78Blizzard

6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

The other sites have the two separate and the fv3 comes out later too.

Exactly!  If you compare the NCEP site GFS with Tropical Tidbits GFS you could overlay them for a perfect match.  As I posted earlier, there is no staff working in the Modeling Center to make such a change, and there has been no communication from NCEP that any change has taken place.

Per the Washington Post yesterday:

Weather models are not being maintained, launched or improved. 

Suru Saha, a union steward at the Environmental Modeling Center in College Park, Md., said the main impact has been on the National Weather Service’s new global forecast model, which was scheduled to go live in February but will surely be delayed because of the shutdown.

But in the meantime, the current Global Forecast System — or the GFS — the United States' premier weather model, is running poorly, and there’s no one on duty to fix it.

“There was a dropout in the scores for all of the systems” on Dec. 25, Saha said of the scoring system used to rank how the forecast models are performing. “All of the models recovered, except for the GFS, which is still running at the bottom of the pack.” Not only does that mean the day-to-day weather forecast is worse, she said, it is also a national security risk.

Saha thinks it has to do with the data format. The model brings in data from all over the world, from dozens of different countries that are now standardizing the format to adhere to new regulations. The Environmental Modeling Center was working to adjust for the new formats when the shutdown started. Saha said that even though the Weather Service is getting the data, the GFS doesn’t recognize the format, so it can’t use it. And a model forecast is only as good as its input data.

“Once the GFS scores start to go bad, it impacts everything,” Saha said. Transportation, the energy sector, national security, agriculture, the stock market, extreme weather. There are about 50 full-time federal employees at EMC and 150 contractors. Only one person is working during the shutdown, she said — a manager who does not work on data or the models. “Things are going to break, and that really worries me because this is our job. We are supposed to improve our weather forecasts, not deteriorate them.”

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This may explain why there was no FV3 at 12z.

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This is like the Challenger Deep trying to find rock bottom...   thinking they're crawling across the final floor of the abyss only to find another drop off - 

Rock bottom will be when the pattern changes favorably only to get suppression.

18 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Full whiff this run but better vs 0z

It may have been better than 0z, but it looked even worse than it did at 12z yesterday.

FV3 late today, too?

2 minutes ago, TheCloser24 said:

12Z GEFS look more amplified than the OP.

Trended N, too, so there's also that.

GFS went N this run and FV3 went a bit S, looking somewhat disorganized.  Opposite of their 18z movement.  Let's just blend the two and lock it.  Not staying up for Dr. No.

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

From cutter to big Maine crusher to a Mid Atl special.

Given that it ranks at the bottom for accuracy, we should like this run. 

Congrats ACY on both GFS and GGEM.

25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

In Fv3 we pray?

Isn't that also affected by the shutdown?  It came further N this run while the GFS went S, lol.

The GFS may be bad, but remember this just 2 1/2 days ago from CMC?:

10 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Who is cancelling snow?  I just meant the GFS has gone in the shitter since the federal shutdown...not that it was great to begin with.  I would just give it less credence for now.

Even the NWS in Boston didn't have kind things to say about the GFS today.

2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Any new obscure ones out there that haven’t been dissected yet? 

When the JMA and NAVGEM are OTS, too, close the shades. 

Looks like Roanoke's year.

22 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The usual trope applies ... it's just for entertainment at this range... but, that 180 hour frame there is a blizzard.  Period.

What happens there across that evolution is light snow and flurries goes to 1/3 mi vis with 1/4 mi vis along the pike.  4-6" or so... Than, at closest pass, band of locally < 1/4 mi vis pivots up to Rt 2 with a lighter 1/2 to 3/4 mi vis fading to a bullets in wind from middle CT to Brockton Mass...  'Nother 5+" NW to 2" of ice/ammo/ and noodles SE... Then, as the storm concentrates media at max, bands meld and CCB with winds accelerating to 50mph gust with 1/4 mid vis everywhere for a clear 4 to 6 hours ... good for another 4-6" with falling temps through the low 20s making much of it airborne

How it's fun to speculate -

Snowbowl at Foxboro.  Let it happen.  Then let's do it again the following week, assuming Indianapolis wins.  (oops, also assuming we win next Sunday  ).  Yes, it's fun to speculate.

17 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

They should see the experimental run ... heh

Quite the difference in where the two models place that big high to our north.

5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

That would most likely be a SE/Mid-Atlantic storm, there's no way this would get further north with such a stout high over New England.

That high was retreating from previous run.  Needs to retreat a little more.

Congrats Rocky Mount area.

Nice burst of snow here with temp drop of 6°F in about 15 minutes.  More flakes than I've seen since November, lol.  Dusting on grassy areas.

GFS is toying with the Mid Atlantic folks with that eye candy at hr 360 for the Delmarva.

Euro op looked better to me than EPS for D8.

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

GEFS are solid!

Great!  We don't toss.

CMC and GFS worlds apart on D9 system.  CMC brings northern energy all the way to the gulf and pulls it NW from the Carolina coast.

Biblical rains for D9 on CMC, lol.

Not that we will feel any better, but 94% of US reporting stations had above normal temps in December.  That's after 75% of them had below normal readings in November.