78Blizzard

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Only a week and a half until the big storm!

Yeah, this is one time that an 11-day depiction by both the GFS and the Euro will actually come to pass. 

Even a compromise between the GFS and the Euro would be a whiff. 

The Euro has it going even south of Bermuda.

3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's a very large organization of clock punchers doing tasks they are trained for.

It's not a knock on their intelligence or character, but that 06 and 18z was improved recently - it's not hard to imagine the Met making the statement either doesn't know that, or, questions the "up" in the "upgrade" 

Well, looks like some of those clock punchers might have to learn to code:

"Around 600 workers laid off by NOAA, including workers from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center - NBC"  https://x.com/BNONews/status/1895252448551543275

Meteorological winter may be over March 1, but if the 18z GFS is right, the first 11 days of March are going to end up 9-10ºF BN.

Feb SSTs in Boston are at the lowest at this time since Feb 2015, so if we get some marginal situations in March we could do ok.

The 18z NAM still leaves a little hope. Much deeper system and much further nw than 12z GFS.  Also, not chasing convection like GFS since it shows a consolidated system.

Even if it heads eastward at some point, it should come further north before that happens. 

Hope is still alive.

Those holding out hope with the Ukie just saw those hopes dashed.

There is little question that modeling 5 days out this winter has been atrocious.  Hundreds of miles of movement from run to run in many cases.  Anyone disputing that hasn't been paying attention.

Just now, Snowcrazed71 said:

Funny, I said earlier that I'd rather see GFS in Euro on the same page as opposed to the the ukie and the icon on the same page. And I'm talking about the positive outcome side of things

I said some, not you specifically.

I like how some are hanging their hopes on the Ukie, where a month or so ago many couldn't find enough words to trash that model.

It's all about which model produces the best outcome or the most snow.  

26 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

Damn. That doesn't look good. I changed my mind I'm ready to throw in the towel pending 00z. I may even smash my phone.

More favorable trends tonight on the Euro for Sunday and day 10.

Both the Euro and the GFS 12z runs paint a cold 2 weeks ahead, well below normal, sun angle or not.

Just now, Kitz Craver said:

Those aren’t temps, those are snow eating dews

If dews are in the 50's, doesn't it follow that the temps are also?

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Look at those dews

Euro op is all alone with temps in the 50's in SNE.  None of the other ops or ensembles are even close to that.

18z GFS showed the PV further west than at 12z, so obviously it moved closer to the Euro.

The EPS looks even worse than the op.  That PV seems to be retrograding.

It's the Euro vs the world once again on the op.

5 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

The Euro is gearing up for Springtime just to our south....any flex from the SER and birds start chirping their Spring songs. Euro and GFS OPs couldn't be any further apart it seems in the 10-15 range.

The Euro is all alone in that day 12 depiction of the deep trough in the east with a big warmup here. None of the ensembles show that, and neither does the Euro-AI. 

4 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

I would take another 5"

Sent from my SM-S156V using Tapatalk
 

So would I.  Another 5" would get me to 19" for the season, halfway there with Feb still ahead of us.

18z GFS doubled down on Wed with enhanced qpf throughout.  Time for the others to catch up.

Although we are closer in on this, if I remember correctly, the last storm the GFS led the way, albeit too bullish, while the EURO was ots until it finally got a clue.

6 minutes ago, ROOSTA said:

X has always been a no go to for me.
Don't frequent websites that the owner gives Nazi salutes! END OF STORY, FULL STOP!
I'm not buying what their selling.  Mostly lies, profit at all cost which includes freedom.

Amazing winter-mode radar! WOW    

That has been debunked.  A Democrat Senator made a fool of himself today at a Cabinet nomination hearing spewing that nonsense.  I guess some people haven't learned anything from this last election. 

End of political screed...

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm starting to wonder if the biggest impact CC will ever have in this region of ours is specifically forcing weather that everyone hates, period.

Some places in the world it gets unbearably hot.  Some places unbearable cold.   Some get crazy floods.  Others buried to roof eaves in snow...

New England?     just suck, within boundaries that are wholly uninteresting. 

"Attribution science finds the odds of the piece of shitness weather plaguing New England had only a 1::10,000 year chance of boning butts with misery and unfun without CC"

Well, just 10 years ago we had a winter that at least some of us New Englanders loved.  It's all in the timing...

6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Euro has a very cold night here, while the GFS is almost 20° warmer. Euro nailed last night. I got down to 1.2°. So close to zero though it looks like HFD did. 

Got down to 0F here last night.  Tonight the Euro has it -2F, while the always warmer GFS has it at 8F.  I'll go with the Euro. The ridiculous UK has it at 14F.

Lots of nice chances on the GFS for the next 2 weeks. No real warmups during the period.  Will struggle to even reach 40F.

The Euro is determined to go out the way it came in - meh.  Big cutback in qpf from 12z.