Hurricane Agnes

WWA's issued - Hit a high of 45 today after a low of 25. Currently 43 and overcast but clearing to the west, with dp 39.

Mt. Holly's call from earlier this morning - Am currently overcast and 34, with dp 32, so whatever was frozen is slowly melting (although those coldest surfaces were pretty cold, but the precip was light). People were scraping the car windows this morning. I saw the alert that the Passyunk Ave. bridge was closed due to icy conditions/accidents.

Have had on and off ZL but it also looks like there may have been some IP at some point earlier (hard to tell on my car since it's white but other cars that are dark-colored appear to almost have a light coating of snow or IP on the roof and hood). Temp is currently 31 with dp 27 so it will be close to melt point soon.

I just found this that illustrated the ENSO state of 2009 - from what would be "the strongest warming event for an El Nino in 30 years" (although it would result in a "moderate" El Nino) - I never thought a season/calendar year would ever break the 1996 winter in my lifetime but here we were. And then 2013/2014 did it again (although not as much as 2009/2010 but still more than 1996). Of course this is the 2nd season in a row with a La Nina so the same sort of dynamics technically shouldn't apply and it is expected to start to fade to neutral this spring and possibly evolve back to an El Nino during the summer.

Mt. Holly's thoughts just tweeted for tomorrow morning (sounds dicey) and Thursday/Friday -

Well a bunch of WWAs just got lofted - Temp here currently 33 with dp 21 after a high of 35.

I was trying to see if there may have been some initial mixing and then a backend thump. The sheer quantity of the first one for some locations was significant nonetheless and unless you had a rapid warmup and near flooding rain (like what happened in 1996 and even that didn't take it all away), then there would have been snowpack still there for the next storm. There is a cool site that had some snow maps of those 2 events (and some other area HECS/SECS over the years) - https://www.weathernj.com/major-new-jersey-snow-storms/

Probably in 2009/2010 - the banner season where I measured something like 70" IMBY (and almost 58" for the 2010 calendar year alone). And snow on snow for South Jersey/Delaware would have happened with a 2/5 - 2/6/10 storm followed a few days later by a 2/9 - 2/10/10 storm (with Delaware's totals coming in worse in some cases, than Jersey with the 2nd storm) - Winter Storm Feb 5-6, 2010 https://www.weather.gov/phi/02052010 Winter Storm Snowfall Totals Feb 9-10, 2010 https://www.weather.gov/phi/20102010 That first hit left 15" - 24" at the shore and wouldn't have disappeared 3 days later before the next round came in with an additional range of 3" - 12" (depending on location).

So far it looks like my low this morning was 19 (coldest of the season and year so far) and am currently at 20 with dp 12. Am getting a deck of cirrus drifting in but otherwise the sun is in and out. Mt. Holly tweeted out their preliminary snow reports last night - Also had their 11:36 pm list after the above (KPHL finished up with 1") -

Everybody cherry-picked around the GFS & ICON (but then these are all 18Z and will have to see what the 0Zs do). Temp down to 27 here with dp 14.

Finished up with a trace! Temp is down to 28 with dp 14 and I know it may have still going on in some places after the report, but here was the PNS as of 4pm and you can see who really cashed in within the CWA (KPHL managed 0.5") -

Concern might be for sleet (and we sure as hell had a lot of that last year). Still have some time...

That's why I put up that fantasy GFS 1/16 storm. As shown, it looks "juicy" and if there's enough cold air from the north (and the temps stay below or near normal the next 10 days vs above normal), it could sortof bomb out and provide some evaporative cooling back to the west.

I would agree if it were a PD storm but for early January, after near record-breaking antecedent temps? It's a bit marginal.

Yeah - this MLK Day specia!

If that position of the low verified as shown, it would be a bit close to the coast and could cause mixing issues.

The mood flakes that appeared here earlier evaporated with the 18 dp and temp at 31. Even the radar wiped the virga clean. Cloud deck is trying to brighten to the west.

Now getting some hard-to-see mood flakes but they are there. temp 31 with dp 22. Heavier returns are slowing pushing northward. Spotter in Dunkirk, MD reporting 10".

Dp has dropped to 21 here with temp 31. Still virga at the moment. Looks like southern MD & eastern VA has reports of 6" - 7" already. Spotter in Absecon reporting 4.5" and someone at Somers Point reporting 5.5".

WPC's approx. (sat) position about 40 minutes ago, of the low that will go coastal soon - Temp holding at 31 IMBY with dp 23 so some dry air...

Pancake flakes and nice breakers going on down there (plus it's a New Moon so some generally higher tides).

Well the soon-to-be-coastal hasn't "coastaled" itself yet but once the low gets out there, there could be some wrap-around bands that pivot up here. Currently holding more at 31 now with dp 24.

Virga has evaporated here and it is overcast with temp bopping between 31 and 32 with dp 25. Far south Jersey and coastal DE looks to be getting rocked. The Carolina low is inching towards the coast but doesn't seem to be moving that fast.

LOL @ Mt. Holly effusive AFD - Latest from Mt. Holly on forecast - It is a pretty presentation. Still have virga and temp is now down to 32 with dp 25.