Aurora are always hard as the incoming data is very limited until they start but there are a lot of positives for this event. The sunspot position and CME timing was basically perfect as it was directly earth facing when it occurred. Plus there was a good CME with it that looks like it was directed at earth. The event from a few days ago seems slower as nothing yet from it but it still possible tonight. The coming event I would not predict it to beat the May one, but it definitely could as the May sunspot was not in very good position as it was about to rotate out of view the next day.
This ranks as #15 in the top measure events using X-ray flux. 14 X-ray flux measured events greater than this one. Most of them the CME's were not earth directed or only glancing blows at best. The ones more directed/Earth facing had CMEs that were mainly not directed toward Earth with one of them the CME was pretty weak. Don't get me wrong some did produce good Aurora so I am not knock them. I love this stuff!!
I am really look forward to it but know to keep tempered expectation with Aurora