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Jet Stream Rider

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  1. Jet Stream Rider
    Now I have a bunch of autumn leaves that were still in the trees fallen on top of the snow cover!
  2. Jet Stream Rider
    Hey that's my driveway!
  3. Jet Stream Rider
    Yes. The upper level low that spawned the slp that brought the snow, rain and mix today will move over the area and cause an enhancement to precip chances.
  4. Jet Stream Rider
    Gone over to sleet now and its steady. But no zr, pure sleet for the last 15mins or so.
  5. Jet Stream Rider
    Caught this Cardinal while out in it a bit ago.
  6. Jet Stream Rider
    Rippin fatties here wow! No sleet or zr with this band although I had some sleet mix in earlier. Up to 7 inches!
  7. Jet Stream Rider
    Noticed some models reacting to the original upper level energy crossing NC tomorrow as the late diving ull from Canada rounds the bend to our south. Some localized area blobs of hot pink color maxing the snow range on the legend.
  8. Jet Stream Rider
    Still snowing moderate-heavy at times. Mixing with some sleet now but no zr yet. Took the yard stick out and got measurements of 5 inches. More than I thought I'd have at this point. Temp is 31.
  9. Jet Stream Rider
    Still snowing, moderately at times. About 3 inches on the ground so far.
  10. Jet Stream Rider
    Looks like the slp is about to cross into the Atlantic. A lobe of the 1011 into southern Georgia and a 3 point pressure drop near the Savannah coast.
  11. Jet Stream Rider
    Early onset here in the northeastern part of North Carolina. Moderate snow and the ground is covered. This was modeled better by the HRRR than by NAM. Would not be surprised to see these conditions in the vicinity of Norfolk.
  12. Jet Stream Rider
    Also; even with a well placed CAD with very cold air, it will hug the surface and the warm nose will flow right over it resulting in copious sleet or freezing rain. So yeah, the warm nose always wins if it is there at all.
  13. Jet Stream Rider
    Its a good question. My general thinking is that this situation is maybe not a great example of well placed CAD just because the air mass is marginal in its coldness. Also, warm noses are more pronounced with a vigorous slp that is sub 1K and is riding up the coastline. In that case you have strong east or southeast winds that bring an intense warm air temperature advection from the coastal flow. In this case with the slp being rather weak and having a more suppressed track with a more easterly trajectory, the warm nose is less pronounced and is more associated with the slp air mass itself rather than bringing in a massive amount of coastal air. My thinking, Mets or others please feel free to correct this.
  14. Jet Stream Rider
    This morning the NWS moved my county (Halifax) into the WSW area. I'm right on the edge of the piedmont, nothing but coastal plain to my east, so of course I expect a mix with sleet and rain. that initial hit though looks substantial. We have our slp just west of New Orleans this morning, here we go! Good luck everyone!
  15. Jet Stream Rider
    Free sites like Tropical Tidbits, Weathernerds, or Pivotalweather have only the free ECMWF products, other services like precip panels are pay only.
  16. Jet Stream Rider
    Basically every model every run, this thing comes in like a hammer. Radar looks it too.
  17. Jet Stream Rider
    Not sure. Can't see the Euro precip maps
  18. Jet Stream Rider
    0z Euro looks really accelerated
  19. Jet Stream Rider
    Euro at 48, the slp already south of Cape Lookout
  20. Jet Stream Rider
    Upper level feature still back in the vicinity of southern New Mexico. Wow. The system is really stretched out.
  21. Jet Stream Rider
    That trough means business. Thats a 1015 surface low pressure south of Houston now. About 6 hrs or so ahead of schedule I think.
  22. Jet Stream Rider
    You can see the low pressure forming in the western gulf current analysis; Surface frontogensis. Models show a slp in that area by 10z-12z.
  23. Jet Stream Rider
    I'm thinking that for many of us that the threat of zr will be minimized by the marginally cold air mass. ZR accrues more quickly when there is a very cold and dry layer at ground level, this air mass does not have that level of cold, so accrual should be less severe.
  24. Jet Stream Rider
    The RGEM will probably jump back east pretty quick, the slp moves around frame to frame in that rather large area of low pressure as the system organizes.
  25. Jet Stream Rider
    Quite the battle going on just now, a lobe of our big suppressing Canadian HP air mass and our SLP, looking impressive getting organised in the deep southwest. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=continental-conus-10-48-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined
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