78Blizzard

1 minute ago, Powderboy413 said:

Wow the CMC Buries everyone next weekend. I would kill for that

Sign me up for that bullseye.  I know it's the CMC, but that solution makes more sense than the GFS to me.

9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

   Beggars can't be choosers.  We take whatever flakes we can get these days.

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Anything is on the table, past behavior doesnt predict future outcomes in the chaotic nature of weather when it comes down to what is really mesoscale on a hemispheric basis. In other news HRRR gives ACK 2 to 3 big jump North west

Both the 3 km NAM and the RGEM show OES for Monday for much of E and SE MA.

8 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Once Vinateri missed a pat distance FG you knew it was over.

You would think that after kicking the tying and winning field goals in the "tuck rule" game in near blizzard type conditions, that a little snow in KC wouldn't bother him.

54 minutes ago, weathafella said:

We snow in KC

Really surprised at Indy's ineptness so far.  Not over by any means, but doesn't look good for a Foxboro snowbowl next week if the Pats get by the Chargers.

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Agreed.  But I’m skeptical about blaming the woeful gfs too much on that important aspect.   Hopefully the shut down will end soon and we should theoretically see a spike in performance a few weeks later if that premise is mainly responsible.

I agree, but the way things have been going, the shutdown will probably end when winter is near an end.  At least it will help for hurricane season. 

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

It’s a union officials opinion as to why gfs sucks.

I think the facts of what he said are correct.  No one is there to adjust the GFS for the new data input format, so data that is available and readable by the other global models should be more reliable.  I don't know about the CMC, though, lol.

6 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Who said that?  Maybe some raobs that went down and can’t be fixed with the lack of current appropriation but most are functioning?

I referred to this blurb from a Washington Post article several days ago:

"The current Global Forecast System - or the GFS - the United States' premier weather model, is running poorly, and there’s no one on duty to fix it.

“There was a dropout in the scores for all of the systems” on Dec. 25,  Suru Saha, a union steward at the Environmental Modeling Center in College Park, Md., said of the scoring system used to rank how the forecast models are performing. “All of the models recovered, except for the GFS, which is still running at the bottom of the pack.” Not only does that mean the day-to-day weather forecast is worse, she said, it is also a national security risk.

Saha thinks it has to do with the data format. The model brings in data from all over the world, from dozens of different countries that are now standardizing the format to adhere to new regulations. The Environmental Modeling Center was working to adjust for the new formats when the shutdown started. Saha said that even though the Weather Service is getting the data, the GFS doesn’t recognize the format, so it can’t use it. And a model forecast is only as good as its input data."

Based on that run, Jimmy will be getting the last laugh on the rest of us.

9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Why not? It’s an ana followed by a miller B followed by another lol. 

I should have said for the 20-21st.

Don't bother looking at the GFS or CMC @ 0z.

I saw today where Vail Resorts stock was down $27, or 13% from yesterday.  They reported much lower pre-holiday resort visits.  I hadn't heard of any poor conditions there nor a lack of snow.  I wonder how NNE ski areas are holding up?

1 hour ago, MJOatleast7 said:

Anyone catch that 936 (ouch!) low in the C Pac yesterday (that went into the Aleutians). Something that powerful's gotta have an impact downstream, any guesses what? (Reminds me of the 926 or thereabouts - lowest pressure ever in the Bering Sea - in 2014 and you know what happened after).

I did mention a couple of days ago that it had a pressure drop of 62mb within 24 hours.  I believe the biggest such drop in 24 hours was 97mb during Hurricane Wilma in 2005, from 979mb to 882mb.  Still, for a non-tropical system that is quite impressive.  I would take a benchmark system with half that drop with all that cold air to the north.

2 hours ago, dryslot said:

Not the right thread for this, But curious to who the elder statesman are in our forum? I know you and Tamarack are close, And then where we go from there.

I'm same age as Jerry, 72 last Saturday.

1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

Yes

People are just frustrated with the pattern but the 2nd half does hold a lot of potential. Key word " Potential "

I've shoveled a lot of "potential" this winter thus far.

Here's a bomb in the Pacific heading for the Aleutians.  There was a 62mb drop in 24 hours from 999mb to 937mb.  I'm ordering a benchmark one of those for us.

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It didn't because it wasn't as strongly supported. The pattern by that point is conducive to an east coast blizzard...as is climo with each passing hour.

#emptylogic

My point isn't to lock that threat, but rather is a reasonable possibility because it has support.

That was the only model showing such a westward solution.  My point was to not get invested in CMC D9 progs.

28 minutes ago, yoda said:

I think we all would enjoy what the CMC is cooking Day 9 and on... and I believe it would be one of 40/70's big storm he has called for in his winter outlook.  By the way, check 18z GEFS at 252... support is there

A bit different look... but 00z GFS also hitting the Jan 20 date hard

Here's a reminder of what the CMC had on D9 for this Sunday.  How did that work out?

12 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Ugh. I know it’s verbatim OP, but it’s more rain for me. Woo

Given the history of this winter thus far, I wouldn't be surprised if those LR systems verify.  

17 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

sucking us back in....but it does look further north at 66

Enjoy your cirrus.

1 hour ago, Hazey said:

I just don’t know how this won’t get the job done

That member out near Bermuda is skewing the mean. 

I'd love to see the FV3 score a coup on this with the consistency it has shown.  Otherwise, it will be at the bottom of the pack for verification, at least in the intermediate range.

25 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Yeah FV3-GFS has consistently brought the system close or even inside the BM for at least 6 straight runs

I assume it does not generally have better verification scores vs. GFS,  but this will be an interesting case test

Actually, according to this it has a better verification than the GFS:

30 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Weenies desperate for a solution...pretty funny 

There's always the JMA.   Actually, it was close at 12z to the look we want.  I'd even take that solution here.

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Chris (GYX) said its implementation is delayed at least another month because of the shutdown.

Right, and that was mentioned in that WP article earlier, too.