WxSynopsisDavid

It’s plausible but this hinges on Idalia taking full advantage of the pristine environment ahead. This would indicate lack of shear upon landfall and minimal hindrance from the trough. Lastly, it would suggest Idalia does not have any eyewall replacement cycles before landfall which is plausible if forward speed increases.

But how much storm surge in my back yard will there be?

Indeed, finally seeing a consistent burst of deep convection and it appears that deep convection is wrapping the core now. Marketable improvements upshear, I suspect what is happening now is that column is trying to get vertical which should happen very soon, once it clears Cuba. IMO...the environment ahead is the best environment an Atlantic tropical system has had since Michael. All systems are go, once it clears Cuba, for RI. Some indication I seen in previous runs of the COAMPS that suggests a potential period of explosive intensification once it gets over the loop current tomorrow afternoon.

Once it clears Cuba that should happen, but it's definitely lopsided and that column is not quite vertical yet.

Correction....Category 6.5 to the 3rd power

Your comment earlier about Idalia looking like trash garbage inspired greatness.

Done, just created it.

Banter for Idalia

As I mentioned earlier, until we get a solid core and eye with Idalia models will continue to fluctuate with track and intensity.

Honestly, until Idalia develops a solid core (which will take several more hours), model track and intensity will continue to fluctuate.

Negative. The cloud tops are casting a shadow that is given the appearance of an eye. No eye is developing yet, according to recon.

Shear has actually rapidly decreased the last 3 hours. Shear values north of Idalia went from 40kts to 25kts now. Dry air has abated the core and there’s little dry air to the north. This is a similar environment that Michael had in all honesty. One could argue a better environment ahead than what Michael had.

No one has forgotten but there are still uncertainties on track and intensity. Unfortunately we won’t really know for sure what those impacts will be until Tuesday.

I’ll take that bet and say 12hrs tops. So far what Idalia was able to pull off with 30kts of shear was impressive. Also….Idalia is now beginning to interact with a noticeable warm eddy so I think because of this the process happens much sooner.

Once that vertical column stacks, it’s game on. We are close now to that happening.

Night man, thanks for the analysis and breakdown of recon data.

989mb

My suspicion is that there is some sort of internal process happening. Next 3-6hrs will be interesting.

Someone with more experience can correct me if my assumption is wrong, but if the vertical column stacks within the next 6-8hrs i believe the worse case scenario will unfold. Really hinges on how Idalia organizes/develops the core and if it continues to abate the shear and dry air

Not good, this falls in line with the hurricane models that have been on the higher-end of the intensity forecast.

Right at the end of the loop, you can see that the lightning activity starts to ramp up and circles around the core, noticeable ring like feature. I have only seen that with systems that are beginning an RI process or systems that have an RI underway.

I agree, this is likely the beginning of an established inner core being developed. Very impressive to see this right now.

Really don't want this thing to take it's time moving ashore in those warm SST's. Not a great trend to have in this juncture. However...only real silver lining with a slower speed is it will increase the likelihood of an internal process such as an Eyewall Replacement Cycle being induced. Current forecast, showing Idalia moving ashore at a faster speed, does not support internal processes happening.