78Blizzard

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I feel reasonably confident that when the February numbers are tabulated a couple of weeks from now, we'll see a repeat of this enabling layout that knee jerk triggers myopic types, that have trouble with multi-variate simultaneous awareness of reality they cannot see everyday, into more maddening evidence of compos mentis in the matter -

NOAA missed the boat on their winter temp prediction around these parts, as well as other areas around the country.  I put little faith in these predictions.  https://www.weather.gov/arx/winter2526outlook

I don't know all the models that go into the NBM, but given the projections from the GFS, Euro, and other standard models which appear to have missed the mark by a substantial amount, perhaps we should start looking at some of these other models, especially for storms like this. 

5 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

To Bristol RI and Torch and JackAss and the rest of you Sick of my Bitching.  HERE IS MY PROOF!  

 

Reports have come in that Providence has received 34 inches.  Something doesn't add up here, or you were in a hole.

ARW cut qpf here from 1.99" to 1.27" as of 0z 2/24.

18 minutes ago, dendrite said:

7 minutes ago, NeonPeon said:

I'm pretty sure the outside existed though, and windows, no?

Yeah, they did.  And after taking 3 hours to drive home and actually make it, which is normally a half hour ride, I needed the rest.  If I didn't take the back roads home instead of my usual ride on route 128, I would have been one of the thousands stranded there.  And i got stuck a couple of times and was lucky to make it home.  So yeah, I know the outside existed. 

I slept soundly during the blizzard of '78.  There was no internet to check, and thus no meso models to get updated.

17 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The 21z NBM (v.5.0):

Doesn't that include some from Wed and Fri?

ICON held serve, actually enhanced qpf in some areas.

Still a crushing on the HRRR, but qpf cut back significantly from 12z, which was overdone most likely in SE MA.

SREF is furthest west, GFS and CMC furthest east.

15z SREF held serve at 15z, still a crushing.

SREF held serve at 03z from 21z.  Still a crushing.

Even the Euro track is a bit further north at 36 hr and further west at 42 hr than the 12z run.  Don't have access to the 18z run. Qpf enhanced from the 12z run.

Just saw a map on TWC, and it looks like they are riding the GFS since that map looked much like the GFS qpf distribution at 0z. Just a day or two ago, one of them said the likelihood of the GFS solution (which was more robust than the Euro at the time) was very slim.  You can't make this stuff up.

33 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

Must have SREF as part of their calculations

Also, they have ARW, HRRR, RAP, and other mesos.

23 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

00z HRRR slays

looks like timing is a bit slower than 18z run.

Qpf way down from 18z run despite similar track.

2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

That seems fairly far north. Where does it go from there?

11 minutes ago, ma blizzard said:

I feel dirty for posting this but .. 

That had the slightest of ticks west from 15z.  No eastward movement in another model.  Sorry GFS.

Ukie held serve from 12z - no eastward shift.

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

If en masse everything moves like that together, you have to question the validity of the input grids/data initialization.   

When you say everything, you must not mean the 18z NAM or the 18z HRRR, which didn't.  Whether or not they are in their zones.

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Hope we aren’t doing a Jan 2022. Ended up an all timer here, but rug pulled many in the final 24

I still think many here are on the verge of bridge jumping, .  They can say they are just kidding, but we know better. 

Let's get real about one run of the GFS.  Yesterday's 18z run had 2.16" qpf here for this storm only, then at 0z it had only 1.29", before going back up to 1.91" at 06z.  Now it's back down to 1.55" at 18z.  I'll bet it's back up significantly again at 0z.

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah a little SE for sure. 

Flies in the face of NAM and the Mesos which have been moving nnw.

LOL, just saw a storm update on FoxNews and their map depicted an area of 24-36" just south of Boston toward the Cape.