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Hurricane Agnes

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Everything posted by Hurricane Agnes

  1. Hurricane Agnes
    WPC's note last evening on the upcoming event's impact - And this morning's update focusing on the more extreme outcomes in the south central U.S. along with the significant snow north.
  2. Hurricane Agnes
    Looks like each side remains in their corners. GFS/EC with some kind of precip through the storm and NAM doing the dryslotting (although the NAM has some kind of antecedent brushes with some precip before the main low comes into play). I think the message is that there will be some kind of overrunning event that will be impacted by whereever the freezing line sets up.
  3. Hurricane Agnes
    That signal has been pretty consistent for all the models today. It seemed to be more sleety up that way and then some kind of atmospheric warming that would change it to rain but the temps would be much colder up there too compared to down here in Philly metro, south and east, so the ZR issue.
  4. Hurricane Agnes
    Looks like the 0z NAM did a blend. Not completely caving but moving in that direction.
  5. Hurricane Agnes
    Mt. Holly afternoon update -
  6. Hurricane Agnes
    NAM still stands alone as the Euro holds tight.
  7. Hurricane Agnes
    While the 18z is running the RGEM holds its ground.
  8. Hurricane Agnes
    Hit 59 as a high today (so far as the temps have been up and down with the rain). The low was 38 and it's currently 56 with light rain, 0.16" in the bucket, and dp 55.
  9. Hurricane Agnes
    18z GFS still standing it's ground although dries up at the end.
  10. Hurricane Agnes
    18z NAM still dryslotting.
  11. Hurricane Agnes
    Here was Mt. Holly's take a few hours ago -
  12. Hurricane Agnes
    Was looking at the EC's temps for the period. It's gonna depend on where the warm sector ends up and who gets under it.
  13. Hurricane Agnes
    12z Euro looks real ugly.
  14. Hurricane Agnes
    The Ukie doesn't seem to distinguish so am guessing it would be something that could include sleet/IP, etc.
  15. Hurricane Agnes
    EC has started so will soon see which way it goes! The Ukie did throw some snow down this way.
  16. Hurricane Agnes
    LOL
  17. Hurricane Agnes
    NBM trying to keep it real with the ice and throws some snow up north (might be weighted more to the NAM solution).
  18. Hurricane Agnes
    Seems the NAM's "dry" forecast is standing alone. GFS & GEM are not having it (although the GEM sortof spares I95).
  19. Hurricane Agnes
    12z GFS even throws snow down into the I95 corridor!
  20. Hurricane Agnes
    12z GFS still holding with a juicy overrunning storm...
  21. Hurricane Agnes
    It's drier! anthonyweather beat me to the maps but can add the snow map and the overall 24hr qpf.
  22. Hurricane Agnes
    The 12z NAM keeps the same idea...
  23. Hurricane Agnes
    That's what I'm wondering too although some cold air is supposed to sink down over the area to chill things down (with some temp undulation as the storm moves in - at least looking at the below verbatum).
  24. Hurricane Agnes
    I would get the salt out... This seems almost like a weaker warmer version of the pre-VD storm (Feb. 12/13), with the snow pushed much further north.
  25. Hurricane Agnes
    6z GFS has ~1.5" qpf. What that qpf will consist of is the question! I also think what is going to drive this other than the CAD is that apparently there is a lifting warm front and depending on how fast and how far it lifts, that will determine what the precipitation type will be and where. From what I recall, some models may bias on moving the warm front north too fast (and that probably depends on the time of year too).
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