78Blizzard

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

18z gfs ticking NW too

Nice trending near go time.

Euro further north than GFS and Ukie for Sunday, resulting in mix and rain for EMA.  Based on the Euro's 5-6 day performance in the last system, I'll wait on them until 24-36 hrs.  

18z NAM collapses the cold air south and enhances the qpf so that we could get 2-3 inches on and after midnight in this area.

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Wagons south

Looks to me like the cave is coming from other than the Euro.

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I also cannot believe the model differences at less than 48 hours out. 

If this is any sign of how models are going to interpret future winter storms, it's going to be a long winter with much bridge jumping. 

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I feel like we beat this to a pulp enough already. You’re definitely close to the line. I’d feel most comfortable right now from about Worcester to say Salem New Hampshire on North and West. Didn’t say that on purpose for Ray, but he may be close to the line too. 
 

if the euro is right, maybe shift that south 25 miles or so.

If the Euro is right, it looks like 50-75 miles south.

5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Think this is pretty realistic though the RA/SN line may be a tad too close to the coast in Mass...not sure I see all snow on west side of downtown Boston.

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2025113018&fh=loop&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=ref1km_ptype&m=rrfs_a#

Again, this model shows 3º C vs -1º C on the Euro at 850 @ 0z Wed for this area.  Would you go with an experimental model or the Euro at this point if you had to make a forecast?

This model war will be won or lost at the 925 level.  At 0z Wed, the NAM has 4º C in this area vs -1º C for the Euro.

13 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Euro looks a touch more amped/consolidated.

Looked more than a touch.

Euro AI not caving.

1 hour ago, UnitedWx said:

Possibly, as long as you're not talking about the NAM this far out. It's not useful yet

If the Euro caves at this time level, I would say it's not useful either.

Well, this storm will give us a heads up on which model(s) to give a modicum of trust, if any, as we go into the winter season.

I probably just jinxed the storm - just finished putting snow stakes along the front lawn near the street and test fired up the snow thrower.  

LOL @ these temp maps. Tells you all you need to know - inland runner vs ots:

It still looks like the Euro vs the rest of the models.  The Euro has never shown a hugger or an inland depiction as opposed to the GFS and Canadian.  We'll see. The Euro may be about to become as useless as the NAM at these time periods.

The GFS is clearly the outlier and it is all alone with that depiction.

When you compare the 18z GFS and NAM @ 84 hr, you can see @ h5 the GFS trough is just about to turn negative, while the NAM is nowhere near turning negative. 

Despite this warmup of the last couple of days, the cold November has given us now the coldest SSTs for Boston in the past 7 years, which in a marginal situation could be a deciding factor whether we rain or snow in this area.

33 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s lots of 70’s to near 80 on a few days and 50’s at night . 

Euro has lots of 60's for you next week for highs. Many days hovering around 70 also.  Didn't see anything approaching 80.  You must be looking at the GFS.

1 hour ago, kdxken said:

I actually hope it warms up come late September and October when the climate numbers are lower.

Looking at the 12z Euro, it doesn't look good for warmth over the next 15 days.

I have been following the Euro and GFS progs for the past 6 weeks or so, and it is quite obvious to me that the GFS for the intermediate and long range consistently overstates 2m temps at 18z time frame for most of us.  It appears that the warm bias is still there in this model.  Just look at today's differences between the Euro and the GFS at 18z times for the next 15 days.

Back in late May when the Weather Channel put on their US map of forecasted June-August temperature anomalies, they had the Northeast well above normal.

Well, not sure about other areas, but Boston was about normal for June, 68°F on average, a degree above normal for July at 75°F, and 2 degrees below normal for August at 70°F.  So I would classify that summer period as normal to slightly below normal, a far cry from well above normal.

I don't put much reliance on these forecasts.  They now have fall temps well above normal once again for the Northeast.

57 minutes ago, dendrite said:

91.2°

3rd straight 96+ for CON

GFS way off here today.  Latest GFS, 12z, had us at 95F here at 18z.  High today has been 85.

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Only a week and a half until the big storm!

Yeah, this is one time that an 11-day depiction by both the GFS and the Euro will actually come to pass. 

Even a compromise between the GFS and the Euro would be a whiff. 

The Euro has it going even south of Bermuda.

3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's a very large organization of clock punchers doing tasks they are trained for.

It's not a knock on their intelligence or character, but that 06 and 18z was improved recently - it's not hard to imagine the Met making the statement either doesn't know that, or, questions the "up" in the "upgrade" 

Well, looks like some of those clock punchers might have to learn to code:

"Around 600 workers laid off by NOAA, including workers from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center - NBC"  https://x.com/BNONews/status/1895252448551543275

Meteorological winter may be over March 1, but if the 18z GFS is right, the first 11 days of March are going to end up 9-10ºF BN.