SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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The northeast will be the cool island in a sea of warmth this spring. BDCFs should be quite strong this season.
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2026-2027 El Nino
SnoSki14 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Multiple 100+ readings in Phoenix likely this March...that's nuts. -
Will still be quite chilly especially after the warmup. Crazy heat SW US. Phoenix could have multiple 100+ readings and even Vegas approaching 100 in March, which is nuts. That's like us seeing 90s
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The mid March period has some merit.
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Near 80F is like late summer warmth with the nearly September sun angle Although the NAM shows some very strong sea breezes really cooling the coast down.
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No matter how big or hardy the pack seems, it doesn't take much for complete eradication in March
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A Somerset, NJ BN Temperatures DJF Prolonged snow cover 2 Major Snowstorms + multiple clipper systems Ice build up on lakes/rivers On par with 13/14 and 14/15 and very close to 02/03 & 09/10 The only thing that kept it from an A+ was seasonal snow amounts were less than the stellar years like 10/11. Also 1st big storm had a bit too much sleet for my liking.
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I'll think it'll warm up but ridging stays west and we'll be more prone to BDCFs. The month doesn't scream torch to me
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GEFS catching up to EPS MJO moving into phase 8. Trough could trend stronger though without any blocking may be transient.
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It's a short cool window. With AO staying positive, cool downs can't last
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Next week will feel like a different world until reality comes back of course
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Ends Sunday
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-AO for sure, NAO I'm not as concerned about. What would be helpful is a list of all 4"+ NYC March-April storms and which teleconnections were present to get a better idea of what you'd need for late season snow.
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There's no mechanism for that. AO needs to go negative and I don't see that. Colder air is WPO driven with PV on our side of the globe. Probably a lot of lakes cutters, active start to severe weather season
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Oh it's definitely happening. Records will be shattered
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Based off a LR OP run?
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Euro gets to 8, no surprise its ensembles are a lot colder LR vs GFS
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Next week especially midweek does look record warm. Is that exaggerated, perhaps but down in Jersey we saw 80F in Feb 2018 so it's definitely on the table. 80s to snow?
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The problem is the PV is on our side of the world so it wouldn't take much for cold air to seep south. March is very fickle. We could touch 80+ and see snow a week later. We actually did that in 2018 when Feb saw 80 and then we know what happened next. I'm not saying we're getting snowstorms but the window hasn't completely closed.
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It's mostly torchy. It'll cool off at times but signal is very warm. There's no 2018 style comeback coming
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Huge differences in the shaded vs sun zones here. Shaded spots still have several inches while sun spots it's mostly grass.
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Surprised 02-03 isn't in the top 20. It definitely is for the New Brunswick area.
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And it wasn't even that warm. Plus no rain either. Just the power of the sun
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It's possible but I'd be surprised if April is warm, maybe by us near NYC but not further north.
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Yeah I wouldn't doubt a repeat of winter in the east. These patterns can lock in for a long time.
