78Blizzard

Latest Euro says to GFS, what 90's next week?

I'll sell the 6 days of 90+ that the 18z GFS shows for 8/6-8/11. It won't be the first time this summer that the warmista model was wrong.

Are they ever going to fix the warmista GFS?  Today's 12z had temps at 89-90 right now, but we are at 80 here.  

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Of course but actually even in cities just outside downtowns temps are cooler especially with vegetation. The original post you responded to asked a valid question 

Exactly.  And I have seen no pertinent comment that answers it other than snark.

How do scientists explicitly account for urban heat when measuring Earth's global temperature to ensure that local heat islands do not skew data on global climate trends?

6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

It's going to be tight, but if BOS can go back to back 100s that's not been done since the 40s. This definitely a step up from your low to mid 90s heat wave.

I live 11 miles sw of Boston and the high for these 2 days has been 97.  Comparing Boston temperatures to the 40's ignores the massive heat island effect of all those skyscrapers built since then.

Definitely having brownouts in this area today.  We have window air conditioners in the living room and the bedrooms upstairs, and apparently the living room and one of the bedrooms are on the same electrical circuit as they shut off twice today.  We have lived in this house for over 45 years and never had this happen.  The work around was to find a bedroom outlet not on the same circuit and use the heavy duty extension to keep them both running.

High was 96 yesterday and 97 today.  Now 96.  But those GFS maps a day ago were showing 100+ for both days here, Friday, too.  Tomorrow will be similar to today.  Just your normal summer heat wave, nothing abnormal from a climate standpoint. If the Euro is right, Tuesday you might need a sweater or jacket on the golf course.  And an umbrella.  

2 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

First full week of July looking cool-ish

The Weather Company and Atmospheric G2 project a cooler-than-average late summer for the Great Lakes and Northeast, with all 3 months cooler than normal Jul-Sep.  This is the opposite of what NOAA has for the Northeast.

38 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Signals getting stronger for a significant heat dome D8-11

This is now the 3rd time in the past month or so that the GFS has shown 100+F temps.  The Euro isn't biting with a strong high out west, which it's been showing for several runs now.

I think we need another GFS rewrite. It's such a warmista.

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I feel reasonably confident that when the February numbers are tabulated a couple of weeks from now, we'll see a repeat of this enabling layout that knee jerk triggers myopic types, that have trouble with multi-variate simultaneous awareness of reality they cannot see everyday, into more maddening evidence of compos mentis in the matter -

NOAA missed the boat on their winter temp prediction around these parts, as well as other areas around the country.  I put little faith in these predictions.  https://www.weather.gov/arx/winter2526outlook

I don't know all the models that go into the NBM, but given the projections from the GFS, Euro, and other standard models which appear to have missed the mark by a substantial amount, perhaps we should start looking at some of these other models, especially for storms like this. 

5 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

To Bristol RI and Torch and JackAss and the rest of you Sick of my Bitching.  HERE IS MY PROOF!  

 

Reports have come in that Providence has received 34 inches.  Something doesn't add up here, or you were in a hole.

ARW cut qpf here from 1.99" to 1.27" as of 0z 2/24.

18 minutes ago, dendrite said:

7 minutes ago, NeonPeon said:

I'm pretty sure the outside existed though, and windows, no?

Yeah, they did.  And after taking 3 hours to drive home and actually make it, which is normally a half hour ride, I needed the rest.  If I didn't take the back roads home instead of my usual ride on route 128, I would have been one of the thousands stranded there.  And i got stuck a couple of times and was lucky to make it home.  So yeah, I know the outside existed. 

I slept soundly during the blizzard of '78.  There was no internet to check, and thus no meso models to get updated.

17 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The 21z NBM (v.5.0):

Doesn't that include some from Wed and Fri?

ICON held serve, actually enhanced qpf in some areas.

Still a crushing on the HRRR, but qpf cut back significantly from 12z, which was overdone most likely in SE MA.

SREF is furthest west, GFS and CMC furthest east.

15z SREF held serve at 15z, still a crushing.

SREF held serve at 03z from 21z.  Still a crushing.

Even the Euro track is a bit further north at 36 hr and further west at 42 hr than the 12z run.  Don't have access to the 18z run. Qpf enhanced from the 12z run.

Just saw a map on TWC, and it looks like they are riding the GFS since that map looked much like the GFS qpf distribution at 0z. Just a day or two ago, one of them said the likelihood of the GFS solution (which was more robust than the Euro at the time) was very slim.  You can't make this stuff up.