78Blizzard

All those weak outliers to the east are not happening, so the mean is actually even closer to the Cape.

Except that the GFS and CMC have been steadfast pretty much throughout, and now the Euro is finally catching on. The trend away from an ots E movement has been apparent now for many runs on other than the Euro.

That includes snow from tomorrow's system.

I'm waiting for that Euro run that shows us getting destroyed. Hopefully not a wait in vain. Then we'll know it's game on. We'll see the GFS getting back to those snow maps we saw on 3 consecutive runs on Monday. I can dream, can't I?

I wouldn't be surprised to see a stalled monster off the Jersey coast by tomorrow's runs.

The longer this system is delayed, the better our chances.

The ICON 500mb now looks like the Euro at 12z. Quite the change from 12z.

The Euro is not giving up their outlier role without kicking and screaming. At this time yesterday there was no storm at all. At 0z, it put up a weak nothingburger off the NC coast heading E ots. Now it puts a stronger system a bit further north offshore but still heading E ots. Maybe by 0z it will finally find its way.

LOL, Euro has nothing Sun-Mon.

With this snowy pattern, the torch keeps getting pushed back further and is weaker and not long lasting when it does arrive.

Euro says "What torch"?

I'd hate to hang my hat on the Ukie, especially now since the Euro went east like the GFS.

Except that now the Euro looks like the GEM, .

The lowest they got down to in 2015 was 36º F. As of Feb 7, the 2015 temp was 1.8º F higher, 37.6º F vs 39.4º F.

Boston SSTs now coldest since 2009. https://seatemperature.info/february/boston-water-temperature.html

Any stats available on the verification for the AI models?

18z Ukie has widespread 2-3" for most on Wednesday. Nice refresher.

Meanwhile, the actual GFS 12z op looks nothing like that for the one third of the country in the east. I wonder what AI uses for its sources?

Those southern and eastern outliers have the mean further SE than would otherwise be the case.

This is the 3rd crack at this by the Euro. It lost it twice. Is the 3rd time the charm?

Euro = days and days of snow.

Try pivotal and you won't get the same result.

Pivotal snow algorithm has a problem, as they show the 18z GFS with .4" qpf here and just 2" of snow. Kuchera is also wrong.

You can be sure that if this was/turns out to be a rainer, it will verify.

Here's the answer I got from AI when I plug in the -1.9F others reported: "Boston's January 2026 weather was 1.9°F below normal, with a monthly mean temperature of 29.4°F compared to the typical average of 29.9°F. The coldest temperatures occurred mid-to-late January, with lows dropping to -13°F on January 26 and -18°F on January 21. Despite the cold, snowfall was moderate, with 10 snowy days recorded, and total precipitation at 1.76 inches, which is 52% of the normal January rainfall. The month began with milder conditions, peaking at 53°F on January 15, but rapidly cooled as the month progressed." They show a mean of 29.4F and an average of 29.9F, a difference of -0.5, hardly -1.9. And Boston certainly didn't get to -13F and -18F during the month. If this is how AI is going to work, I'll never use it again.