tarheelwx
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Everything posted by tarheelwx
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February 18-19 MAJOR Ice Storm Threat
tarheelwx replied to NorthHillsWx's topic in Southeastern States
I suspect watches will begin to spread out just a bit with the afternoon package. TW -
That was my second "saving grace". I've seen it happen plenty of times before. When it happens, it often kills the wedge. TW
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For those of us in the Triad, out of the ICON, RDPS, NAM 12k, and NAM 3k, the one with the least amount of ice is the NAM 3k and it has .45" of freezing rain by 7am Thursday morning. If other models tonight show the same/similar, it might be time to have a game plan for power outages. Saving grace could be sleet, rates so heavy that much of it doesn't accumulate, Miller B with a dry slot, or maybe the temps are modeled a couple of degrees too low. TW
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18z ICON if anything is just a touch colder. Keeps CAD areas of NC aob freezing the entire event. I'm not buying it, but it does have me paying attention. TW
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I agree. Need to get the NAM within 48 hours or so. TW
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Can anyone post the 00z Euro ice map for comparison? TW
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Can you provide some guidance on how you read that sounding and how you know it is sleet? The warm nose looks awfully warm and thick. Thanks in advance. TW
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At this range, I'm looking more at trends - I see the RDPS is just a little little colder on Thursday, and so is the ICON. TW
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GFS says the threats come back next weekend (3/1 or so). TW
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All the way into the upstate. Wow! TW
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Marginal temps definitely have helped out. Still almost 50k out of power in the triad. TW
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Probably getting close to 1/4” on trees here. TW
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Scratch that about roads being fine in Greensboro. Yes, market street from Colfax to UNCG was fine, but I came back on Bryan Blvd, and the bridges out bear 68 had ice with about 6-8 vehicles off the road. Worse than I thought. TW
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Now up to 21k in the triad.
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Just drove from Colfax to UNCG area - roads are fine on Market St but bridges on Bryan BLVD at 68 were a mess. Trees have a nice glaze/crust but not as bad as I expected. The marginal 3- degree temp has helped. I think we may see more buildup if the precip stays light rather than mod/heavy. I checked Dukes website about 5:30 and 15k out of power in the Triad. TW
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Been at 30.2 in Colfax foe awhile now. Freezing most places except roads. TW
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So legit frozen falling in Oak Ridge? TW
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We already have straight up freezing rain in Kernersville and Colfax. Heavy enough to keep the wipers on all the time rather than intermittent. So, perfect for accrual at the current 30 degrees. TW
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Totally agree. On most all of our winter storms, there is a noticeable difference of some sort from NW to SE. I think it is even more in Wake due to the size of the county. Guilford isn't nearly as big. TW
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I think it has more to do with Wake being such a large county. The WWA makes sense in the northwest part of the county, but not so much in the southern part. However, it is fairly uncommon to split a country for winter advisories and warnings. TW
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RAH has issued 2 WSW’s this year and neither came close to verifying. I think they should this time but wouldn’t be shocked if they didn’t. TW
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I suspect we'll see ISW's going up over the next few hours. I guess RAH could make an argument for staying at an advisory, but that seems a bit of a stretch. Every model I've seen on the 12z or later runs are showing warning criteria zr in the triad. For fun, check out the new Euro at 144........ let the trend begin. TW
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Just dropped to 30.9 here in Colfax. NAM has us bottoming out at 29 tomorrow morning. Will be interesting to see what NWS does about advisories/warnings for later tonight and tomorrow morning. TW
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31.6 and light freezing rain in Colfax. Trees are getting coated. Still a nice covering of sleet on the deck. TW
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31.6. My deck looks to be covered in sleet here in Colfax about 5 miles from GSO. Did anyone else in the triad get sleet? TW
