78Blizzard

LOL at the 18z GFS.  We go from a 992mb low just to our east to a 1014 high in 6 hours.  It is d9, but still...

It may be a bit premature, but maybe it's time to start the thread for the final winter month of February.  At least this year we get an extra day for winter.

37 minutes ago, dendrite said:

For those hitting the confused emojis

85-95% of qpf is over by then.

Nice change at h5 allowed this to come closer.

Nice move NW on GEFS.

The dearth of posts in here today told me all I needed to know without looking further.

Near the end of that GFS run showed something we haven't seen much of lately - clippers.

8 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

This winter is functionally an instant replay of last season 

Cold and dry are the watch words.  We may get a week without a drop of rain.

Is the 20th an instant replay?

32 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

This is basically what I was referencing 

I thought that's what you meant.

Getting back to that talk earlier about cutters not moving for 20 runs - they do move, but while that last cutter may have moved here and there during those runs, it still ended up in almost the same spot at go time as the GFS showed 17 runs earlier.  That was all the archive would allow me to backtrack.  But for our coastal storms, how many times do we get 17 runs that show the storm position at go time in almost the same position as the one 17 runs earlier?

1 minute ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Cutter, cutter, whiff… ouch. Hope it changes.

It will...whiff, whiff, cutter.

At hr 90 you could see the orientation of those isobars heading right out to sea.

As far as the "big boy" is concerned, let the hype begin:

That "09" east of GA is the Euro op, lol.

For those who had rain before the snow in the last storm, I would check out those downspouts for ice blockages, especially downspouts with extensions away from the house.  I took out slabs that were blocking the ends of the downspouts today, some which were over a foot long.  That ice is not going to melt very quickly once the rain begins.  It wasn't melting much at all today.

Snow picking up more now, an inch on the ground.

Been snowing here for a good half hour or so now. Temp has dropped a degree to 33°F.  Grass covered and starting to stick to streets and driveways.  Elevation here is about 140 feet.

12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This is on its way 

https://x.com/epawawx/status/1743782587305230680?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

He may be transitioning to sleet as the Hrrr at 0z shows him in sleet.  If not, then the cold air is hanging in there.

11 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

Good luck…I’m down in jersey for this one and there’s almost 4 otg, so hopefully it thumps and ct does 8-12


.

Where in Jersey are you?

Checking NYC snow totals should tell us all we need to know here, at least based on that Euro scenario.  If they end up receiving several inches or more, then we should do better than what the Euro is showing.

28 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

0z HREF now goes out to 0z Monday and the mean is more jacked than any other model (not surprising given what 12z showed )

and the max is kinda funny 

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/?model=href&product=snowfall_024h_max&sector=neI’m 

just click the top right to get to 0z Monday (on the silver  horizontal time bar)

Even the mean is nothing to sneeze at:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/?model=href&product=snowfall_024h_mean&sector=ne

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Good event.  My threshold for the snowblower is >4.  I think it’s looking good.

Mine is gassed up, tested, and ready to roll.  However, that may be the jinx. 

The Ukie appears to be the warm outlier as of now.