SolidIcewx

One Derecho with extra downdraft please

Gotta love when a chance of naders are at your home when your not home

Ohh boy here we go. Another day where I gotta watch home. I’ll take DTX sloppy seconds when it goes SE. sun just came out here and can feel the dews climbing. Ample surface moisture to work with

It’s actually kinda chill post rain. Won’t be saying that in 2 hours tho. Can feel the humidity rise as we speak

If that’s not a sign nocturnal processes are over I don’t know what is. If that continues it’s going to heat up rapidly. Wonder if severe weather today will be something special. Pure sun on top of all that rainfall right after will mallow humidity skyrocket more than what it already is

Just read the SPC outlook and they are hinting at a bowing MCS developing and diving SE before weakening as it moves into the heart of Appalachia. Some prolific derechos have formed after heavy rain events like this

Well that model played out surprisingly well

Some flooded underpasses in Columbus I drove through one flooded with about a foot and a half of water but I got a work truck so I was fine. DTX point at more heavy rains for the Detroit metro later. The NE to SW orientation is quite fascinating and will be a great analog in the future. I feel like one of these days a 10” rain event will happen in the Detroit metro

These storms just keep going. Really special set up right now. Blindsided most of us in the area. I wonder what will fire as the morning goes on

That’s awesome to hear! This is a hell of a MCS especially with its southwest movement. Had my son and fiancé text me in the middle of the night and can’t sleep. I said same thing down in Ohio lol. Still going currently not looking forward to driving in tropical downpours

Holy hell near constant lightning since 2am.. and another round about to come in for my commute. Very prolific have not seen this in a long time. Was actually hard to sleep fully. Things back home by DTW seem rough with the flooding issues

Just read the DTX update and it’s potentially spicy for y’all with even a small chance for supercells

I’ll eat a wild boars ass if this thing turns into a southwest propagating MCS

Interesting KILN update NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... A complicated and low-confidence forecast for tonight is slowly starting to come into slightly better view. The ILN CWA is currently on the southern periphery of a very potent 925mb theta-e advection regime, with high theta-e values extending from the middle Mississippi Valley region through Lake Erie on a generally WSW-to-ENE trajectory. This is currently feeding the severe storm near Cleveland, which has exhibited reflectivity thresholds typical of a severe storm in a near-advisory-criteria heat type of environment (50dBZ to 50kft, for example). Over the next few hours, this feed of theta-e will gradually shift southward, and it appears likely that the continued propagation of this feature (and possible upscale growth into an MCS) will eventually track the feature into central Ohio. At the very least, it seems that convection will get into the northeastern fringes of the ILN CWA (near and northeast of Columbus). The challenging part of the forecast is looking at the potential for further propagation to the south and west, which has been suggested by several models, but very inconsistently in terms of severity and westward extent. Further eroding forecast confidence is the fact that recent HRRR runs have not had a monopoly on either consistent signals for how long the storms will propagate, or even where the current storms are located. The 00Z run seems to have initialized poorly, with real-life storms further west than the model has depicted. The broader model signals would suggest that the storms will hold together as they continue to propagate, but where and when that propagation occurs is something probably better answered by mesoscale analysis. Right now, the location of the instability gradient and the overall wind flow would suggest the ILN CWA will not be unscathed by this activity. Thus, there is medium confidence that central Ohio will be impacted by these storms, and then low confidence in further southward and westward propagation from there. Yes, it would be unusual for storms to move from northeast to southwest, but the vector of the flow of instability into the storms would suggest it is possible. Wherever these storms end up, there is plenty of heat and humidity in the atmosphere to work with -- resulting in threats of damaging wind, large hail, and heavy rainfall / flash flooding. HWO has been updated to reflect higher confidence in this scenario for a handful of central Ohio ILN counties. PoPs have also been increased.

Crazy pre thunderstorm flashes. I remember a night similar to this a few years ago, had flashes before anything was even detected by the radar fully yet. Lots of energy tonight

Its possible never know. Looks to be building towards your way a bit. Some flashes in Macomb county. One tiny flash southeast of flint apperently

Multiple flash flood warnings around Cleveland metro. 2-3 inches has fallen so far

Very interesting flow. I got clouds racing in from the southwest here in Columbus. Just now cleared up and wind slowed down a tad. HRRR drunk I think

Crazy southwest moving MCS. Can anyone explain why? Based off outflow?

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Cleveland OH 824 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023 The National Weather Service in Cleveland has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Erie County in north central Ohio... West central Cuyahoga County in northeastern Ohio... Northern Lorain County in north central Ohio... * Until 930 PM EDT. * At 824 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 13 miles northwest of Lorain to 8 miles northeast of Avon Lake, moving southwest at 30 mph. HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect damage to trees and power lines.

That’s what I seen too. Can move into ILN territory as well. Radar has been interesting to go over. Slowly creeping west with storms now firing over Detroit area in a similar fashion as they did in the thumb region

Some gravity wave action going on.

Honolulu Blue for me.. wasn’t expecting anything this morning but the nws office for Columbus is like club tease level. Just want that nice thunder

Me wondering what the hell ILN is talking about when it comes to a MCS diving out of Michigan

It’s a bit late now. I thought some of the models were bullish but apparently not. Up to 90/72/100 now where I am. Started the day at 64/56/64