Volcanic Winter
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Everything posted by Volcanic Winter
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She’s a comin’! Currently 35 here and has been dropping pretty steadily
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Give me that cold white powder. My precious.
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Feel like a kid in a candy store reading this thread right now. Barely two weeks ago I was getting off a plane walking outside of EWR with serious swamp-ass into a torch. Now it’s basically January in November with a serious winter pattern potentially unfolding? Cracking open my first good winter beer tonight. … and I’m ready to look back longingly at this comment when things switch gears again and it’s 60-70 degrees instead.
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I got down to 28 in my cold little corner near the Pine Barrens. Warmed up to mid 30’s with the clouds overnight. All I’m asking for is a Dec holiday period where I’m not damn near in shorts. I don’t think that’s too much to ask. We’re due an interesting Dec, and this right now is a nice early start.
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NJ is 2.9 degrees above pre-industrial temps according to what I was looking at earlier. While we don’t live in Maine neither do we live in South Carolina, historically NJ was not a particularly warm state. It’s all relative of course but climate change has significantly altered what we perceive as normal, especially here. Even just reviewing the daily averages for this area will help to reveal how off the mark we’re getting. Average low for my area right now is 34 degrees, and the daily low temperatures seem to be one of the worst impacted by the overall warming. It’s hard to articulate without emotional rambling, but I just find it to be upsetting.
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This is understandable. I’m only asking for “normal” climo instead of 90% torch 10% slightly cool. Obviously there’s always variance and oscillation back and forth, but the pendulum is clearly getting stuck in one direction vs the other.
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Don’t hope for a torch in November / Dec, man. It’s fine to prefer the warmer weather, I totally get it. But the direction our climate is heading, it’ll be torching quite enough at all times of the year. Try to enjoy and appreciate seasonal cool to cold for what it is when we can get it, I wouldn’t be making this comment if it were still October. Preferences aside, it’s very clear how much easier it is to torch around here than to go BN so you’ll very likely get your wish at one point or another. Conversely I feel like I’m straight praying every year to see proper snow that sticks and lasts for more than 48 hours.
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Flying home from my trip to Iceland right now, solid 24-44 degrees the entire trip (went to the northern region for most of it). Literally returning to a November furnace. Walking out of EWR in this type of airmass after acclimating to those temps for two weeks and with all of our stuff? Yeah no thanks. Man I leave for two weeks and you guys torch the place down.
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Unbelievably I was .7F away from my first freeze at inland Toms River at the beginning of the month. Tempest recorded 32.7. Wondering if we’ll meet or exceed that, but I do notice a pattern since I got my Tempest last winter that we meet or exceed the forecasted lows in my location especially following cooldowns. Also, what’s the early thinking for November? I’m almost inclined to say let it torch if it means we’ll be in a better position for a good pattern DJF. Most of our Novembers the past few years have been cool, this year would be an interesting flip of October and November assuming the rest of October doesn’t overcome the BN anomaly.
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Sounds like Iceland this time of year. Wife and I headed there at the end of the month for our ten year anniversary!
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What would be the difference between having say just the NAO negative vs having both AO and NAO negative? I have a decent level of basic comprehension of this stuff, but I’m still learning certainly. When both are negative are we more likely to see a broader, deeper trough over the eastern seaboard? Easier to sustain? Better pipeline for Canadian Arctic air? What would the actual impact, let’s say, of having both negative vs one or the other. I know this varies, I’m just asking in terms of average forcing or pattern.
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Yeah, I really can’t complain given how far south I am overall. It’s still a pretty nice location that tends to do well in the larger ECS’s. I miss more of the small events especially with a north / south division of rain and snow. Was also frustratingly north of the big ACY storm last Jan, but we had a really good month overall and had 16” on 1/29. Can’t complain about that at all.
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I’m several miles north of it. Very close to western border of Manchester. I’ve found it’s a pretty good location for coastal storms because I’m far enough inland to generally avoid storms that mix right at the coast. Commute up to near EWR for work.
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My low for the weekend was 32.7 on the Tempest; incredible! Definitely live in a cold pocket of my area of TR (10+ miles inland from shore and backed up to forest, away from main roads).
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Yep, it’s beautiful and I’m excited for the further influx of cool, crisp air. My preferred hiking temperatures. Hopefully will make it up state this fall. Just remembering the major pattern resets between Nov - Dec - Jan - Feb between each month last year. Hoping this is the start of a more entrenched pattern than what we’ve seen lately, but the fact that it came so early is either a good omen for the winter or a bad one IMO (“wasting it” in October).
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I love looking at those, but damn there are so many color coded charts in meteorological data where the differentiation between colors is just a monumental challenge to decipher. I pretty much can’t tell the difference between 57F water and 67F water on that. Eh, it’s probably my eyes.
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Interestingly 1904 was just after the VEI 6 eruption of Santa Maria (definitely big enough for significant climate impacts) and 1958 was after Bezymianny’s VEI 5 (and several smaller events just preceding; just about big enough).
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Man, seeing the heights dive under NJ elicits a Pavlovian response in me. Over here salivating to see this set up in winter, but absolutely loving the cool start to October (and can appreciate the warmer days today and yesterday for those that want the warmth). I’d really love to see a flat to mildly BN DJF, if only to prove it can still happen for us. Read a couple recent climate papers that were rather depressing, would very much love an unexpectedly potent winter season as opposed to “cold shot, torch, cold shot, torch, torch, torch.” Probably asking too much and setting myself up for disappointment, but hope ain’t dead yet in me!
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At 5.89 inches total. Incredible.
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Love the data Bluewave, thank you as always.
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+6.9, +7.2… oof! Yeah I distinctly remember wearing shorts through most Octobers the past ten years, makes sense lol. I do hope we’re not wasting our shot at +PNA this season, but I’m fully expecting and interesting winter regardless. Hopefully it’s memorable for the right reasons!
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Is this still technically Ian, or did a new low develop offshore? It looked like Ian died inland and a new low developed from Its energy offshore. I don’t know this stuff as well as many of you but I’m curious. And I guess there’s a near absence of steering winds aloft to move this out and hence the stall / stationary movement?
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My tempest. Insane rain past couple days:
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Invest in a good hard shell. Rain never has to keep you indoors. I guess it takes a certain mindset, but I can enjoy being outside in the rain. It helps having the right clothing though.
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It just ain’t modern Christmas around these parts if we aren’t in shorts and flip flops.
