) that one of those 16 day weenie runs has verified, lol?
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That is still in the L/R, so it can still change.
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Looks good on the Ukie. Gets warm @ h850 near the end but most of the QPF has fallen by then.
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I saw a report that Boston snowfall so far was 3.7" above average. I don't know if that was before or after yesterday's snowfall.
