78Blizzard

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

GFS is awful for this area.....folks can stop lamenting the NAM

Yeah, we're sucking the exhaust here.

11 minutes ago, dryslot said:

0z RGEM looked warm and wet.

Anything going over the canal at this time of year and with this air mass in place cannot be good for us in E SNE.

Actually, Rockport MA is the jack on that 3k NAM as far as SNE is concerned, which makes sense considering how far E it is.

Not a good start for the 0z suite, NAM or not.

8 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Was  going to tune the snow blower, maybe I should hold off.

I just tested mine today.  Probably the kiss of death.

RGEM treats ME quite nicely.

4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

3k nam seems to hit Boston and scooter better than the others over to far eastern Maine but that’s it 

Yeah, it has 11" in imh but the snow depth never gets to more than 2", lol.  These models are so hilarious.

Congrats DE ME on this run, lol.

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Let me be the first, Toss.

Went from 1.40 to 0.11 QPF on this NAM run, lol.

I've still got a few more leaves to rake up.

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Its weaker and east @H5

925 warmer too, so no dynamic cooling.

Be good if the NAM holds serve here at 18Z for us in SNE, maybe even tick  a bit colder.

Just now, Cyclone-68 said:

If we can now summon up some thunder and lightning to go with it that’d take the cake 

I can't take any more of Cantore's antics.  Keep him in Atlanta.

Do we dare say that the NAM was leading the way on this the past few runs?

13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Is it too early for the RPM?

 

I like the northerly wind flow with it due S of us as it approaches the benchmark.

7 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Well, the NAM is terrible here. Went from big snow to zilch in 6 hours. Classic NAM. A blend of Euro and NAM/GFS still has me as ground zero. A whiff seems like a real possibility now. 

Speaking of lamentations, your whiff is our potential win here.

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Great. Two shitty modes agree.

Well, at least it was going in the right direction.

The NAM took a step toward the RGEM in this run.

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

RGEM is the first semi interesting solution here... prob would look similar to the event 6 weeks ago. 

Except that we had some colder air than we will have for this one.  It seems that when we get an early season snow of any substance around here, we starve waiting for the next one.  I know it's only 12/2, but just saying.

9 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

There are weenies here who have been chained to the model wheel of pain for decades. They know what is best in life:

”To get crushed with snow on all models, see the snow driven before your window, and to hear the lamentations of the weenies to the south.”

I remember some recent years when all we heard were the lamentations from PF when we took away all his snow. 

24 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Everyone complaining about the Euro. If KORH receives >0.10" of QPF from this storm, then all complaints should be directed at the GFS which legitimately has 0.05" for the weekend at ORH.

Time will tell which one sucks!

The GFS in this last system on Monday sucked big time from a QPF standpoint.  At 72 hours, which is where we are now with this latest system, and for most of the subsequent runs it was calling for <1" here.  As it got to within 24-36 hours, the few runs that had QPF just a bit >1" started to go down to just under 1".  We ended up with about 2.6" here.

27 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

18z RGEM jacks metro-west, ha.

At least the RGEM had a consistent track from its 12z run, albeit a bit slower this time, thus allowing the somewhat colder air a bit more time to rush in.  It wasn't finished at 84 hrs either.

7 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

18Z GFS  Nada, goes SE   18Z Euro  Way west, mostly rain

Well that narrows it right down

Goodnight

RGEM was a nice blend of the 18z Euro and the GFS.  I'll take it verbatim.  Maybe we can get a new model leader for this winter, 72+ hrs be damned.

Nice eye candy for mby on the 12z Euro.  Most likely as good as it will get and it will be all downhill from here, lol.  Not getting invested in this, as I remember ly when we had all those 7-8 day potentials only to see them disappear by day 4.  A winter to forget.

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah that was the winter....2009-2010. It still gives a lot of people PTSD about a -NAO despite what happened the next winter with a strong -NAO....then 2013 and now this March. 

Ill say to wiz, confluence isn't a bad thing. It's only bad when it's so strong we get whiffed. But confluence helps with frontogenesis so you can wring out extra precip too...and on would-be rainers, it can force them underneath us for snow instead. 

Yeah, I remember attending the Blue Hill Observatory 125th anniversary with my son in late January, 2010 on a brutal cold day here.   Paul Kocin and Dr. Louis Uccellini were following the big storm hitting the mid Atlantic while they were giving their lecture.