TheClimateChanger

Not to change the subject from the potential severe weather, but a quick climate glance for the first quarter of 2024 [through 3/31].

The average mean temperature for the first 1/4 of the year has been 39.7F, placing it in 5th place in the threaded record. Note, however, that 1890 [0.3F warmer] has 12 missing days, so it very well might be lower than this year if not for the missing data. Second warmest start to the year at the airport behind 2012. Last year had the 8th warmest first three months, now dropped back to 9th place in the threaded record.

Up to a sultry T/Td of 69/64 at Washington County Airport, as of the top of the hour. Could see 70s this afternoon.

2 hours ago, JetsPens87 said:

2 things here...

 

First is an absolute LOL at him still refusing to give up on BN temps

Second is...where is that for and how is March 2012 not first?

Also, not sure about "edged" out 2016. His favorite data source had this March a full 0.3C ahead of 2016: nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0/tlt/uahncdc_lt_6.0.txt

1 hour ago, TimB said:

This is now the wettest April day ever observed at Pittsburgh international, with 1.62” and counting observed since 1am. The official all time record for any April day is 2.34” on 4/14/1922. We’re up to 6th on the all time list.

Wow, pretty crazy. April 1901 still takes the cake though.

2.05 inches of precipitation, and 12.7 inches of snow on April 3, 1901.

Later in the month, 1.53" of rain on the 19th and an additional 2.24" on the 20th.

What a heartbreaker that must have been though for southwestern Pennsylvania, as parts of eastern Ohio saw up to 3 1/2 feet of snow. At least, the nearly 13" of snow earlier in the month would have provided some consolation.

Warren, Ohio

Gratiot, Ohio

Wow. Not sure I've ever seen it this high for our region.

3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Did Coyotes Joe's stay open for the 101 temp?

No idea what that is. But that heat was insane either way. It never even reached 99F or above there in the scorching summer of 1988. Altoona set an all-time high of 103F or 104F on that date too.

3 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

Hershey.  Sometimes heat closes down some rides. 

https://www.abc27.com/hershey/hersheypark-rain-policy-weather/

 

I can believe it. I was at Cedar Point on July 21, 2011. It was 102F at Toledo Express Airport and 105F at Toledo Executive Airport that day. Absolutely brutal.

The next day reached 101F at DuBois - the first and only time [dating to 1963] that it has exceeded 98F there.

Let's hope this is wrong.

Also, on the topic of snowfall. Currently sixth lowest seasonal total [since 1880-1881]. Last year's total was eighth least but may drop to ninth (as shown below) if there is no additional significant snowfall this year.

Limiting to snowfall records taken at one of the two airport sites (1935-1936 to present), makes it even worse.

There had only been 3 years with less than 20" at either airport site (1937-1938, 1973-1974, and 1990-1991) and we are currently in danger of a second straight year with less than 20 inches. I blame @Burghblizz. He had noted we haven't had to deal with any 20" or less seasons shortly before the March 2018 storm were a lot of people were complaining about the lack of snowfall in recent winters. Of course, 2017-2018 had a crazy ending with 10.5" from the big storm and another 7.3" over the first few weeks of April. Now we've had two straight [likely], and just barely exceeded that total in 2019-2020.

When will be our first below normal month? Any guesses?

11 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Number of days with 1"+ snow cover at MFD [dating to early 1950s]:

Similar story at CAK:

Just now, TheClimateChanger said:

It's high time the NWS amend the description of climate in Mansfield, Ohio. There is not near continuous snow cover from December through March anymore. That would be considered absurd today. There's barely been 20 inches the last two winters combined. And 3 of the top 10 least snowy winters are in the last 5 years.

I really believe Ohio is ground zero for climate change. Feels like it's warming faster in this region than anywhere on the planet.

Number of days with 1"+ snow cover at MFD [dating to early 1950s]:

It's high time the NWS amends the description of climate in Mansfield, Ohio. There is not near continuous snow cover from December through March anymore. And daytime temperatures regularly exceed freezing in the winter. That would be considered absurd today. There's barely been 20 inches the last two winters combined. And 3 of the top 10 least snowy winters are in the last 5 years.

I really believe Ohio is ground zero for climate change. Feels like it's warming faster in this region than anywhere on the planet.

Canton-Akron (CAK)

Official records, since 1948:

Manually expanded dataset back to 1893, including snowfall records from other sites in the threaded record that aren't included in the official record for some reason:

Mansfield, OH (MFD) - extended back to 1892-1893, excluding several years with no or significant missing data

Some other snowfall futility notes.  Currently, fourth least on record at Erie, PA. Note these values have been manually corrected by me. xMacis and the NWS CLE site [which uses the xMacis] has a bunch of random missing data mainly from the 1920s-1940s, where snowfall actually was observed.

Looking at these values, it will be the first season with less than 40" since 1952-1953, and the first season with less than 30" since 1932-1933 [barring some late season magic]. In recent decades, the low to mid 40-inch range was the absolute minima at Erie Airport.

In fact, if we narrow the search to the most recent 71 winters [dating back to 1953-1954] at the airport site, it's UGLY. The least amount of snow observed in the 70 years from 1953-1954 to 2022-2023 was 41.2 inches in 1982-83. Last year's 52.0 inches was sixth least in that stretch. This winter is at 24.8 inches. Wow.

Here's Lansing, Michigan snowfall records [earlier years at East Lansing, Michigan], excluding a few years with excessive missing data:

Maybe a bit questionable that the very first year with data ranks as lowest. Looking at the monthly data, that looks mostly a function of the fact that precipitation was 25-50 percent of modern norms for the bulk of the cold season.

50 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Toledo snowfall records began in 1885. They were always included until nws Cleveland randomly revamped their website and it now starts in 1890. There was no missing data, so the 6.0" figure is absolutely believable.

And actually, Toledo Express airport is a little bit over an hour drive from Detroit Metro airport, although I have absolutely no idea what Detroit has to do with Toledo. Especially as I have said many times the state-line snow cutoff the last 2 winters has been insane. 

Not sure why we are using DTW as a drive time base, but Detroit Metro Airport (23.5") is a 65 minute drive to Toledo Express (9.6") airport but only a 25 minute drive to U of M Ann Arbor, where 36.9" has fallen this year.

I said from Toledo to DTW airport. All of the records prior to the mid 1950s are from the city proper. Of course, it's a bit longer drive out to the airport. The snowfall records were retrieved from xMacis, which has nothing prior to 1890-91.

Interesting long-term data from Lake Mendota in Wisconsin.

Same story in Toledo, less than an hour drive from DTW airport.

Of course, @michsnowfreaklikes to point out a 6.0" observation from the winter of 1889-1890, but I'm guessing that lacks daily resolution as it is not part of the threaded record, which begins in 1890-1891.

12 hours ago, mississaugasnow said:

Toronto had nearly 2 sub 20" winters in 3 years back in 2009-10 (20.6") and 11-12 (16"). 2011-12 will probably be very difficult to ever get lower for Toronto as 16" is insanely low. 

Those stats might also be why I'm more prone to start discussing futility records since Toronto has been racking up a few recently (Last 20 years)

Same in Ohio. Just look at Cleveland the last two years. There hasn't been an above normal season since 2014-2015, and that was actually slightly below the normal in effect at the time [normal snowfall dropped several inches with the 1991-2020 update]. 2013-2014 was the last time a season came in above the existing normals.

Note all of the low snow years were from the city office data. The heaviest snow occurs south and especially east of the city (see below), so we can conclude snowfall would have been heavier at the airport location. Of course, snowfall measurement procedure has also changed over that time frame.

Of note, Alfred Hyde was a long time cooperative observer for the Smithsonian Institution who kept temperature, precipitation and snowfall records back to 1854-1855. His lowest snowfall winter was 1865-66 with 21.6 inches. Looking at this, we can conclude only one year on record had substantially less snow than last winter dating all the way back to the mid 19th century: 1918-1919. The other two years with less (1931-1932, 1865-1866) were minor differences (1.2 inches, and 0.1 inches, respectively). Also of note, prior to last winter, there had never been less than 30 inches observed in a season since records moved to the airport [around 1940, give or take a year]. The last time less than 30 inches was observed was 1932-1933. There is a good chance that metric is about to be exceeded for the second consecutive winter, barring some late season action.

2 hours ago, Lava Rock said:

Over what time period? I'm just going back to 2009 when we moved back to maine

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Seems unlikely that he's had ten years under 24 inches. The official records at Portland, which date to 1881, show the lowest annual total at 27.5 inches.

28 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Boston has never had two consecutive seasons with less than 20" of snow. The lowest two season average was 17.4" (1979-80 and 1980-81).

Interesting. I just checked Pittsburgh, which is still on track for two consecutive seasons of 20” or less. Looks like it’s only happened once dating back to 1879, but it was three seasons in a row (1930-31, 1931-32, and 1932-33). Of course, that was when observations were still downtown at the city office, which is about 400’ lower in elevation and averaged about a foot less than at the airport (although some of that is probably attributable to changes in observation procedure). Prior to last year, there had only been three years since then with less than 20” (1937-38, 1973-74 & 1990-91).