SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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Models are clearly jumping on the more phased trend.
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Really good winter. Cold and snow pack longevity, at least one big storm. Below normal temps Dec-Feb but needs one more good storm (6"+) to move this winter from a B to an A. Snowfall currently near average Feb has 2 weeks left so we'll see if it can deliver something otherwise it'll be a solid B winter. March weather is always extra to me.
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Still remember the post Superbowl snowstorm when it was like 60+ the day before
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It's plenty cold the night it snows.
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It's amazing what a little bit of phasing can do
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It should get active with gradient like pattern setting up. CPC 6-10/8-14 day agrees. How much and what (rain/snow/mix) is the question
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Not really it just can't figure out how much phasing happens. Other models did slowly trend towards it too
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Yeah it's worth looking at. The slight difference in phasing makes all the difference.
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We barely had any precip going on 3 weeks now by this weekend. This has to be one for the record books.
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Kind of an interesting gradient pattern setting up latter half of Feb. Models have been leaning on the colder side too, overall prob near normal which is good enough for snow chances.
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Well now I'm expecting a blizzard.
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Just as long as there's no wind
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Interesting how a more phased system really pulls that cold air in from the northern stream.
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It's not impossible for things to come together in this lead time and granted the Euro AI throwing us a bone is interested but it'd be tough to pull off.
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Surface temps are actually pretty cold. The overnight timing helps. However a very tight rope setup regarding any phasing
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Drought severity expanded in NJ and other regions. Not a shock since all we had was a snow shower and some freezing drizzle in the past 2+ weeks. A warm March would be very bad unless preceeded by rainy weather. Snowpack melt helps a bit but won't be enough.
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The CC related fast flow has definitely played a role in lack of coastals. I think 10+ years ago we would've scored with the big coastal earlier and the one coming up. Northern stream only systems is why half the country is in a drought
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With next system going south the dry streak will continue. This will be very bad heading into spring. Things need to turn around quickly
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Well yeah met winter ends March 1 so we got about 2 weeks left.
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You need a phased, strong system to get enough dynamic cooling for snow.
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Only if there's a lot of easterly flow which isn't guaranteed.
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The upcoming system, if it happens, is like a springtime bowling ball. Those commonly favor New England and I strongly believe that's what will happen. Their snow climo is still very favorable even in the CC era while ours drops off sharply by mid Feb.
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There's no cold air, it's going to be rain of it happens Hopefully we get the rain, we really need it.
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No chance in hell the Euro verifies Cold source is minimal. If there's a storm it will be more like the Icon and rain
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Bone dry pattern continues. Not even rain either, just dry.
