78Blizzard
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Everything posted by 78Blizzard
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I thought he told you earlier that he has been a lurker and just started posting. Sounds to me like he's done enough reading. It's his reputation on this forum that will rise or fall on his predictions. He must be aware of James.
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I will say this about that 18z GFS run - that is one cold Canadian air mass near the end of that run, with temps in C Manitoba getting to -50°F to -55°F at night and not getting above -20°F for days at the beginning of March.
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James, are you out there...?
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Exactly, and I can attest to that here as well.
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Toss the NAM. Thermals aloft too warm. Use the Euro and Ukie thermals.
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Vendor model error on that map. H700 temps above freezing during the height of the qpf, so that much actual snow is not falling in much of SNE.
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Ukie is colder aloft for the Thur-Fri system.
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While we torch up here, down in Houston in the next couple of days they may break their all time low records, 5°F in 1930, and their low max of 20°F in 1899.
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Maybe if we continue to show how bad a model that is, they might replace it sooner, lol.
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GFS says winter is over, at least for SNE.
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The 18z GFS has 850 Thurs-Fri temps of 10°C to Buffalo and almost to the N NY/Canadian border.
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At hr60 and hr66 on the GFS @ 850 they are 4C and 7C warmer than the 12z Ukie @ hr66 and hr72, at least for my hood. We will see which is correct, if either .
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18z RGEM warmer still from 12z.
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Not going to happen. Time for CMC to retire the RGEM.
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What's interesting about the Ukie is that after that 0z warm burp run last night, it went back to what it had shown for the most part in the prior 4 runs.
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Warm has been the trend tonight.
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It's warmer aloft.
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We used to say that about the NAM, too.
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Don't bother looking at the RGEM.
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For 2/16 it's the battle of the titans - Ukie vs the Euro.
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This looks more like climo from the 0z goofus:
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When was the last time (if ever) that one of those 16 day weenie runs has verified, lol?
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That is still in the L/R, so it can still change.
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Looks good on the Ukie. Gets warm @ h850 near the end but most of the QPF has fallen by then.
