RedSky
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Everything posted by RedSky
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It's all about the analogs, past winter patterns with the predicted AO/NAO/ EPO/ PNA /background ENSO, MJO cycle and even solar state. Climate change plays havoc with analogs.
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A mild December is already in trouble. I am going to switch to the Old Farmers Almanac for guidance.
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You have three main choices for a winter forecast below, normal or above and he has two of them covered. 2/3 chance of nailing it
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Last burst and 1.5" SN Met original expectations
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1.1" SN Six weeks of winter last year to get that off to a rocket start
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.75" The almighty struggle to make 1" continues
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The Pocono's and upstate PA got it the worst as far as expectations, has the ECM ever failed this bad. Dead in that forum too like they could care less lol.
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Observations of snow, sleet, freezing rain Sun-Tue Dec 1-2-early 3
RedSky replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Miracle grow -
Wasn't there some groundskeeper guy promising a big storm a coming
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Worst thing is i saw this setup as a snowball chance in hell of performing five days ago, then all the fantasy model outputs for days, only to end as a melted snowball in hell.
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My forecast was cut and looking at radar trends and 18z runs the 3-6" warning is a bust although 3" is a remote chance. Welcome winter!
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Waiting on the ULL currently over central PA to move east it should expand these anemic radar returns.
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Important note the upper low is currently over central PA, over the next several hours the radar should fill in over eastern PA/NJ for the bulk of round #2
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.3" the snow is intermittent and non accumulating the last hour. Radar is not impressive no signs of expanding in NJ.
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Winter storm warning hoisted here for 3-6" from NWS Winter storm warning for 5-8" continued for Qtown/upper Bucks? Interesting is it going to fill in that far west.
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Observations of snow, sleet, freezing rain Sun-Tue Dec 1-2-early 3
RedSky replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Mod SN and 35F -
I am seeing people say this isn't a miller B but whatever it's label it's a late developing coastal and they just love to short their SW flank on predicted snow.
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Ten minutes later now moderate snow and 35F. Last winter I endured at least half a dozen systems forecast to be 2-3" and received <1", can it go the other way for once? * most of those events ended up .1-.2"
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I have yellow radar echoes spinning over my head and what do i have to show for it? Some errant flakes and wet ground it's hard to believe. 5" from this really that is the official forecast?
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0z ECM close to the Ukmet and focuses on NJ, radical changes but it's a system that will do that
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Add the UKie it cut qpf like the NAM last on deck ECM
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Thankfully the hrrrrrrrr is a bad model
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But the 3k NAM saves the bacon, honestly no clue what the rest of 0z runs hold
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From the little I saw it doesn't effect SEPA but it screws eastern Monmouth and NYC. Makes little sense that an eastern move would do that.
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18z euro got people
