RedSky
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Everything posted by RedSky
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Charlie Brown what did you get for xmas "I got a lake"
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Come on man 5" rain by tomorrow and a nasty mild last third of December better than 50/50 chance favorable it ain't Hopefully improvement in January still too early.
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Awesome another big rainstorm on the 22nd. After this week on my way to my first 10" rain December. It really has a chance no joke 5" will be on the books.
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Mild last third of December is gaining favor due to Pacific influence. Seems like as the years accumulate that segment of December has a 70% chance of being non wintry, shouldn't we start naming it the December thaw? Makes more sense than January.
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0z ECM flips the long range cold signal off again, madness
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Forecast low of 28F rising to 32F by 5am It's down to 22F
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So the pack it in it's going to be a mild start to the holiday week the ECM has been showing now spits out near record cold. What is wrong with guidance these days these flips are gargantuan?
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Get that on a good model and within three days we be in bizzness
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1.5" 3" for December Some time in February to reach that total last year
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Heavy snow 33F
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Heavy snow lol 33F
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Seeing reports the change to snow has occurred rather quickly
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Few things in my younger years brought more fury then checking the snow lamp and seeing nothing but lil meteor streaks, in other words the change to rain had occured
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The radar hallucinations have begun it's now winter
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0z ECM backed down to 1-2" as other models ramped up a bit
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Forecast low was 38F and everything is frosty
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12z ECM 2.5-4.5" snow for this region. Another difficult forecast with an ana-front type system these are #2 on the complex scale behind miller B's.
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You want to see dead the upstate forum is like life after people...
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GFS long range is nothing but a random fantasy, euro is too but at least it's a slightly better one
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It's all about the analogs, past winter patterns with the predicted AO/NAO/ EPO/ PNA /background ENSO, MJO cycle and even solar state. Climate change plays havoc with analogs.
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A mild December is already in trouble. I am going to switch to the Old Farmers Almanac for guidance.
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You have three main choices for a winter forecast below, normal or above and he has two of them covered. 2/3 chance of nailing it
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Last burst and 1.5" SN Met original expectations
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1.1" SN Six weeks of winter last year to get that off to a rocket start
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.75" The almighty struggle to make 1" continues
