Jump to content

Jet Stream Rider

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    1,085

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Jet Stream Rider

  1. Jet Stream Rider
    Sure has and a good point. Note though there is no GoM or CAD in effect for that region like there will be in our area.
  2. Jet Stream Rider
    Delayed onset for Raleigh north and east. Happy for the SC upstate folks though, looks like early onset and quite a pasting.
  3. Jet Stream Rider
    Impressive amount of moisture coming in off the Pacific into the southwest and feeding into our system as it begins to get organized. Once the vortex moves east and begins to tap the GoM, it looks to be substantial. The early finger is further east and south than I anticipated this morning. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=continental-conus-14-48-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined
  4. Jet Stream Rider
    Yes^ Thanks Grit. The Euro at 96 looks weird, just drops the low back south and east and the temps, why is there no 850 crash across the Carolinas as the low departs ots? Edit - it may just be the 24 hour intervals throwing me off.
  5. Jet Stream Rider
    1005 south of Hatteras. In the areas that stay frozen that would be a good bit of snow and sleet already down.
  6. Jet Stream Rider
    It is a bit early, but later in the run the low gets far enough north and just off the southern NC coast that the warm nose turns everything in the coastal plain and the eastern Piedmont to cold rain.
  7. Jet Stream Rider
    Preferably the low would be a little more suppressed, but still a very nice and rather rare setup
  8. Jet Stream Rider
    I think it could. My thinking is that once it is located in the gulf at a specific time, the models can adjust, and its a milestone in the evolution of the system. Looking at the energy now on the coast of southern California, it just looks so slow. Of course the surface low will form out front of it, and we need that surface low in the gulf or at least along the shoreline. For the forum members that want to see snow, we need it to stay suppressed. And I want to see if it is early or late to that point, and that will effect things down stream.
  9. Jet Stream Rider
    I want to see where and when the slp becomes established in the gulf as a marker and see what the models say then. That is supposed to happen around 12z Saturday. Right now the energy coming on shore in socal is so slow, I'm a little concerned it will go up the backside of the suppression.
  10. Jet Stream Rider
    That cold HP push looks stout to me, and it is a large scale feature. I think the wedge will be there for at least a good portion of the favored areas, and far out east as well. Then it will just depend on how far north the slp and ull go.
  11. Jet Stream Rider
    The NAM used to be biased heavy on qpf, but was adjusted and now maybe is biased a bit light, is that correct? I do think the level of that initial hit will be important, both the over running which may serve to only moisten the column, and the actual precip from the slp. Then we have the backside ull to deal with. Looks like a broken period of precip over 2 days rather than a continuous period of precip.
  12. Jet Stream Rider
    Looking at the real time movement of air masses, there is a big push south by the arctic air mass with accompanied upper level energy and you can see why this system is modeled to be suppressed. However the slp has yet to form in the gulf and we know it will want to press north with waa. Its unclear how this will resolve. Interesting to see how well the models do with it. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=global-northernhemi-10-48-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined
  13. Jet Stream Rider
    Our wave just now slowly crawling onshore southern California. The event could be 2 or 3 more-or-less separate periods of precip from Sunday - Tuesday as we get overrunning out ahead of this wave and the slp that will develop ahead of it as well. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=atlpac-wide&product=wv-mid
  14. Jet Stream Rider
    Its a good point Brick. However; remember that the models are forecast *guidance* and not an absolute representation of reality. And we have seen them be very wrong many times, as recently as last year. I hope we both get a foot though! Cheers.
  15. Jet Stream Rider
    If the surface low turns up the coast like most of them do, then yes there will be a warm nose well inland. If the slp is a slider, mainly moving east like has been modeled now for many days and the CAD is established, then there will likely be no substantial warm nose.
  16. Jet Stream Rider
    NAM dewpoints shows the wedge out to 84
  17. Jet Stream Rider
    My goodness, after having problems completing its runs the past few days, the FV3 must have blown a gasket!
  18. Jet Stream Rider
    Pouring graupel just now, even with the sun out! Started accumulating in spots a bit.
  19. Jet Stream Rider
    The global models may not be accounting for the CAD properly still. It can extend out to the coastal plain if the slp is indeed a slider and does not come up the coast.
  20. Jet Stream Rider
    Does anyone have insight as to why the FV3 has had problems loading the last couple of days? Bothersome when its supposed to go operational any day now, right?
  21. Jet Stream Rider
    Since the NAM is pretty good at modeling the CAD wedge here is a an animation showing the CAD becoming established via dewpoint on Saturday.
  22. Jet Stream Rider
    I agree with the cautionary statements at this lead. It is encouraging though to see the basic setup of strong-ish and cold high pressure suppressing a southern slider of a surface low pressure. And its certainly fun to track these potentials with all our fancy and evolving digital modeling. Obviously it should be no surprise if most of us end up with cold rain, but there is at this point still a chance for some frozen precip types. We will see. Enjoy the ride. At least we are out of hurricane season for now! Cheers everyone for another winter season.
  23. Jet Stream Rider
    Power just came back. It went off again just after I made the post last night when I was in that western eye wall remnant enhanced by the frontal push and it had flickered and gone off briefly. This time it stayed off for 13 hours. But no tree on the house. And I'm grateful. I know so many have been hit so much harder. I hope everyone gets the resources they need to make it through. Eye went right over me here in Roanoke Rapids. Dead calm in the eye, no rain or sound save for the frogs and water dripping from every tree and overhang. Michael, one for the record book and a lifelong memory.
  24. Jet Stream Rider
    I was in the eye for quite a while. Pressure bottomed out at 29.10 on the old Springfield unit. I'm in the backside eye wall remnant now and those knife edge wind streaks are serious. Things are hitting the roof and I've taken to the basement a couple of times. Lost power briefly with flickers as well. Power back now.
  25. Jet Stream Rider
    Dead calm here now. I think I am in what passes as the remnant eye. Pressure is 29.10. Fell from 29.12 about an hour ago.
×
×
  • Create New...