SnoSki14

There are no indications of that. If anything all signs point to another snowy winter. Maybe you're right about the cold though. The only way things go south is if we follow an 06/07 progression.

It's going to change eventually, Nino conditions gaining traction this week. That along with climo wavelength changes should start beating down the ridging later in October.

If the 2nd half keeps it up then there's no doubt it would be the warmest October on record for multiple eastern states.

Incredible model support, EPS shows relentless AN heights. First 10 days of October could be +10. Not sure how you erase something like that for 2nd half. WAR pattern has been a dominant force and has been verifying much stronger as we get closer. Models today are actually showing the most ridging yet with mid 80s surface temps.

Thoughts on the abnormally warm October to come, I've heard that it looks more like a La Nina pattern than a Nino. Is this due to the relatively weak state of the Nino?

It may be enough to give us a 90F reading and models could easily trend stronger with the ridging. Incredible. We should see multiple days in the 80s. On the other hand if the ridging keeps building north then we'll probably see more onshore flow with the mins generating the greatest departure from normal.

We could flip from summer to winter, that's what it's looking like. Also watch the tropics, could see a system spin up under that huge Eastern ridge.

Hasn't it been that way for years now. Quite obvious this is our new normal. I can't recall the last time we started out cold in early October.

Autumn and winter will likely be extremely warm, this pattern is locked into place and there's no escape.

Welcome to the new norm, nonstop torch months. Should easily continue well into the winter. Doesn't even faze me anymore, it is what it is.

HRRR gives us nothing

1st half of October will likely torch however there's a clear persistent -EPO that should translate more favorably as we get deeper into autumn. Nino effects will also start kicking in.

Too late for us, any storms will likely fall apart once they cross into NJ.

Huge heat/ridge signal showing up for early October so you're not wrong.

Dodging everything again. Noticeable central NJ rain hole since the summer especially over Middlesex county. NJ Precipitation Departures

It has been much cloudier than normal especially near the coast due to non-stop onshore flow. It has felt like a warmer version of Seattle this month.

I think the cool autumn ship has sailed permanently. At this point we'd be fortunate just to avoid the top 10 warmest fall months.

Most rain ever in tropical system for NC definitely ranks as a lifetime event for somebody. I'm not so sure the total impacts post Flo would've been any different. Had this been a Cat 4, it likely would've been a much smaller storm, so that only a small portion of the coast would receive those winds. Again when people talk Harvey, they often point out the flooding, not the Cat 4 winds. Finally location matters, the LF location was not heavily populated, so while the winds and surge would've been higher, not a lot more people would've been affected. No Houston, New Orleans, or NYC in the way.

The freshwater flooding is only just beginning, by next week several rivers will be at major to record crest heights. Max totals have already surpassed any hurricane there on record and will likely exceed 40". I think the economic costs will rival Sandy. Pretty good for "only a Category 1".

Flo should easily break Floyd's rainfall record and NC State records. Radar is showing more widespread and increasing rainfall rates spread further inland. I think the tone will be a lot more sobering a week from now (all rivers crest).

The scope of the damage will reveal itself soon. Speaking of lackluster media coverage, one of the strongest landfalling typhoons on record is occurring right now and I haven't heard a peep about it.

It has always been like this, the same things happen with any other weather event especially snowstorms. I wish people understood all the possibilities instead of jumping on the most extreme one and going along with it. Yeah if you ride the hype train, then anything less than a 10 will feel lackluster, which is extremely dangerous because then people let their guard down. You don't need a worse case scenario to get a lot of damage.

Oh wow snow in the mountains, crazy.

All Sandy had was surge, there was barely any rainfall north and east of the storm. Had Sandy not struck the most populated (and expensive) region in the US, the damages would've been moderate at best.

They definitely aren't readable.