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Jet Stream Rider

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  1. Jet Stream Rider
    This site is pretty good. https://climate.ncsu.edu/
  2. Jet Stream Rider
    Ended up with about 3 here. Looks like jackpot with this system was well south of here. We never got the frontogenesis across large areas of the state that the models showed, slp was weaker and further east and south. The shear from the st jet that gave us all the over-running early, hampered the coastal development I think. Nice marginal event though. One of the best snows for looking great in the trees in a while! Thanks for all the diligent tracking folks! Trees from the front yard:
  3. Jet Stream Rider
    Had occasion to drive across town just now. Some accumulation on the roads now. Snowing light to moderate at 32.
  4. Jet Stream Rider
    Big flakes in light to moderate snow. dusting on vegetative surfaces. Down to 32.
  5. Jet Stream Rider
    Moderate snow now, 35. No accumulation
  6. Jet Stream Rider
    Mixed precip rn, ip, sn started here 20min ago in northeastern NC.
  7. Jet Stream Rider
    In the eyewall wow!
  8. Jet Stream Rider
    There are at least two parts to it. The first part is the original west coast energy that spawned our slp (now off the NC coast), and that is being sheared as it traverses the mountains. The second part is dropping down the backside of the trough and the 2 will begin to interact.
  9. Jet Stream Rider
    HRRR 9z-15z Monday depiction - Thats tomorrow morning
  10. Jet Stream Rider
    HRRR did better with placement of transition zone and timing for my area.
  11. Jet Stream Rider
    Are you familiar with film maker Werner Herzog?
  12. Jet Stream Rider
    Noticed some models reacting to the original upper level energy crossing NC tomorrow as the late diving ull from Canada rounds the bend to our south. Some localized area blobs of hot pink color maxing the snow range on the legend.
  13. Jet Stream Rider
    Also; even with a well placed CAD with very cold air, it will hug the surface and the warm nose will flow right over it resulting in copious sleet or freezing rain. So yeah, the warm nose always wins if it is there at all.
  14. Jet Stream Rider
    Its a good question. My general thinking is that this situation is maybe not a great example of well placed CAD just because the air mass is marginal in its coldness. Also, warm noses are more pronounced with a vigorous slp that is sub 1K and is riding up the coastline. In that case you have strong east or southeast winds that bring an intense warm air temperature advection from the coastal flow. In this case with the slp being rather weak and having a more suppressed track with a more easterly trajectory, the warm nose is less pronounced and is more associated with the slp air mass itself rather than bringing in a massive amount of coastal air. My thinking, Mets or others please feel free to correct this.
  15. Jet Stream Rider
    This morning the NWS moved my county (Halifax) into the WSW area. I'm right on the edge of the piedmont, nothing but coastal plain to my east, so of course I expect a mix with sleet and rain. that initial hit though looks substantial. We have our slp just west of New Orleans this morning, here we go! Good luck everyone!
  16. Jet Stream Rider
    Free sites like Tropical Tidbits, Weathernerds, or Pivotalweather have only the free ECMWF products, other services like precip panels are pay only.
  17. Jet Stream Rider
    Basically every model every run, this thing comes in like a hammer. Radar looks it too.
  18. Jet Stream Rider
    Not sure. Can't see the Euro precip maps
  19. Jet Stream Rider
    0z Euro looks really accelerated
  20. Jet Stream Rider
    Euro at 48, the slp already south of Cape Lookout
  21. Jet Stream Rider
    Upper level feature still back in the vicinity of southern New Mexico. Wow. The system is really stretched out.
  22. Jet Stream Rider
    That trough means business. Thats a 1015 surface low pressure south of Houston now. About 6 hrs or so ahead of schedule I think.
  23. Jet Stream Rider
    You can see the low pressure forming in the western gulf current analysis; Surface frontogensis. Models show a slp in that area by 10z-12z.
  24. Jet Stream Rider
    I'm thinking that for many of us that the threat of zr will be minimized by the marginally cold air mass. ZR accrues more quickly when there is a very cold and dry layer at ground level, this air mass does not have that level of cold, so accrual should be less severe.
  25. Jet Stream Rider
    The RGEM will probably jump back east pretty quick, the slp moves around frame to frame in that rather large area of low pressure as the system organizes.
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