RedSky

The ECM height map for the northern hemisphere is depressing day 10, signals significant pattern change won't happen until February at least.

The great January 2020 mass extinction of slugs, moths and stink bugs is only days away

A sure bet for second half of January is the heating bills will be building substantially

Seriously it better not because we have moths around the floodlight already and if the bears come out of hibernation there isn't any food lol

That 1994 potential reverts to 2019

Early onset senility And the fact the climate seems so screwed up the analogs and guidance are unreliable, isn't it all banter in the end

Two camps on the coming pattern change: Camp 1 - Pattern change to cold and possible snowy after the 16th, many in this camp expect this to last deep into February which would be unusual we usually don't do that very well but it can occasionally happen. Camp 2 - Change to normal/below after the 16th likely lasts 10-14 days then oscillates back to first half of January pattern. This falls in line with the mild winter forecasts that have scored highest to this point. Also Weather World a few days ago did their 5 week outlook which is 2/3rd of the time normal to above, which argues this cold wave will be transient. What does this mean? We better score good snow the last third of January because that may be all she wrote outside of more late season garbage like the last two winters.

^ Things only go wrong 99% of the time, you always have that 1% hiding in the shadows lol

Welcome to my last winter lmao

Yes it is. There was a time where it rarely had radical shifts at this range like it just did from 0z - 12z

Mid month weenie roast, s'mores for desert

Just when you thought winters couldn't get any worse my favorite star Betelgeuse in Orion is dimming

Last winter epic patterns lurked 15 days away until March, then it half worked out

I'm thankful for a majority dry next 10 days, the inane wet streak was killing holiday spirit throughout the land

Two weeks away it could happen

Heard Elon Musk is building an Ark but good luck reserving a spot Has there been even 3 dry days this December it's been wretched

Redsky Weenie Handbook rule 47 - November Iranian blizzard brings 5-10" rain here in December and a pittance of snow.

Didn't it snow last last week? And that rare middle east snow in Iran in November is killing us, always seems to prelude some atmospheric process that is detrimental to winter in the Mid Atlantic.

Electric bill to run a freezer of that size...in the summer

You want to see dead the upstate forum is like life after people...

It's all about the analogs, past winter patterns with the predicted AO/NAO/ EPO/ PNA /background ENSO, MJO cycle and even solar state. Climate change plays havoc with analogs.

You have three main choices for a winter forecast below, normal or above and he has two of them covered. 2/3 chance of nailing it

If how the computer runs have handled the first winter storm is any indication, gone need a case of Jack Daniels to get through this one.

Just found and read Don S winter forecast. Very much like Isotherm's pretty dismal outlook

12z ECM NW of yesterday's which is looking like one errant mid range blip it often did that last winter. 90% of the time these Miller B's that hit New England the snow maps are too generous in the SW quadrant, food for thought.