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MJO812

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Everything posted by MJO812

  1. Its the truth. Look how the models are getting colder again in the mid range. Truth hurts for some of you.
  2. PV is dipping further south on the gfs. Overrunning looking interesting during the 1st week of december.
  3. Models keep overestimating the ridge in the long range just to lessen it when the time gets closer. We are in a weak la Nina. The south east ridge shouldn't be strong.
  4. Models keep overestimating the ridge in the long range just to lessen it when the time gets closer. We are in a weak la Nina. The southeast ridge shouldn't be strong.
  5. Weeklies should be run every week again instead of daily.
  6. A better pattern still looks on track in December . MJO going into 8. Delayed but not denied ?
  7. You are warmer than the majority of forecasts i have seen on other forums and social media ( hope you fail =) ). The epic December calls by many look like it will fail but a good December is still there. Need the mjo to get out of 7. Maybe we will have a snowy period around the holidays which would be nice.
  8. Models also had mild weather for this time. Thats why its hard to take the long range seriously.
  9. Good in December 2000, bad in 2007 and good in 2008.
  10. Classic Nina December is better for points south . It gets tougher once you get to February .
  11. Not at all. The progression is still there on the MJO and the models . We should be in phase 8 by mid December. Also , the models keep showing warmth in the long range until it gets closer and it cools off.
  12. First half warmth ? I think its will be the opposite if the MJO goes into 8 next month.
  13. Euro weeklies yesterday vs new euro ensembles for the same week. Deamplying the ridge in the east. This is what we need.
  14. We need it to cooperate. It is a bigger factor than the nao imo.
  15. Are they even useful anymore ? Even if they showed cold they shouldn't come out everyday. We have to be patient
  16. I think you will. 12z models are showing a better press with the storms ahead.
  17. Colder trend on the gfs and cmc for those storms. Lets see if it continues.
  18. All the ensembles bring down the cold after the first week. No clue what the panic is right now.
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