RedSky

A sure bet for second half of January is the heating bills will be building substantially

The primary tracks north of Chicago now. How was this not expected with our dominant SE ridge, bad Pacific?

18z was a small step back, bumped storm track NW a tad and and a kick in the groin to NJ. Doesn't matter GFS is laughable at this stage, and a long history now of exaggerating snow totals. * but the GEFS pumped out some fantasy drama lol

ECM all the way and its still 5 days away

With main low pressure over lake Erie and the secondary developing over land in SE New England why even bother.

Seriously it better not because we have moths around the floodlight already and if the bears come out of hibernation there isn't any food lol

That 1994 potential reverts to 2019

64F at 11pm and MOTHS at the floodlight, ok were doomed

Couple good years there vs the 80's

Langhorne deep into the urban heat island land of concrete and asphalt it's legit. I hit 68F

67F A nice beach day in April

67F Do I need sunscreen today lol

ECM is in no way like 94 and GFS has a terrible fantasy cold bias

I just spotted a slug!

Early onset senility And the fact the climate seems so screwed up the analogs and guidance are unreliable, isn't it all banter in the end

Two camps on the coming pattern change: Camp 1 - Pattern change to cold and possible snowy after the 16th, many in this camp expect this to last deep into February which would be unusual we usually don't do that very well but it can occasionally happen. Camp 2 - Change to normal/below after the 16th likely lasts 10-14 days then oscillates back to first half of January pattern. This falls in line with the mild winter forecasts that have scored highest to this point. Also Weather World a few days ago did their 5 week outlook which is 2/3rd of the time normal to above, which argues this cold wave will be transient. What does this mean? We better score good snow the last third of January because that may be all she wrote outside of more late season garbage like the last two winters.

^ Things only go wrong 99% of the time, you always have that 1% hiding in the shadows lol

Welcome to my last winter lmao

Even the awful record mild January of 2006 gave me 2" snow it better do something

Spotted a cricket the size of a shrimp last night.

Yes it is. There was a time where it rarely had radical shifts at this range like it just did from 0z - 12z

Mid month weenie roast, s'mores for desert

In actuality the first three weeks of December HAD the cold AND chances, just the chances misfired. This last week and where things are going in January is a new regime.

When it comes to winter in this region the hardest thing to do is get a great Dec 15-Jan 15 stretch. I fail to understand why it remains mission impossible, odds would say it happens every several years.

Early snow/big cold and middle eastern blizzards gain credence as bad omens.