SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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If it's correct then people are not ready for what's coming
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That wouldn't surprise me. Often it starts faster than expected and ends earlier than forecast.
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As long as it's a strong, dynamic system then I prefer a very tucked in track maybe 50-75 miles SE of ACY
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Yes it was.
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I still can't believe the GFS OP pulled this off.
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Let's keep our expectations in check though. Remember NAM struggles mightily beyond 36-48hrs, we're just entering its more accurate range.
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Correct. Whatever hundredths of QPF we lose to a mix won't matter once the storm gets going.
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Um no lol
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Well when you keep weening out over every storm eventually you'll be right.
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Good point. Imagine the panic tomorrow if warnings go up for 12-18"+
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Is the public really aware of this. I know they generally expect snow just from talking to people but I feel the hype has been far less than the Jan storm.
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If it follows that playback then amounts will keep going up until start time
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I saw that and was in awe. I don't recall seeing a 60-72 hour ensemble prog that strong. The true scope of what's unfolding may not even be apparent yet if that's correct.
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Because it's not done trending yet.
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It tends to be more suppressed in general. Odd outputs sometimes. I remember with the Jan storm it kept spewing 3-4" totals over NYC and into my region too vs the 10"+ amounts we got.
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Having a 3 day ensemble mean have a 976 low is crazy.
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GEFS look really good
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If only it started tomorrow afternoon. Another harrowing day of model runs before the whole picture comes together
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I know we always worry about could go wrong but what if the storm is still trending towards a bullseye.
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The NAM would be a verified blizzard. It has sustained winds of 30-40 mph with gusts of 60+ pretty far inland.
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Plus there's ensemble support. It's a bit early but the GFS has done really well with this, shockingly so. Very consistent too. Broken clock type scenario
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Very possible although ensembles suggest a westward lean which could hint at more west trends tonight and tomorrow
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Agree, Mt. Holly are the watch happy ones
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Got more maps for the EPS
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No watches from Mt. Holly yet. Still on the cusp here. Need another 50 mile west shift. Although they usually hold off until later afternoon
