Hurricane Agnes

State College WFO put up an Ice Storm Warning earlier this morning for portions of west central PA.

Now getting ZR. Temp bopping between 31/32.

12z HRRR continuing the trend of the higher precip to the west.

Getting a mix of sleet and snow. Not really getting anything sticking yet but I am guessing that this is chilling the ground and exposed surfaces. Temp at 32 with dp 20.

Was just about to post. Just came in after putting my Polar Shield thingy over my car windshield. Currently 32 with dp 17.

12z NAM a bit icier.

12z GFS keeping the heaviest precip to the west.

Okay. Some of those returns looked a little more "intense" (in quotes) so was wondering if any of it was making it to the ground. I know the dp down here IMBY is 17 (temp 32), so the air is fairly (although not excessively) dry.

12z NBM sticking with the NAM idea.

Haven't played with Bufkit in awhile but just for the heck of it (skew-t).. NAM-bufkit-skew-t-2022-02-24_9-48-43.mp4

Okay thanks! Was hoping one of you guys up there would chime in on the radar regarding whether that was just vaporware returns.

What is interesting is that they were capturing the little antecedent precip that is on the radar at the moment! Am curious if any of that is making it to the ground or is just virga.

This was the 6z (last full) HRRR -

6z EC a little drier in the east.

Latest from Mt. Holly -

6z Canadian weigh-in (more of the same).

6z NBM guidance.

6z GFS a bit drier...

0z EC and the beat goes on...

6z NAM still a slurpy.

Currently 32 with dp 20.

WWAs up around the metro area. Currently down to 32 here with dp 20.

0z GFS looks like a mix to rain for the southern tier (hope that trend holds in the future).

0z HRW FV3 (next gen GFS) icy... AND the hot off the press 0z GFS (still amped but not as excessive as previously).

I was looking out west at Pittsburgh's WFO forecast and they are talking about a heavy moisture plume there coming out of WV, and may need to have flood watches/advisories go up at some point once the storm begins. So the question will be whether that plume translates over to the east or gets shredded by the mountains, lessening the amounts. Until now, most of the models outside of the NAM, seemed to think mountains schmountains and shunts that moisture, unabated, all the way east. Meanwhile the NAM chose to assume a disrupted flow instead. However now that the 0z NAM is out, it seems to have caved to a more moisture laden set of systems and... We have seen many convective lines "dry up" and fizzle on the way east so will see if this overrunning precip idea continues or what.