78Blizzard

14 minutes ago, dryslot said:

A hugger track is worst case scenario then a landfall over one area, Dorian could rake the whole east coast of FL.

This thing had better not continue westward from Freeport or there will be a lot of panicking by not just the public, but also the NHC.  It's only 70 miles from Freeport to West Palm Beach.  The average track error is 70 miles in this time frame.

I have never seen such general model agreement on the track going out 5-6 days, although some of the hurricane models are a bit further west.

18 minutes ago, yoda said:

18z GFS gives SE Mass into Nantucket some fun at 126-132

What's really hilarious are the little run to run differences in the GFS track at 5-6 days out.  If this were January, this run would show a cutter after an OTS on the previous run, lol.  I know winter dynamics are different than early September dynamics, but still.

6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

No but neither is my grandmother and she doesn’t need to be told twice that there’s such a thing as a Cat 5 lol.  Each one is something he’s certain has never happened before .  

Just makes shit up all day long.  But whatever works ha.

It takes people's minds off the tariffs that went into effect today.

He's not a weather nut like the rest of us.

Euro further west with a direct hit at Cape Hatteras with a strengthening system after weakening further south.

48 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

Now watch the storm barrel right through FL into the Gulf

Sounds to me like TWC is putting their chips on the Euro ensembles, with not one of their members showing it hitting FL.  That, despite their warnings that FL is not totally out of the woods.  I wouldn't be surprised to see that cone shifted slightly west at the 11 pm advisory.

18Z hurricane model HWRF further sw last two runs now, with inner eyewall over Cape Canaveral and then inland west of St. Augustine and west of Jacksonville.  Comes ashore as a weak CAT 2.

I've never seen a track like the GFS follow the contour of the coastline all the way from south FL up through Cape Hatteras without making landfall anywhere.  It's almost like the coastline is an impenetrable wall.  I'm not buying it.

This run puts the Cape & Islands into the outer fringe.  Any further movement west and north could be interesting.  The previous run had it moving more ENE much further south, now the movement is to the NE.

The 12z hurricane models, HWRF and HMON, have definitely trended back to the west and south.  And the interim 6z run of the Euro has also.  In fact the HMON now has a landfall just north of FL in Brunswick, GA and hugging the coast right up to Savannah.  Be interesting to see the 12z Euro.

It's still progged as a CAT 2 in NE FL on Wednesday evening.  Very slow moving.  If that high to our north is slow to move out later in the week, this could come closer to us as it deteriorates in cooler waters.

Visibility lowering and the wet streets are now snow covered. 

Ukie still has some good QPF for both systems combined for BOS areas south, although far SE areas would have some mixed precip and rain, especially on the Monday event.

James, you can just change the date on that snowfall map and use it now for Monday. 

What's really funny is that the Euro had this as a cutter through the GL on Sunday. 

IKON is paltry, too.

4 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Greatest pressure falls as of this hour are over Norfolk and the SE Virginia region, not over Cape Hatteras, NC, that means the low may be developing further northward.

The lowest pressures are around Hatteras now.

3k NAM looked better for PYM south.

We've gone from    to   in less than 24 hours.

1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

I'm siding with the 18z GFS given current trends in satellite imager, short range HRRR, 3km NAM models and their intensities.  Winds could become a bigger issue according to the 3KM NAM.  Blizzard conditions are a possibility along with thundersnows across the Cape.  We enter the Warm conveyor belt and the ccb develops overhead along with potential comma head dynamics towards 6-12z tomorrow.  Snow duration is expected to be around 18-20 hours, along with the potential for the H7-H92 lows to close off just southeast of CHH tomorrow midday.  Along with the likelihood for intense cyclogenesis as thunderstorms erupt off the Delaware coastline.  Also with the intensity of the lift and convection associated with the primary low over NE Tennessee currently and with the primary shortwave negative tilt along with intense frontogenesis likely and vertical velocties will lead to intense lift(omega) in the DGZ (Dendritic Growth Zone).  Also the duration of the speed of the storm looks to slow down according to the HRRR guidance.  Ocean enhancement along with potential coastal front development will likely lead to higher snowfall totals of near a foot and a half over Plymouth and Bristol counties in MA, with Provincetown, MA likely far enough north to miss out on mixing and where potential banding could be maximized.

If that verifies, I'm for replacing the GFS with the James model.

6 minutes ago, NeonPeon said:

So the gfs has almost entirely caved to the nam at this point.  Good on box for entirely ignoring it.

Talk about a cave: 

Five days ago the Euro had this going thru the Lakes, so things could be a lot worse.  Just saying.

GEFS much more bullish than 18z.

Ukie 0°C 850 line gets up to BOS at hr 36 and then collapses SE.

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

UK looks like the GFS

That's a good thing.