Lightning

Excited to have cold end of Nov. into early Dec. Hopefully Lake Michigan provides some decent LES starting Friday into next week. Beyond that MJO is currently beginning to go into 4-5-6. Those are not cold phases especially as you get into the heart of December!! What is worse is the models are starting to shows it dragging and possibly stalling in 5. Blast on through those phases and it would be fine but stalling / dragging through them . If the MJO doesn't change or another signal take over then mild will return mid-month December. I am excited for the next couple weeks and believe there should get some snows out this even though the Thanksgiving storm has gone south on us. Hopefully the actual MJO will not follow the models well and move quicker toward Phase 7 or dive into COD.

Don't take me wrong. My comments were mostly referring to the constant changes we are seeing the models. Just this 12Z run alone is a bit better overall. My point was that while are seeing variable cold runs in which there are some mild signals which I believe is causing the model variability. If the MJO ends up more around/in the COD, instead of moderate in the warm phases, that will help allow other colder signals to have more pattern power. You know I want it blistering cold with lots of LES and super-clippers!!

No sustained blocking. Pacific is a bit of mess. MJO going into warm phases a bit. December may start with some cold but unless something changes it will progress to mild during first half of December.

Sorry to hear that you didn't get any. I did better than I thought would occur as it snowed nearly all day here with occasion moderate rates. It came in pulses and in between the pulses there was some milky sunshine that would cause the temperature to jump a quickly above freezing. Melting would occur until the next batch of moisture would move in drop the temp and it would snow. Most of the day thing were coated but by 3-4PM the temps stayed above freezing and with the warm ground temps and it was all gone by 4PM even with light snows continued on and off a few more hours.

Got very lucky (for this area) as a small area of snow set up this morning and hung around for a few hours. Some HI-Rez models did hinted at it. Definitely not what WI into IL are getting but definitely enjoyable to see snow falling most of this morning!! Great to see snow in the lower lakes area. Enjoy WI and IL peeps!!

Yeah I have noticed NAO in Nov/Dec does not fully act like the NAO of Feb/March with the suppression. It is pretty darn negative right now. If it was March this current storm would have likely been down in Cincinnati area southward!! On the other hand if I recall correctly several of our better storms, in the lower lakes, the NAO tends to be around 0 to -1 (Dec-March); this is something I discussed with Harry several years ago. The NAO average forecast is looking pretty good going into next week.

Nice to see snow covering things this morning

I80/90 in Chicago area would be a total disaster even if it doesn't happen

Sadly, after today's rain it looks pretty boring around here but still an interesting system nonetheless.

Wow this system is basically going to go completely around me. Starting south of me 18Z tomorrow, go around and about 30 hours later be south of me again

Sorry to hear about your parents. I am nearing the point with mine all too soon as they approach 90 in the coming couple years. I just love the 4 seasons and this doesn't bother me (my wife hates it though). I will be honest, cloudy cold rains in April with t-storm west and south does drive me nuts!!! My nephew just moved to Florida as he hated northern weather!!

Wow that 83 you mention; nice: Great to see you getting slammed there. I loved getting the massive storms in the Keweenaw!!

If you hate the weather here then why do you live here? Plenty of jobs in Florida.

All the models are now trying to figure out what is going to happen as Sara is no longer going to impact that next system nearly as much as previously expected. Got to love the chaos

Living in Houghton and the Keweenaw it was very common that it would snow to the south a few times before finally getting anything of value due to the 'warmth' of Superior.

You would love my drive. I watch the temperature impact of large buildings, paved roads, dirt roads, farms, lakes, elevation and so on. It is fun to watch. Urbanization does have its impact on local events.

The 2019 storm was awesome widespread 8-12" storm for most of SE MI!! November 2018 ah yes there were several snows but most were 1-3" event. roardog I think you recall the 2018 post-Thanksgiving event had a one of the bullseyes on your area. Flint area Nov. 2018 ended up more snow than Nov. 2019 but Nov. 2019 had the greater storm.

Here is the confirmed tornado report: https://www.weather.gov/dtx/November10_24HollyTornado That cell basically went over my house. It was windy here.

It was definitely great to have it nicely rain 3-4 hours.

Decent rain event this morning 3/4"

I think he meant 11/24/31

I'll buy what the 12Z GFS is selling.

If you are looking for all three month DJF to be below normal temps and above normal snowfall. Yep it has been over 5 years as the last below normal December's was 2017. 2017-18 was a remarkable winter around here as Flint broke it all time record snowfall. I can say my last decent winter IMBY was 21-22 was well above normal snowfall with both Jan. 22 and Feb. 22 being cold and snowy. Keep in mind lots of cold doesn't always equate to lots of snow. 1995-96 with it cold DJFM (all 4 months were below normal). Yet snowfall was abysmal with most of it coming in March. Detroit ended '95-'96 with 27.6" which is just a few inches more snow that Super Nino winter of 1997-98 @23.5" and last year's 22.6". Like you, I much prefer it to be both cold and snowy However I will take mild and snowy/stormy over cold and dry!!

It was interesting to see a good westward & stronger trend with this system after seeing so many be faster and weaker in recent months/years.

My total is now up to 1/2". Yeah, thankfully many areas in MI did well. Once the significant shift west with this system occurred in the models, the results are actually better then I expected. Many times, I have seen these MO/IA/WI flooding rain events produce nothing more than a clouds and drizzle IMBY.