Jet Stream Rider
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Everything posted by Jet Stream Rider
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At dusk Florence is still east of Cape Lookout
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Emerald Isle is in play, might be too far east. I suspect any of the Onslow Bay beaches could get a landfall or part of the eyewall on shore.
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Yeah, that last north move makes me think Cape Lookout rather than Cape Fear. Doubt it will be that pronounced though, but something like you say is certainly on the table. Surf City maybe.
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It could be a wobble. Might wobble due west next, might not. Time will tell. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=06L&product=wv-mid
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NAM 3km shows landfall near Wrightsville Beach at 12z Friday
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For New Bern, if Florence is in Onslow Bay, I'd expect gusts easily over 50mph perhaps hurricane force gusts even and heavy rain. Just some wind and rain does not sound like a reasonable forecast.
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This is what I was thinking. Looks to be coming in high and hot. A little north and a little faster than NHC advisory. Its tricky visually out in the ocean, if there is a variance I'm sure model runs and new advisories will account for it, but it sure is nerve racking thinking its high and hot with so little room for error.
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That is wise. I think we will all be watching on Friday to see position and movement. Position changes will make a difference well inland as we have discussed. Note that the wind field including the extent of tropical storm force winds and hurricane force winds is expanding in the real time analysis of Florence. Also note that there is nothing in the current GFS run that contradicts the NHC products.
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12z GFS makes landfall on Friday vicinity of Wrightsville Beach. That is far enough north to cause some power outages in parts of central and eastern NC especially downeast NC and the sandhills. Raleigh will feel it in this position. Don't let your guard down, Florence is an impressively strong storm and obviously very dangerous.
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Good point. I'll stand corrected then. If it is useful to folks then I'm good with it too.
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Its a misleading graphic, and I think they should change the way they present that information because it will confuse most of the general public. Why show 5% chances in that manner? The information could still be reported, but not in such an alarming and confusing manner.
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That is ****ing amazing. Thanks. I don't recall ever seeing such a report. That energy will propagate into devastating surge for the Cape Lookout region on the projected path.
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Keep check on your local NWS office. Your area could still get eyewall effects if the path ends up that way. If so, you could have down trees and power outages. Local flooding is possible as well.
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Yes, and any slight change will have rather large ramifications inland as you have noted. Thursday night and Friday will be nerve wracking. We are not out of the woods yet, and I know many are still in the thick of it, but there is a chance. Carolina Beach, Kure Beach, Wrightsville Beach, the whole of Topsail Island look to be ravaged.
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This hurricane, being the major hurricane that it is and forward motion this morning of 17mph, roaring into Onslow Bay and coming to a relatively abrupt stop and pivot if it occurs as modeled is really something to behold. I will never complain about a high pressure ridge again and always remember this time. I hope everyone fares well and stays out of the eye wall effects.
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That's an awesome pic. Is it Wrightsville beach? My father was in the eye wall of Hazel, I was in the eye wall of Fran.
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I hear you. It increases the uncertainty. If it does happen like this though, many inland folk will be fortunate to not have that monster eye wall get any closer. Wow. BTW - Irene and Isabel, both left trees on this house.
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A storm that strong even the little wobbles in Onslow bay will make a difference inland. Yikes.
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I'm intrigued by that solution as well. Is there another Ukie run soon?
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Sure. Several models have shown this. Landfall is technically only after the full eye moves over land, so it could brush onshore without making a full landfall and then go elsewhere!
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Agree. If it truly does lose all or practically all steering currents and is just spinning over the ocean like a top, it will tend to bounce off the land mass.
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Incremental change from NHC for 11pm update allowing for forecast southwest motion.
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Screen grab from the Windy.com app using the 12zEuro data showing gust of 124mph on Topsail Island forecast 5am Friday.
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Yes, go by the NWS. They may change those graphics in a day or two to adjust to changing information. They are also in lock step with the NHC. They only change incrementally. If the actual data and the models continue to show a more southern solution, they will adjust as we go through the next 2 days.
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18z HMON shows landfall at 9z Friday near Topsail Island with Flo likely a cat 2 or 3 in previous frame..
