78Blizzard

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Wankum going on about how the sun angle will be an issue with this storm

Lol, an issue on Jan 7...

6 minutes ago, RDRY said:

1/5 dissipated into almost nothing. At least if 1/7 does the same, there's a benefit.

Yeah, if you're the Pope...

9 minutes ago, dryslot said:

The trailing s/w is trying to amplify and bring snow into SNE.

It's just a weird solution,  You could see that high really strengthening this run, so no surprise.

56 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

5 PPD too many. 

Since this is a New England forum, I would think someone outside the geography of this forum shouldn't be given any PPD in this forum.

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yup. It’s a defensive coping mechanism at this point. My guess is if it showed 12+, people wouldn’t be calling it an 18z burp run.

When the 0z comes out, we may still call it a burp run.

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

He’s probably buying a bigger shovel ?

Probably returning his snow blower.

Just now, OceanStWx said:

Yeah, I'll set this up for those who are so inclined: 

This thing is 500 mi to the ENE of where it was yesterday at this time for 12z Sunday.

Just now, Hazey said:

I think mother nature is trolling us at this point..lol. Who knows what will happen. Models bouncing between weak and strong s/w’s.

Like I said yesterday, the models probably won't agree on this one even within 3 days.

That meh/whiff was never off the table.  Many more runs to go though,

Looks like GFS coming north.

EPS based on the mean keeps it 32°F or below here for the duration.  A further northward track will change that, and I expect that mean to tick north in future runs.

The Cape is the winner in that run despite the taint.

This could be one of those situations where the models can't get an agreement even within 3 days.  I remember one of those last year.

Quite the meh evolution.

Euro less amped and south from 12z.

Quite a difference at h5 with the GEFS vs the GFS for the 12th.

Wow, that's some cold modeled for the 15th out in Iowa for the caucuses.  They will be below zero all day, with a low by the next morning in western Iowa reaching -33°F, while BOS bathes at 36°F.

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

GEFS are north too. No surprise there.

Baby steps north before the ENE turn is all we ask. 

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Gfs keeps trending the 5th away for Hazey. Tough one. 

Yeah, but the Euro on the 7th has a consolation prize for him.

Hopefully we will get some agreement among the op models going forward.  The Euro was the biggest deviator from 0z to 12z.  They all have different ideas on what that high to our north is going to do.

We saw the first signs of trouble on the 18z GEFS last night when that high to the north strengthened and started pressing more to the south.

The GEFS gives some hope for the 10th vs the 18z run.

Happy New Year all!

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

Most of that NNE snow comes from storms following the 7th.