tarheelwx

6 weeks. Right through the heart of winter. Here it comes. On the other hand, we were cold last January, but had very little to show for it. TW

And the 18z GFS has a doozy leading up to Christmas for parts of NC. TW

That would be a good one. TW

Listening to my weather radio this morning as I was getting ready for church, the forecast for the northern mountains was calling for wind chills this week of -120!!! It did this multiple times for the Tuesday-Thursday time frame. That’s a good one. TW

Light snizzle in Colfax. 28.2. 1" of fluff. TW

That's what I was thinking. Not a whole lot to get excited about if you're more than 20-30 miles west of 95. TW

It's all about the trend - 18z NAM increased total precip by 0.10" in GSO and Hickory and 0.20" in CLT. Hard to say about the 18z 3k NAM as it really didn't go out far enough @ 12z to compare. But through 54hrs on the 18z vs 60 hours on the 12z, they were very very similar. TW

I'm thinking for the triad back to the mountains that for this to be good, it will be primarily a mid afternoon to Wednesday night storm. If it ends up wrapping up by 6pm like some models have shown, then I think totals will be on the lighter side. On the other hand, we have the 3km NAM and hopefully the HRRR was about to show something similar with precip expanding out west. TW

How does the 3km NAM perform compared to the “regular” NAM? TW

I agree. I'm hoping that whatever the 3km NAM is cooking up comes to fruition. It has alot more moisture back in the western half of NC and seems to be a fair amount slower. I could see it putting out 0.50"+ in the Triad. TW

Each 12z model has a bit more precip in the western piedmont. Hopefully this will continue a few runs. TW

In the last 48 hours for the triad, it has given 0.2” qpf the first 4 of those runs and 0.10” the last four runs. Not saying it will be right, but that’s about as consistent as it gets. TW

AI has been saying this for days. Has wavered very little. Truth. TW.

Here’s to hoping the 00z runs begin pulling this back a bit. Based on the amped look at 48 hours, I’d be a little surprised if it didn’t come back west a bit. TW

Elizabeth City.