Hurricane Agnes

Here's some eye candy from NCEP's CFS model.

0z Euro seems to have gone way west (the 6z not in range from how they do their runs).

Ended up hitting 40 for a high yesterday and bottomed out at 26 this morning. Currently partly cloudy and 31 with dp 25.

I'll throw the Ukie in -

Oh man.... I was literally just mumbling that to myself about 5 minutes ago. "Power outage storm". I got one of my sisters a set of 4 portable LED lanterns for Christmas to put around her house because where she lives in Montco, the power lines for her side of the street are strung along a row/stand of woods with a creek in the middle at the other end of the backyard, and the breaking branches take down portions of the lines and/or the transformers, over and over with storms (even with PECO continually pruning around the lines).

The runs have really been showing an amped up storm for sure. We are not in NAM range for it yet but it will be interesting to see what that does with it.

Well you have to look at the ENSO states too because the jetstream(s) is(are) what move these systems and the past fall and early winter, the systems have continued to move fairly rapidly (no blocks). You see front after front just rolling through. If any of those systems get cut off and stall, that is when you get walloped. The GFS had that hoochie mama days ago, lost her, and is crying in his beer!

CMC isn't as far west as the GFS but has the same near-Apps runner concept. Euro appears to be showing the same although looks further east than the others. Could be still seeing mid-range noise. I don't think this will settle down until we get a little closer.

Pittsburgh special!

I wouldn't even trust the 18z (at least the for Jan. 17 storm that has continually popped up on all the models) but start paying attention to the Friday runs. I have seen too many mid-range schizophrenic solutions. Temp here has shot up to 38 with dp 23. Still have some patches of snow here and there. Some clouds have also appeared, so it is partly sunny.

What often happens here is that if there is a real legitimate threat, this place gets crazy busy and the model maps from all kinds of sources will get posted continually. Otherwise the "dud" runs get tucked away and you can hear a pin drop. Just looking at the 6z GFS verbatim, it shows a very active pattern of all kinds of little storms rolling across the U.S. that either go over us or north/south of us. A couple are clippers and there looks like what is something rolling along the southern jetstream that goes out to sea at the same time as one of those clipper passes near us. The last one on the far end of the GFS range looks almost like a summer time thing with a low that forms off the coast of the Carolinas and becomes some kind of nor'easter way east of here. So taking a crack at it with the below clips taken from the 6z GFS what I "see" - 1 - Great lakes thingy jumps to the coast and out to sea (~Jan 13/14) 2 - The storm we had been focusing on for the Jan 17 time frame since its appearance in the long range... but it has now shifted to possibly end up as an inland runner or coastal hugger (at least on the last couple GFS runs) <-- whatever it does, it looks solid as some kind of event with precipitation but not sure what type 3 - Alberta clipper #1 (~Jan 20) 4 - Alberta clipper #2 + some southern jetstream system staying south parallel with the clipper (not phased) (~Jan 23 - 25) 5 - Some storm that forms off the Carolinas and goes out to sea (~Jan 26)

Bottomed out at 18 this morning and some time after 4:30, temp and dp were creeping up and currently at 21 with dp 12.

Ended up with a high of 24 today, but that came at MIDNIGHT, so definitely had some CAA that oozed in! My "daytime" high was around 22. Currently 19 and clear, the winds have died down a lot and are closing in on calm, and have a dp that has finally moved up to 5.

ICON is too (ETA although doing a hoochie dance by NJ).

Thank you - I was living in a high-rise apartment at the time and didn't have garage access then for my car, so it was out in the lot. I was just happy to have parked in the perfect spot in the lot (on the SW side of the building), where the building blocked most of the snow from drifting along that side. And since it was so powdery (I remember in this area, the temps were in the low 20s through the 2-day duration of the event), probably 95% of it had blown right off my car, and I only had some powder on the front bumper that I brushed off in a few minutes. People parked on the other side had their cars buried. It was all over by my birthday (sunny and cold like today), when I finally emerged to do the "french toast run" (milk, bread, eggs) that I laughed off about doing before the storm. Luckily I was a couple blocks from the supermarket and rolled my portable shopping cart down the middle of the street, with 6 foot banks of snow on each side, having to navigate around a car that was abandoned and buried right where it stalled out on the street after the driver was unable to get it out. Thank you!!! I read the thread where he trolled Paul and Paul was being generous in time and patience researching the data to address what devolved into OTT nonsense being spewed about some of the old snow reports by a long-time spotter in Chester County. At that point, the trollery had already escalated into complete idiocy.

Well my my dp "untorched" and it is down to a -0.4 (tenths of an increment - edit, now down to a -0.6). But the temp finally made it "up to" 20 with full sun and all blue skies.

Looks like I *might have* bottomed out at 16 this morning about 15 minutes after sunrise but I am still hanging around the upper teens and am currently at 17. However the dp is now "torching" and has "shot up to" 3F.

GFS is hoochie mama's sugar daddy for sure. Still honking on that. As of 4:30 this morning, I was down to 18 with a dp of 0. It sucked the water out of my humidifiers overnight real quick so had to get them refilled again when I got up this morning.

Thanks Paul! Glad to be back on the "green end" of a decade vs the "red end" of one.

Well now that was your mistake right there. I bottomed out at 27 this morning, and it's currently partly cloudy, bopping between 29/30, with a dp of 14, and sporting an active breeze. Also registered 0.30" in the bucket yesterday although I know some was probably a bit of snow melt.

Temps and dps have slowly dropped overnight and I finally went below 32 not along after 4 am. Ended up with a final high of 40 after 8:15 last night). About 95% of the snowpack is gone save for a few patches here and there (particularly in the north-facing areas) and from some depleted mounds of plowed snow. Currently clear and 31 with dp down to 16.

Thank you - I have read your historical background posts and appreciated your check-ins. And yeah, just getting started with the creaks.

When you are sledding on an ice-rutted street with potholes, the rails are the best way to do it because they won't get shredded like a tube. Tubes would be good on steep grassy slopes that are packed with snow or are useful going down piles of steps (they do that down at the Art Museum on those front entrance "Rocky steps"). Still there's nothing like an old-fashioned wooden sled with a rope to hang onto and (try to) steer the thing with.

Ahh yes... And those times were very rare. We were a couple doors down from a lightly trafficked residential 1-way intersecting street that was on a hill and was perfect for the Radio Flyers when there were those rare times the street had a glacial ice base under some newly fallen snow. The only drawback was if there were huge plowed mounds at the bottom from the plow trucks that you slammed into if you didn't leap off in time.

I just looked out and my 4.5" is all but disintegrated except for some shoveled mounds and patches here and there in open grassy areas. Temp is STILL going up and I am now at 40 (low was at midnight @25). Still getting some light rain although the back edge of that is getting close.