Lightning

It has been impressive. Picked up 2.5" today of LES and getting another band right now. My well head is about an 1" from being buried. The top is 14" above ground.

LES has been great today. What beautiful winter day. Spent 4 hours out cleaning it all up with the dog out. Overall heavier snow that was more like 10:1 snow ratio plus yesterday's ice layer made it a bit more work.

Spot on Stebo! The amount of convection as a concern was something I mentioned early in this thread; I should have listened myself . Storm total: 1.5" with 1/10" ice coating for Saturday. 3.5" last night into this morning. So a 5" total. Currently have 10-11" on the ground would have been more but that misty ice period yesterday compacted the snow that was already on the ground. Looks awesome and wintery outside. Ready for a cold week ahead.

Sorry if I came across so negative earlier. I made the mistake of getting my hopes up way to high. Was definitely bummed this morning. The models performance yesterday was not so good and it's my fault for drinking the Kool-Aid. Went out and enjoyed the Ice Festival on our lake today and then took the wife out for dinner. Great day even though it was freezing mist all day. Hoping for a few inches tonight.

If I moved to Florida my focus would be thunderstorms. When I wanted snow I would be going to places like this: https://x.com/Superchri90/status/1887125401513726218?t=8MmNItjtgSBpaZcHo95DwQ&s=19 Edit: Next winter we are planning to go to this part of Japan for a week.

Got maybe a 1". Developed a little late. Now it's freezing drizzle/mist. My passion for this one is in the tank. Sorry but time for me to do something else

Yes. That area is one of the best for LES. Love the Muskallonge Lake area; unfortunately the SP is closed this summer.

I don't know where you are getting this from?? Winter is one of the themes of Michigan!!

Agreed. Regarding the petering systems: It took me several year but I have learned the well developed systems moving in favor area to the west and north of here even with the models always just keeping it strong. It is a lot more fun being on the maturing/strengthening side but definitely more stressful/risky

Marquette is ~85" as of 2/14/25. A bad year there but most everyone in the MW (of side of LES belts) would be shattering records if that was your current year to date snow. Bo's location likely has a bit more than 100" but still well below normal. The Keweenaw is doing better as the winds have been favoring them more so with LES. Marquette does better when there are more storms which have been lacking.

Just got going again here. When I woke it was ice pellets and graupel; now actual quarter sized flakes.

So for this winter the 10:1 have been fairly good for my area (keep in mind that is not the actual ratio but it works out). But I only use them and stopped looking at the others as they are more like porn!! I was not expecting 18"as that would be foolish. My hope was 8-12" (i.e. 10") total based on all the trends and potential being shown yesterday. While it could still happen I think it best to temper my expectations to 4-6" and hope for comeback as the 12Z NAM showed

Sad. I was really hoping this would have been a W to E 6-10" system for many. Turn into a crazy chaos and suddenly a nail bitter over here.

Last night was not as surprising to me. It is like summer with the nocturnal storms. When they are robust in IL and WI, when they arrive over here they are typically a dud. Things were to redevelop significantly this morning into the after noon with 2-4" expected throughout the day but now the HRRR is has strongly gone way from that. Went to bed with most models outputting 10-18" for the whole event. Wake up today with several models now showing 3-5" for the event. Let just say I am nervous to see the 12Z run.

My guess is northern OH will do best out our this system.

Not looking good. Oh well. Today's 3-4 is now in tenths of an inch. . We'll see how tonight goes but my hopes are pretty rock bottom right now.

Glad to hear the thump is overperforming for you all Edited Oops misspelled

Is it ever past rush hour in Chicago

Crazy long LES band of Lake Michigan off the back side of the storm. This could set up some areas in SW MI into IN nicely.

If I recall the changes made by NWS recently is 7" in 12 hours and 8" in 24 hours to be a warning in Michigan. So WWA seems correct at this point.

WAA might be fun tomorrow. I like the set up of this one.

I agree this is how it should be done too. The 500 mb Vorticity is not closing off. If it did than the strength of this system would be relatively more of a slam dunk!! This will be a lot more now casting event as strength and orientation of the Vorticities are actualized coming out of the Rockies into the MW. I think the more traditional closed off systems are a bit easier.

Might need to read that again. 3-4" through 8PM Saturday.

Crazy how different it is just a state away!! I hope the WAA gets going enough which benefits you too!!!

I am hoping this is one that come together right over head. I have to admit my excitement had already started