Jet Stream Rider

You might be far enough south to avoid the worst as there is a persistent northerly component to the forward motion of the system. Its been on the north edge of the guidance all day.

I'm still east of this backside action. I'm in a house that is prone to hurricanes dropping trees on it, and far enough north that it could be an issue this time. Fortunately I do have a good basement partially underground and that's where I'll be when it hits if it hits hard enough to warrant. Pressure is 29.12 and still falling.

Thanks again for all the reports. The worst part of that western flank appears to be in the northern part of the remnant eye wall. Raining heavy here and tropical feeling.

Noting the position of the center of circulation is on the northern portion of the NHC cone from yesterday when it was south of Raleigh. 2pm fix was due west of Raleigh and just a bit due south of Greensboro. Will be interesting to see the 5pm fix. This GOES 16 floater band shows the surface rotation in lighter shade below the darker obscuring outflow. Thanks for all the reports and best of luck to everyone. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=local-NC_VA-05-48-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

In addition to those two 105's, I recall a 106 too I think at Cape Lookout. I'd like to see the officials too though to be sure.

Although being in the north and east section of North Carolina my location has not had many of the horrendous consequences of Florence, this is the second day in a row that I have gotten in an absolutely vicious training feeder band. Precip rates very heavy.

They are currently under a tornado warning. Not seeing or hearing much about that locality specifically, but the whole of the area around Wilmington is in dire straits generally. Local reports and storm alerts: https://nwschat.weather.gov/lsr/#AKQ,CAE,CHS,FFC,GSP,ILM,JAX,LWX,HUN,BMX,EYW,MHX,RAH,RLX,RNK,TAE,TBW,MRX,MLB,MFL/201809130400/201809160433/0110

Water vapor shows that southerly motion that seems evident on radar maybe is not system wide. It does look like that eye wall remnant might make it to Charleston though. Look at the expansive push from the north of that banana high pressure ridge. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=06L&product=wv-mid

Southerly component to the movement is evident lately, past 3 or 4 hrs or so. Myrtle Beach in the remains of the eye at the moment, and the remnant eye wall to their west looks still to have some potency.

Wow! Hang in there man. Best wishes and thanks for the report.

I think it likely that yes, it will stay north and west of Myrtle Beach. But its close and the way it can wobble, hard to say. The main point though is that it did not go directly south and back over water before turning west into MB as some models showed.

Looks to be close to the border just now. Although still in the Tar Heel state I think.

Florence at twilight this evening. Note the flareups near Cape Lookout that will rotate through downeast and central NC. Impressive hurricane.

I would think so. That's exactly where I would expect them. Let us know if you can.

Thanks for the explanation Grit. That helps. Euro is known to overdo wind speeds, kinda like the NAM is (or was) known to overdo QPF. Euro seems best at long range positions.

Dawn as Florence makes landfall.

^ However, ECMWF nailed the general location of landfall 9 days out, before Florence was even a hurricane.

It really did. Almost like its rolling down the coast there just north of Carolina Beach. Learned last night an old friend was riding it out at Carolina Beach. Hope he is OK. Might actually get into the eye.

Landfall Wrightsville Beach. Gusty here in the north part of the state.

Landfall Wrightsville Beach

As the eye contracts and collapses, Florence rolls along the coast and does appear to have a slight southward motion in the westward track. Eye wall onshore. Looks like landfall near Masonboro Island, between Wrightsville Beach and Carolina Beach is immanent.

Really has. Almost like its blown apart. Like an eye wall replacement and Florence is developing a huge eye.

Via radar, the eye wall appears to be very close to and closing on the Surf City area of Topsail Island.

Florence is taking a rather remarkable position in Onslow Bay.

That outer eyewall structure is stretched across most of the Onslow Bay beaches. That structure or band has hurricane force winds in it. The Wrightsville Beach and Carolina Beach area should be in it in an hour or so.