78Blizzard

21z RAP just got more bullish for EMA, with 2"/hr rate between 14z and 18z, a total of 8" in that time frame here. Similar outcome in other areas of EMA.

6 minutes ago, MuddyWx said:

anyone know how they assimilate this collected data so that it's available for models? like when would models ingest/use this new data?

Based on the recon taking data right now, it should be available for the 0z models.

6 minutes ago, MJOatleast7 said:

They're NOAA planes, right? If so I believe you do.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

His dream 

It's me and the NAM vs Ray and the 3k Nam.

LOL at the NAM.  14" between 12z and 18z with rain at the beginning of that period.  3"+/hr rate at times.  According to Pivotal.  3k NAM says not so fast.  Just 2".

6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

This is just a cool graphic.

5% chance of that happening.

8 minutes ago, dendrite said:

All you need is this.

Maybe so, but we want to be able to pin down the models that had it right and the ones that had it wrong.

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

HRRR all over the place. 

Why shouldn't it be as confused as the rest of them?

9 minutes ago, KoalaBeer said:

Nothing like covering all of your bases.

6 minutes ago, weathafella said:

So my early am pee run around 7 tomorrow-if it’s flipped by then we’re getting buried.  If not-we may get 6+ but it would have to be snow by lunchtime.

Approx start time for snow in BOS area based on 12z runs:

GFS- 8-9am

Euro 1-2pm

CMC 3-4pm

UK 1-2pm

NAM  10-11am, but early end based on track.

I'm assuming that due to DST, 18z now means 2pm here.

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It makes no sense to me.

BOX is as confused as the models.

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

recon going in soon 

I'm surprised they waited this long to do so.

10 minutes ago, DJln491 said:

BOX trimming some totals

 

 

 

They will be bringing them back up again.  I mean, with all these changes are they putting up WSW only to take them down and then put them up again?  The public is only confused with these multiple changes in a short time period. Most of the public could care less about this being a tough forecast.

As we close in on this, it's good to see the GFS/Euro looking good for BOS metro.  Those are the two models I would want in my camp right now.

2 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

RGEM is probably closer to a good solution than GGEM now. I like the GFS at present, and RGEM more or less in line with it. Can't see 4" QPF on this sort of evolution, 2.5" maybe. 

Suspect the answer is 0.5-1.0 inches rain, briefly sleet then followed by 10-15 inches snow for some coastal areas BOS south, less mix north, and 15-25 inches snow for most inland e MA and se NH, 10-20 southern coastal Maine. 

RGEM had 4" amount as well.

The NAM never gets north of the elbow of the cape, so that keeps the goods flowing in EMA and the cold air in, as opposed to the Canadian.

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I think the Canadian is going to crush. Again. Very consistent relative to the other guidance the last few days.

Went right into Boston bay just like the RGEM at 18z.

The GFS 925s crash at 15z to just north of the canal.

Just now, WinterWolf said:

The NAM has been doing half way decent imo, and making more sense than most. 

It's been most consistent.

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Guidance is trending colder for the commahead/CCB over E MA on Tuesday. Esp the mesos…GFS not as much but it still slays anyway. 
 

But this becomes a bit different if we go 29-31F over the CP on Tuesday with 50mph winds. That would up the impact quite a bit. 

The NAM showed that.

1 minute ago, Thunderblizzard said:

A comical swing on the GFS. Low is way west of 18z.

18z may have been a burp run for the GFS and Euro.

8 minutes ago, NotSureWeather said:

This is honestly crazy. Feel like literally nobody has any idea whats going on. Why does it almost seem like the models have gotten worse over the years?

They should be getting better based on this:

https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/us-supercomputers-for-weather-and-climate-forecasts-get-major-bump

6 minutes ago, ROOSTA said:

QPF lost about 2" across the board.
Dumfounded!

Cape seemed to be the only place that QPF went up.

Hrrr all over at 18z, NAM just getting started a few hours earlier here.

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Lol nam slays. This is hilarious.

At least the NAM is staying fairly consistent compared with some of the other models.  Hope it's right.