Jet Stream Rider
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Everything posted by Jet Stream Rider
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Sure. Several models have shown this. Landfall is technically only after the full eye moves over land, so it could brush onshore without making a full landfall and then go elsewhere!
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Agree. If it truly does lose all or practically all steering currents and is just spinning over the ocean like a top, it will tend to bounce off the land mass.
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Incremental change from NHC for 11pm update allowing for forecast southwest motion.
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Screen grab from the Windy.com app using the 12zEuro data showing gust of 124mph on Topsail Island forecast 5am Friday.
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Yes, go by the NWS. They may change those graphics in a day or two to adjust to changing information. They are also in lock step with the NHC. They only change incrementally. If the actual data and the models continue to show a more southern solution, they will adjust as we go through the next 2 days.
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18z HMON shows landfall at 9z Friday near Topsail Island with Flo likely a cat 2 or 3 in previous frame..
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This is what the 18z FV3 shows through Tuesday. looks to be 6-8 for most mountain areas.
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I think so yes. I suspect the NHC will continue to make slight incremental changes to the cone and positions to account for the model run changes.
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Its a good question downeastnc. 18Z GFS stalls in Onslow bay
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Now that's suppression!
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Our site right here has an excellent model center: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/models/model_center.html/ And the Tropical Tidbits site is also very good: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/
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Current Euro 12z ensemble members for reference
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12z Euro - this amount of rain along with the storm surge will flood Wilmington. Folks should evacuate if unsure of their situation.
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This has to be a surprising look for folks along the coast south of Charleston that may have considered themselves out of the woods.
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This is the first Euro run since it nailed the NC hit on day 9 (day 10?) to show a loop-like motion similar to what the (admittedly) zany GFS has shown. Not the same, and still suppressed, but that stall near Wilmington and then the motion back down the coast a bit before heading west is similar.
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I realize that. And I'm not talking about what I prefer, but rather maybe a slight good spot in an otherwise dreadful situation. Yes the flooding could be similar to what happened with Floyd. And that's the worst I have seen in downeast NC. Still both are true. I think the thing that surprised many people with Hugo, Fran and Hazel is that the fast forward motion brought the worst of the eyewall winds so far inland.
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At least the stall will keep the full strength eyewall winds from getting as far inland as they would with a fast moving system. I'm looking at that as a good thing. Yes, the flooding from rainfall will be worse, but if that is spread out over several days many places will be able to handle it better. And less wind inland means less power outages which keeps the pumps running. I realize its not great, but maybe its something.
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I'm thinking the stall, if it happens soon enough will help a lot of inland folks because it would keep the buzz saw high winds of the eyewall from penetrating too far inland before Flo weakens.
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Check date on that one. 1953?
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After flirting with Ocracoke, it heads back down the coast to make landfall at Myrtle Beach on Sunday.
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Current GFS loops it in the vicinity of Ocracoke Inlet
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Awesome
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Would be nice were this the solution.
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Thought this was an interesting read. Would be great if the stall could happen soon enough and keep this thing to our east. http://www.stormhamster.com/entry/e091018b.htm
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Can't disagree with any of that. You would likely get eye or eyewall in Greenville with that solution.
