Lightning

Cedar Point is the best case scenario for me that is for sure for this type of storm.

ICON, ICON, ICON!!!

I haven't looked at the SREF in a couple years now. They were more comical than useful for snow IMO.

Agreed; I would prefer not to get ice storm either!!! The Vort at 500mb is not closing off and remain progressive. The shifting in the models seems to more related to the Vort placement. I don't think there is much further NW it can go. Of course it is the weather

Got to love it. Today the GFS goes weaker/South and Euro goes north/stronger. . I'll take the RGEM . Wouldn't be fun without the model chaos.

Being the Euro at least I have a chance it could happen. If it was the GFS it would be a flat 0% chance

Light stuff has begun here a bit ago . The models last night were basically giving me nothing. Hopefully 1" or so will fall!!

Sadly the model just are not that good especially at the surface in the mid/extended for this area. The past few years I personally have treat anything they show at the surface beyond 60 hours is just pure . Like playing the lotto; you know your not going to win but just the daytime dreaming of winning it is why many play it! The main thing I get is that this is going to be more active than we seen all winter and there is definitely potential for some decent events!! Much better odds

Fixed

GFS today has joined the party

A storm the models haven't disintegrated into nothingness within a couple model runs!!

This is just some thought and not directed toward you. Just something I think might be impacting this conversation. Part of the issue: "2013-14 and 2014-15 were the last good winters." This might be very true for some areas (I don't know as I don't live everywhere ). But where I live this is not true. Yes 2023-24 was HORRIBLE. 2017-18 was Flint's snowiest winter. There have been several awesome events in the past 10 years around this area. My point being that everyone perspective is different based on your location and the events your location is getting. I recall a few years ago I was getting 2.5" of rain in a thunderous crashing thunderstorm. Just 10 miles away it was sunny and not a drop. Depending on your location can make all the difference in the world to your perspective of the weather!! In the end right now for me this winter is not wonderful but it also has not been that bad. But I will absolutely agree it has been horrible in your area and I know it has been for a few years now.

As do most of those who do these social media posts. Considering that is basically the main thing most weather geeks want (i.e. historic events), they are just appealing to the majority of their audience.

Or image these winds after a solid ice storm

MTU / Houghton MI Blizzard Warning:

PL/ZR event. Nothing overly exciting. Models showing snow here were wrong.

Thankfully there is hope to at least get some covering with this next system. I still have a glacier IMBY but a nice fresh covering would be nice!!!

Very nasty icing here this evening. My driveway was covered by 1/8" of ice. We had heavy fog and drizzle all day. Now that temps are below freezing the past several hours with RH still around 100%, the driveways and back roads have become horrible.

Ditto here with snow cover length. We lost half today. Now havea solid 2-3" glacier.

And we underperformed here with expect highs in the mid-40s but only got to 38.

The unwanted whiteout today ... dense FOG

Maybe 1/2" here at most. Currently have 4-6" on the ground.

I believe you will have some good snows coming up; hopefully something major.

I love this area too. The NE corner of Livingston/ NW corner of Oakland, I specifically choose to live. I honestly sold my last house for a big loss back 12 years ago ( during the crash) and moved here. Haven't regretted it yet. To be honest I go to Fenton most as I am closer to Fenton than Howell Note: I finished with 2.5" on top of my 2" glacier.

It was awesome but sadly over. Got a good 2" out of it!! It was a cake snow too