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Volcanic Winter

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  1. Volcanic Winter
    This is understandable. I’m only asking for “normal” climo instead of 90% torch 10% slightly cool. Obviously there’s always variance and oscillation back and forth, but the pendulum is clearly getting stuck in one direction vs the other.
  2. Volcanic Winter
    Don’t hope for a torch in November / Dec, man. It’s fine to prefer the warmer weather, I totally get it. But the direction our climate is heading, it’ll be torching quite enough at all times of the year. Try to enjoy and appreciate seasonal cool to cold for what it is when we can get it, I wouldn’t be making this comment if it were still October. Preferences aside, it’s very clear how much easier it is to torch around here than to go BN so you’ll very likely get your wish at one point or another. Conversely I feel like I’m straight praying every year to see proper snow that sticks and lasts for more than 48 hours.
  3. Volcanic Winter
    Flying home from my trip to Iceland right now, solid 24-44 degrees the entire trip (went to the northern region for most of it). Literally returning to a November furnace. Walking out of EWR in this type of airmass after acclimating to those temps for two weeks and with all of our stuff? Yeah no thanks. Man I leave for two weeks and you guys torch the place down.
  4. Volcanic Winter
    Unbelievably I was .7F away from my first freeze at inland Toms River at the beginning of the month. Tempest recorded 32.7. Wondering if we’ll meet or exceed that, but I do notice a pattern since I got my Tempest last winter that we meet or exceed the forecasted lows in my location especially following cooldowns. Also, what’s the early thinking for November? I’m almost inclined to say let it torch if it means we’ll be in a better position for a good pattern DJF. Most of our Novembers the past few years have been cool, this year would be an interesting flip of October and November assuming the rest of October doesn’t overcome the BN anomaly.
  5. Volcanic Winter
    Sounds like Iceland this time of year. Wife and I headed there at the end of the month for our ten year anniversary!
  6. Volcanic Winter
    What would be the difference between having say just the NAO negative vs having both AO and NAO negative? I have a decent level of basic comprehension of this stuff, but I’m still learning certainly. When both are negative are we more likely to see a broader, deeper trough over the eastern seaboard? Easier to sustain? Better pipeline for Canadian Arctic air? What would the actual impact, let’s say, of having both negative vs one or the other. I know this varies, I’m just asking in terms of average forcing or pattern.
  7. Volcanic Winter
    Yeah, I really can’t complain given how far south I am overall. It’s still a pretty nice location that tends to do well in the larger ECS’s. I miss more of the small events especially with a north / south division of rain and snow. Was also frustratingly north of the big ACY storm last Jan, but we had a really good month overall and had 16” on 1/29. Can’t complain about that at all.
  8. Volcanic Winter
    I’m several miles north of it. Very close to western border of Manchester. I’ve found it’s a pretty good location for coastal storms because I’m far enough inland to generally avoid storms that mix right at the coast. Commute up to near EWR for work.
  9. Volcanic Winter
    My low for the weekend was 32.7 on the Tempest; incredible! Definitely live in a cold pocket of my area of TR (10+ miles inland from shore and backed up to forest, away from main roads).
  10. Volcanic Winter
    Yep, it’s beautiful and I’m excited for the further influx of cool, crisp air. My preferred hiking temperatures. Hopefully will make it up state this fall. Just remembering the major pattern resets between Nov - Dec - Jan - Feb between each month last year. Hoping this is the start of a more entrenched pattern than what we’ve seen lately, but the fact that it came so early is either a good omen for the winter or a bad one IMO (“wasting it” in October).
  11. Volcanic Winter
    I love looking at those, but damn there are so many color coded charts in meteorological data where the differentiation between colors is just a monumental challenge to decipher. I pretty much can’t tell the difference between 57F water and 67F water on that. Eh, it’s probably my eyes.
  12. Volcanic Winter
    Interestingly 1904 was just after the VEI 6 eruption of Santa Maria (definitely big enough for significant climate impacts) and 1958 was after Bezymianny’s VEI 5 (and several smaller events just preceding; just about big enough).
  13. Volcanic Winter
    Man, seeing the heights dive under NJ elicits a Pavlovian response in me. Over here salivating to see this set up in winter, but absolutely loving the cool start to October (and can appreciate the warmer days today and yesterday for those that want the warmth). I’d really love to see a flat to mildly BN DJF, if only to prove it can still happen for us. Read a couple recent climate papers that were rather depressing, would very much love an unexpectedly potent winter season as opposed to “cold shot, torch, cold shot, torch, torch, torch.” Probably asking too much and setting myself up for disappointment, but hope ain’t dead yet in me!
  14. Volcanic Winter
    At 5.89 inches total. Incredible.
  15. Volcanic Winter
    Love the data Bluewave, thank you as always.
  16. Volcanic Winter
    +6.9, +7.2… oof! Yeah I distinctly remember wearing shorts through most Octobers the past ten years, makes sense lol. I do hope we’re not wasting our shot at +PNA this season, but I’m fully expecting and interesting winter regardless. Hopefully it’s memorable for the right reasons!
  17. Volcanic Winter
    Is this still technically Ian, or did a new low develop offshore? It looked like Ian died inland and a new low developed from Its energy offshore. I don’t know this stuff as well as many of you but I’m curious. And I guess there’s a near absence of steering winds aloft to move this out and hence the stall / stationary movement?
  18. Volcanic Winter
    My tempest. Insane rain past couple days:
  19. Volcanic Winter
    Invest in a good hard shell. Rain never has to keep you indoors. I guess it takes a certain mindset, but I can enjoy being outside in the rain. It helps having the right clothing though.
  20. Volcanic Winter
    It just ain’t modern Christmas around these parts if we aren’t in shorts and flip flops.
  21. Volcanic Winter
    Yeah, we’ve only had like two winters in the past decade I’ve lived in inland TR where snow seemed to fall regularly and not melt instantly. Of course it doesn’t happen often, but it can happen which is the main point. I think 2013 and 2014 were the winters I’m thinking of. Nothing feels more like a classic, beautiful winter than having persistent snow cover. Of course this is different for you guys north and west, but I’m near sea level and not too far from the coast so it’s a much bigger ask. Still, when it does happen, *chef’s kiss.* I also have vivid memories of 2009 where I lived in a house in Long Branch while going to school, and getting absolutely BURIED in a December storm. December blizzards feel impossible lately, you know? And then briefly lived in North Brunswick with my future wife through Dec 26 2010 and the subsequent massive storms that winter brought. Lot of these are backloaded in my memory, recently it seems we’ve more had isolated big events but little consistency. I know it’s unlikely and growing ever more difficult, but I’m so ready for a wall to wall classic winter.
  22. Volcanic Winter
    I know and use a lot of the common websites for models and stuff like NOAA for teleconnections and MJO, but what website can I use if I want to compare current temperatures to those of a year range I set? Like if I wanted to arbitrarily compare current BN temperatures to an aggregate for late September but from 1858-1940 let’s say, just for the sake of noting the difference between then and now. I think I’ve seen Bluewave post data like this and would greatly appreciate being pointed towards any sites I could use for this. I love exploring historical temp and weather data. Thanks guys. edit: I think I’ve seen one that’s a map of CONUS with temp anomalies shaded for a given year range relative to current. That would be super helpful, but also that lists this data numerically. Also any sites that show just plain historical temperature data for different sites, though would prefer one that goes back as far as modern record keeping (think 1850’s?). I also want to take a look at temperature data for years of known volcanic aerosol injections, there are a few more from lesser known mid range eruptions than just the major ones (Pinatubo, Krakatoa, etc). Sorry if I’m asking a few different things but I feel like one or two websites will probably knock this out for me. Thanks! edit 2: If anyone is curious, there were also large SO2 / volcanic aerosol injections in the years 1982 (El Chicón), 1963 (Gunung Agung), 1932-1933 (Cerro Azul and Kharimkotan, 1912 (Novarupta, a big one, and 1902 (Santa Maria, also a very large one). Going to take a look at the summer and winters of those years and the couple following them. Should be interesting if nothing else.
  23. Volcanic Winter
    How much does the pressure difference add to the power of the storm? So I gather that's what a "baroclinic zone" is? Hard for me to quantify just how large that effect would be in this situation for example. Does the NHC factor that into the wind rating for Ian, or is it just sort of an additional influence that adds some additional power to the perceived surface winds? Thanks to anyone, trying to wrap my head around this though I understand how a pressure gradient generates wind.
  24. Volcanic Winter
    Blocking the rain, of course.
  25. Volcanic Winter
    Hope the rain falls for those who need it! Loving the cool air, finally. Between Fiona and now 98L boy has ATL hurricane season ‘22 quickly resurrected itself. Potential Charley like track in there amongst the model noise? Long way off, interesting either way. Could be a bad one for the Gulf on a different track.
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